Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
We’re going to the Land of Enchantment today on Danonymous, because it’s Zia Park Derby day! That means we’ve got bonus coverage of their program, with FREE picks & analysis from Rob MacLennan (@RobMacASD)!
Rob served as the track handicapper at Assiniboia Downs this summer, and has written for the site on several occasions in the past. We thank Rob for providing this analysis of the racing from Hobbs, New Mexico, and we encourage you to give him a twitter follow.
The first race at Zia today is at 12:10 PM MST, with the featured Zia Park Derby going as race 9, at 3:46 PM MST.
Take it away, Rob!
870 yard races are always exciting. A ton of speed always signs up and it leads to some insane battles and often desperate horses hanging on for the wire late. I’d like to have a horse charging with a head of steam on my tickets here, so my top preference is the #7 Jessa Little Rusty who you can throw out the off track races and is the best closer in the race. Zoomin Racer and Fire Thorn are obvious and logical, but they won’t be great prices in this all out sprint.
$2 Tri 7/1,3\1,3,5,8 $12
$0.50 Pick 4 1,3,7/2,7,9,10/6/5,8 $12
Race 2 – New Mexico Quarter Horse Fillies and Mares Championship
The mares coming out of the New Mexico Classic Championship have to be super tough here. This will include the 2,7 and 10. My top selection is the #10 Running Dragon. She switches post to the outside with #7 Princess jesse, was only beaten a nose by here and will be a better price than her on Wednesday.
$1 Tri 10/2,7,9/2,3,6,7,9 $12
$0.50 Tri 2,7,9/10/2,3,6,7,9 $6
Race 3 – Zia Park Quarter Horse Championship
Trying to beat the 3-year olds here. #6 Jessies First down looks like the most likely winner on the entire card. He’s 14 for 32 lifetime including 7 of his last 8. He won this race last year and looks to repeat and will be a heavy favorite to do so. I wanted to try the 2 and 10 here who have reasons to improve underneath Jessies First Down. Rarin the #10 horse veered in last time and still rallied and other than that one poor effort has been ultra consistent, albeit against less.
$2 Tri 6/2,10/1,2,5,10 $12
Race 4 – Maiden Special weight
2-year-olds going a mile is asking for a stagger fest late in the race. #5 Dream Again showed a little bit of speed first time out, then he rallies second time out after clipping heels. He’s bred to handle a route of ground and goes for a barn that is 15% sprint to route.
$10 WP 5 $20
Race 5 – Zia Park Sprint
#1 Redneck Humor should make the lead on the rail, and that seems like it should be dangerous. He has won six races in a row and ran a huge race off the layoff in Feb of this year. A number of the other main contenders in the field do not have a ton of early speed and this could lead to Redneck Humor who is legitimately fast having a comfortable lead from the rail. Top rider Ry Eikleberry jumps back aboard and he will be the one to catch.
$15 Win 1
Race 6 – Zia Park Distaff
A number of these mares are cutting back in distance and that should keep the pace reasonable. Game Time Decision makes sense and KP Wildcat is in good form with 3 wins in a row but I wanted to try #7 Summer House who was claimed for $80,000 in August, ran second in at stake at Laurel and then had the gas tank go empty at a mile last time. Now she gets to cutback, she has had almost two months and will get a good trip near the pace at a square price if anything near the ML holds.
$6 WP #7 $12
$.50 Super 7/3,4/3,4,6/1,3,4,5,6 $6
Race 7 – Zia Park Championship Handicap
Iron Fist is going to be a huge favorite wheeling back 18 days later off a hard effort in the Dirt Mile where he chased the pace against much tougher. I think he could be vulnerable, and I am going to try #5 Way Striking to beat him. He has been in great form as of late, the barn always thought this horse was super talented but just not always running to his talent. He seems to have turned the corner as a 4-year-old, he should be the speed and be very tough to catch. His win last time was the easiest of types and his race over the surface was actually a good effort as well in the Derby last year.
$8 Win #5
$0.50 Pick 4 5/All/1/1,2,5,6 $24
Race 8 – Eddy County Stakes
New Mexico breds going a mile plus. Wide open race, lots of speed types, no one has tried two turns. Total pass race, and wide open race for me. I ended up looking at the #10 Nowiks Dome because he is 2 for 3 and held well in his wins. He will be a price and who knows who will get the distance. All race in the pick 4 for a reason.
$2 WPS – #10 $6
Race 9 – Zia Park Derby
Untrapped looks like the best horse in the field. He won the Oklahoma Derby last time beating Battle of Midway, he should get a good ground saving stalking trip and he faces much less competition than last time. If I was throwing a longshot in underneath I would try P C Cowboy who off his layoff ran a good race and could have upside to pick up pieces late. You’re to Blame and Chief Know It All just don’t seem like the types to win races like these, but could grind for a piece.
$5 Ex 1-5 $5
$0.50 Tri 1 / 6,7,10/ 5 $1.50
Race 10 – Zia Park Oaks
I know everyone expects me to pick Escape Clause, but she’s a long campaign and I really think she is better around one turn. I’d love to see her win sentimentally, but she’d have to run a new career best at a distance that is probably past her best distance. Ever So Clever will have lots to do but was closing into a slow pace last time. I think #6 Sandy’s Surprise has a couple of very good races going two turns on dirt and her only defeat is against Abel Tasman. She gets back to her surface should be able to stalk and might have her best races ahead of her. Kell Paso is a contender as well, she should keep moving forward off those first two races.
$5 WP – #6 $10
$0.50 Tri 5,6/2,5,6/All $10