Who Do Ya Like?
Picks of the Day Submitted By You!
Monday, August 25, 2014
Jason is a regular contributor to Shapperdacapper.com. We’re thrilled to have him join us with his selections today!
Best of luck to everyone playing along! Take it away, Jason…
Top Plays of the Day:
R3 #2 Magical Moon (2-1)
R4 #1 Overthespeedlimit (7-2)
Boxcars of the Day:
Race 5 #5 Keen Pauline (8-1)
Race 8 #11 Lil’ Zilla (6-1)
Race 1 is steeples and we will pass.
Today’s .50 Pk 5 suggestion:
67/27/147/1569/3458 96$ investment
The first leg of the early pick five is a state bred allowance race for N1X going 6F. We are not going to go against the grain as both ML favorites look solid in here. Cuantos (7) made a nice middle move in his debut for a trainer that doesn’t look to win first out. He returned and blasted a group while well in hand throughout on a day we liked this colt. Mark Hennig does very well when he uses Rajiv Maragh winning .20% for a $3.19 ROI. This horse has an edge over the second choice as the time away is slightly concerning for Giantinthemoonlite (6). We have not seen this one since his maiden score first out when he was heavily supported bet down from 8-1 to 7-2 and won for fun. Likewise the connections of Bruce Brown and Javier have been awesome for quite some time winning almost .30% from an 84 horse sample in the last 18 months. Swell (2) is the only danger on paper to these two having faced Captain Serious in his last two races and Samraat in his last race as a 2YO. Station Chief (4) has been in a bit of a tale spin but showed signs of life in his last. We will take Broadway Bay (3) for fourth.
Race 3 is a 5.5 optional claimer on the Mellon Turf Course. ML favorite Indian Splendor (4) will fire out and try to take this field coast to coast. Both Macaroon (1)and Double the Energy (4) do not possess the sprint speed at 5.5 to get the lead here. However, perhaps they can hound her just enough to set this race up for Good So Far (7)for the Clement Stable. This gal won her state side debut but has been defeated twice over the turf since. In her two latest she left behind a slow early pace that was not conducive to her late kick. Spun Silky (5) has had a poor 2014 campaign after a solid 2013 and does not offer good enough value. Irad abandons her as well but she does get Castellano he is a scary omission these days. Magical Moon (2) certainly has the talent to beat this field and has good tactical speed that should serve her well versus these. She needed that last race badly and was fanned six wide. She likes this course and distance and Stall kills it 2nd off the layoff. She is one of the day’s best.
Race 4 is a maiden claimer of 50K at 6F. The program pick is Mr. Classic Seneca (3)on a drop for trainer Steve Asmussen. He will be over bet coming off a second place first out effort and a fourth place finish in a “stakes” race. It should be noted those races were restricted to Texas breds and the drop in for a tag means the connections do not see a promising future against state bred company in Texas. He is beatable. We will definitely throw out G Five (6) for Todd Pletcher. We have seen a number of his runners this meet that debuted in special weight races at long odds and often at obscure tracks dropped in for a tag and then show nothing. The top choice and a play of the day isOverthespeedlimit (1) for Tony Dutrow and Irad Ortiz. Dutrow is great with debut maiden claimers firing at 27% with a $2.58 ROI. There is not much to stand in his way and he should be able to win at first asking. Rudy Rodriguez is also deadly debuting with maiden claimer,s and his first time starters have been runners at all levels this meet. The knock on Banker’s Boss (7) is the obscure owners and a low profile jock. However, Arroyo wins at 18% for Rudy which is much higher that his win percentage for the year so he gets some live ones for this barn. Dinner Time (4) can definitely be used in your verticals as Bruce Brown and Castellano kill it together, but do not think for a second we get 12-1. Chris Englehart is an underrated conditioner and these owners like to win races. 10-1 is generous value on Hundred Percent (2) with a long work tab. Although we are discouraged they chose not to try special weight state breds just once. Kool Kat Strut (8) debuts for a trainer we like with babies and can be used. The work tab is light on Grandpa’s King (9) but he is not without hope.
Race 5 is a maiden special weight at 1 1/16th on the lawn. You leave Graham Motion out at your own risk and he has been especially tough with Rajiv up of late. My Senses (1)obviously has a big shot for the Augutin Stable. Chad Brown is a must use with debut runners going long on the grass. His relevant statistics are stunning with this move. He has a postivie ROI across the board so Lady Eli (9) should be included. Classy Teacher (6) hails from the Michael Maker stable that is just fantastic with debut turf runners. We see Javier is aboard suggesting she is live. There is a legitimate chance that Keen Pauline (5) is a runner for the Stonestreet Stables. Her un-raced broodmare was bred to Dynaformer, Pulpit, and Tapit so far and this suggests they obviously think highly of her. Romans is good with horses debuting at a distance of ground and the works have been solid. It does not hurt to see that Joel sees fit to ride either so we have made her our boxcar selection here. George Weaver has had a great Saratoga meet the last two years but 1st turf and 1st time starters going long are not his forte so we will pass on bothMozambique Gold (3) and Ocean Form (7). Puca (4) and stable mate Hail Cornell (10) should move forward with a race under their belt for Bill Mott but we know nothing of these owners for either horse. The latter’s mom has thrown a couple nice ones so we much prefer her.
The last leg of the pick five is a 20K claimer at 7F on the main track. Readthebyline (1)takes a big drop in class and can win here but we plan to spread in the pick 5 with some pricy horses. This horse freaks on occasion but if you throw out the Michelle Nevin induced effort three back he is a horse with serious issues. Stable mate Ancient Rome(1A) is uninspiring as well. Bemata (6) has the look of damaged goods as well. Dropped in for 25K by Chad he did not run one step. Maker could resurrect him but at 3-1 it is not advised. Joan’s Choice (4) takes the drop in class that Jacobson does well with and it is encouraging to see Joel up as it is one of the few positive ROI propositions for this trainer. Love to Run (1) goes route to sprint but since Kimmel is 0-28 with that move and he will likely get speed burnt early. He is an underlay here. The last effort by Volastic (3) was awful but he was given a breather and should enjoy the pace set up today. 15-1 is good value so we will use this one. Donna Green has done well form limited chances this meet and CapitalCity (5) is not without hope at a big price. Road Agent (7) is a quitter and is hurt by the other speed no thanks.
The first leg of the late pick 4 is a 40K claimer for N2L going 5.5 on the Mellon Turf Course. Zamquick (3) is the program pick dropping in for the tag. She draws a bad group but 2-1 is a short price to take on a struggling 3-68 jockey. We have reluctantly made her our top choice since she is the only experienced true 5.5 turf horse in here but we will spread to others. Benny’s Bullet (6) likes to go for the lead but if she can run a race similar to the one two back it puts her in the mix. Ever Awesome (4) is intriguing for a trainer that does well with this type. She has not shown good enough early sprint speed or an ability to close that would make her a top choice. Lady Luciano (2) goes route to sprint for weak connections and could offer value if she is able to save ground and rate a little. This filly ran OK in her first effort over the grass for a little known barn. Saratoga Karaoke (1) has been no factor in her last two against others in here at the same level. 5-1 doesn’t seem right even with Irad Ortiz getting the leg up. She is one of two horses that have shown an ability to close sprinting on the grass. The other isDattts Da Boss (8) who figures to run on late but the 1-19 lifetime is troublesome.
Race 8 is a NY bred Maiden Special Weight at 1 1/16th. This is a tough heat for sure. I can promise you will not be using 0-18 Jenny’s Creek (8) who has burned an unbelievable amount of money of late. She is stretching our today and we see no reason that will help. Without the presence of much speed Javier will probably have her out on or near the lead and she will find a way to lose despite him. Maura’s Pass (10) was a disappointment in her first turf try for a barn that usually has them ready. However, the pace was excruciatingly slow that day so she can get one pass. (No pun intended) Our top pick however will be Lil’ Zilla (11) who goes to the Morely stable. She drew a tough post but this barn is starting to click and we are pleased to see her move back to protected maidens. Piccolo Flats (2) draws well again today and will probably look to show a little more tactical speed from the inside and could work out a nice trip. Traipse in Utopia (1) draws the rail and we expect better today.
Race 9 is the Smart N Fancy at 5.5 on the grass. Free as a Bird (8) has been an absolute beast of late and this mare seems to have plenty of pace signed on to set up her explosive kick. She is our top play. Madame Girvy (11) loves this course and looks to be rounding back into form. She didn’t have the cleanest of trips and will also appreciate the early pace presence in here. Speedinthruthecity (12) is an interesting horse as she has had success in her only turf starts and has been on a steady improve until she spun her wheels in the slop in her latest. Stars Above Me (9) will be well supported for certain. She encountered a ton of trouble in her state side debut and won for fun. She tackles older horses today which is very significant and she will probably be an underlay. That said she could win. Believe in Charlie (7) hates a turf with give and could really balloon this number if the course is firm. To My Valentine (3) will likely try to wire this field out but we don’t believe she is good enough having won only 2/12 at a distance the best horses tend to just love it. She will probably hang on for a minor award.
The finale is a 40K state bred claimer on the Inner Turf Course. This is a very weak group of horse flesh. Miss Motivation (1) has run on for a share in 6/9 races but 7-2 is a low price to take on a low percentage trainer and jock in a full field. We get the feeling she will plod along for a smaller award again today. Kelly’s Miss (5) should appreciated the return to turf and gets a positive jock change but 3-1 is a little rough considering her last three efforts were horrid. We have chosen Lutheran Miss (10) as our top pick. This filly drops into the claiming ranks and goes sprint to route. She should be on or near the lead and can beat this field with the slightest improvement. Lovely Lanie (8) is an interesting longshot as she has had only one chance and could shock this group for a good barn. Bi Light of Day (9) is similar to Miss Motivation as she had plenty of chances but usually only plods past tired horses.
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