Who Do Ya Like?
Picks of the Day Submitted By You!
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
We’re headed back out to Saratoga on Wednesday where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from handicapper John Massey (@JTMassey79).
John put a lot of time and effort into this card for us and we appreciate. Give him a follow on Twitter and good luck if you’re playing along. Take it away, John…
R2 Ladder W/P on 3 On a Snowy Evening
R6 Exacta Box 3,8
R7: Exacta 3, w/ 7,8; 4 w/ 3,7,8
R8: W/P 10 Queen to Be
R9: W/P 5 Scatcapade
R10: Sizable W/P on 13 Jimmy Soul; 12 Identity Crisis is play if 13 not in
Late P4: 2,3,7 w/ 4,6,10,11 w/ 5 w/ 5,6,7,12,13 = $30 for .50
INDIVIDUAL RACE ANALYSIS
R2: I looked at this race for more than an hour. Looks like they’re dropping the 2 in to the claimer to finally get the horse a win. Is dirt the horse’s best surface? Can’t endorse a horse who is not reliable getting out of the gate, including the last race. Brandini is making it too much of a tendency to finish second.
I came to 3 On a Snowy Evening with Junior Alvarado. I think the horse will have odds similar to morning line of 5-1. I view change from Mejias to Alvarado as a positive. I am encouraged by races on main track at Aqueduct with 2 turns and think form there in bulkier fields may translate well to Saratoga’s maiden race.
R3: Most Likely Winner: 6 Willet is 7/5 morning line, was not flattered by the clunker thrown in by a favored La Verdad on Monday in the G2 Honorable Miss; however, La Verdad’s form prior to that race was impeccable. Willet was unable to go by that horse despite cracking fractions at Belmont on 3rd of July; however, was strong effort in first race of 2014. Expect to be tighter and very difficult to beat.
R6: This race smells like it would be won by the sharp Suffolk shipper in 3 My Tee Time, who has sparkled since the McCarthy claim. I’m interested in the Klesaris charge shipping from Parx in 8 Kelwynne. Kelwynne has been pitted in small field allowance optional claimers versus a very sharp foe in Conga Bella. Mama Zee finished better than a favored Conga Bella in January at Aqueduct — Mama Zee is 2-1 ML and Kelwynne is 4-1 ML. See how Here’s Zealicious runs in the 3rd — a good showing flatters Kelwynne and I think makes a place here in R6.
R7: 3 Benny’s Bullet is my selection. Positive jockey change to Irad Ortiz, Jr. for new trainer Gary Gullo. Gullo 1st off claim usually not a profitable angle; however, blinkers going on for Gullo is. Stretches the extra furlong to an even mile.
Other R7 Notes: 4 horse for Cornelio/Rudy has had excuses since breaking maiden. 7 Sundae School at 1/17 is not worth a short price. 8 Wine Burglar is going to be dependent on pace; though, fortunes may improve with rain to the turf course, which tends to help even things out for the closers. Watch the toteboard on the 2 — first time Schosberg usually not profitable; however, 3rd off layoff and gigantic jockey change to Johnny V with huge improve in post position for turf routes on the inner turf.
R8: 10 Queen To Be — Despise the post, but might be beneficial for a horse that has a knack for finding trouble. Been caught up in traffic around the final turn in last 2 efforts, including the race at Monmouth as the favorite. Concern is the lack of quality in performances on NYRA circuit. Could it be a matter of surfaces [Aqueduct with inner track and Belmont on the turf]?
Also using Tiz May West, who I think is actually best in field, but has raced so little that I am not sure if I believe myself. Upset as favorite by Devious D’Oro, who came back and ran a tepid 3rd in field of 6 in ungraded Roxelana Stakes at Churchill Downs; however, that was the first start by Tiz May West in a year. More fit for 2nd race?
R9: The Coronation Cup — My Big Play — 5 Scatcapade — rough start in last at Belmont when drawing the rail for Rosario, running on the heels of a rival and dropping back to last before a mild run in stretch. Much better post position today, in a field that is wide open. Winner from last race ran 3rd in ungraded stakes on Woodbine poly in next start out; runner-up from last race ran 2nd in ungraded turf stakes at Monmouth Park at 8.5 furlongs. Also feel pace scenario will set up for this horse off the pace, as 3,4,6,8,10 all have shown best races when setting the tempo.
R10: If 13 Jimmy Soul draws in, he will deservedly be the betting favorite. All Included, who was well meant in the maiden victory, came back to win on the first Saturday of the meet in an allowance race at odds on. Uptown Joe and Jimmy Fillpot were in the same race as Soul and All Included; Fillpot was hard ridden to hold 3rd and Uptown Joe saved ground and made no progress in stretch, showing no real drive.
If 13 is not in, and even if he is, I’d put a play on 12 Identity Crisis. May 18 has turned in to a carousel of horses gradually breaking their maidens since that race. Special Agent, who won that race, finished 4th in an opening day allowance at the Spa. Sheldon, who finished 2nd, broke maiden next time out and then finished 5th in the Belmont Derby Invitational. I don’t think this horse is going to be 12-1, despite the ML; I think 7-1 would be fair value at taking a stab on this horse on a firm turf course.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE.
PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.