Who Do Ya Like?
Picks of the Day Submitted by You!
Monday, August 4, 2014
Today, we take a rare but exciting trip up to Assiniboia Downs for Manitoba Derby Day! We’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from first time guest handicapper, Rob MacLennan (@maclr11).
We thank Rob for sharing his selections and wish you all good luck if you’re playing along!
Best Bet of the Day:
Race 6- #6 Ciaran’s Prize
Longshot of the Day:
Race 5- #7 Rite to Rule
15% takeout 10,000$ Guaranteed Pick 4 Ticket:
Race 1: The card opens with Maiden fillies going a route and morning line favorite #7 Remiewarningbluz is vulnerable. #1 Smartdressed Woman had to check severely last time and was making up ground down the lane. She should be a nice price and appreciate the stretch-out in distance. Picks: 1-7-2-5
Race 2: #1 Just One Survivor and #6 I’minittowinit have the best chance to defeat #2 Solar Time who looks to win 4 in a row. I would like to also play against Solar Time who is due to regress again. Just One Survivor moves up off an easy maiden win while I’minittowinit comes in off a freshening for a barn that has done well recently with layoffs between 31-60 days (.23% 1.79 ROI). Picks: 6-1-2-7
Race 3: #7 Truly a Mist poses a speed threat at a generous price in Race 3. Afternoon cards are notoriously speed biased and Truly a Mist should not get too much pressure early. She can be a major contender. The other contenders are the logical horse’s #1 Legs Eleven, #4 Foggy Dew and #5 Cal Bayers. Picks: 7-1-5-4
Race 4: The 30K Graduation Stakes. #1 Racyrae will be tough from the rail and she was impressive in her career debut but the two first time starters are interesting to me. #3 Spider’s Alibi goes for a barn that has dominated 2yo racing here at ASD and has the pedigree to be a nice racehorse. (Lookin at Lucky out of a mare that made over 400k Miss Missile). #4 Sly Gold has been ultra-impressive in the mornings and was a 31k purchase at the OBS June Sale. Picks: 4-1-3-2 (15% Pick 4 Wagering 10K Guaranteed)
Race 5: The fifth looks to set up perfectly for #5 Barramoon and he will be a major contender, but with all the pace in the race I ended up liking #7 Rite to Rule who got into trouble last time down the lane and well benefit greatly from a fast pace in front of him. Picks: 7-5-6-1
Race 6: The 50K Assiniboia Oaks. #6 Ciaran’s Prize is a tough invader who should be able to get a good trip, control the pace and if she runs back to her last race be incredibly tough. She is my top selection with Quincy Hamilton riding and Joel Berndt shipping in. Underneath I like #7 Idling to be second as she looks to really want the distance a lot more than her speedy stablemate #5 Aware.
Picks: 6-7-1-5 (Best Bet of the Day)
Race 7: The seventh is a difficult race with a lack of pace and some horses that spot rough forms. I am taking a shot on #5 At the Ritz who stretches out off a quick sprinting effort. He goes for a barn that can win races here and his pedigree looks to be route. He will also be a good price and close to the early pace. Other horses to consider were the droppers #6 Bornean and #9 Catfightnwildnites along with closers #2 Degrees of Brad and #4 Magnetic Jazz. Picks: 5-4-9-2
Race 8: The 30K R.J. Speers. The big matchup of the day between #4 Magic D’Oro and #5 Balooga Bull. These two have traded blows for three starts now and this looks to be no different. Balooga Bull once again holds an advantage because he should be loose on the lead,but I would not be surprised to see Magic D’Oro pressuring him once again. If the two big horses falter #6 Prince Raphael will be the one to catch them. Picks: 4-5-6-2
Race 9: The 75K Manitoba Derby. A field of seven competes in the biggest race of the year. Steve Asmussen ships in a runner #7 Street Prancer from Indiana and he should ensure a fast pace. Three other horses in the race want the lead and it should ensure a fast pace. I am against the favorite #1 Master Lightning. He has not looked great on the track and exits a very poor performance. I will take the two closers in the field, #2 Wilko Rum who exits a tough Allowance race at Mountaineer and J.D. Acosta flies in to ride along with #5 Jet Again who should improve in his second route try this year for a very high percentage barn. I will take Wilko Rum over Jet Again because I think the last furlong will help Wilko Rum more than it will help Jet Again. Picks: 2-5-7-6