Monday, January 13, 2014
Picks of the Day Submitted By You!
We’re headed back out to Aqueduct today, where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from first time guest handicapper, @Belmontberad.
We thank Brad for sharing his picks today (with visual aids) and wish you luck if you’re playing along. Take it away, Brad…
The 1/13/2014 Aqueduct card presents a difficult puzzle. After the inner began to show a glimmering gold rail going into Saturday, the rain emerged and quickly turned the track into sloppy/ muddy. In my years of capping, I have never seen such a complete reversal from one polar opposite to the other. While the track hastened throughout yesterday’s card, the fairness of the track followed. There will always be a front end/less steps/min effort to lead or around turn at all NYRA tracks, but the BiG A seems the most neutral, IMO.
Tip of the day: Download and print out each card you intend to bet. Equibase does a nice job providing a lot of information in the speed figure analysis. Here is an example of the first two races.
A visual representation of the race allows you put the horses in each starting gate & based on past performances; try to the best of your ability to forecast the outcome.
The speed fig card also shows you last pace, avg last 3 pace, highest pace, last beyer, avg last 3, highest lifetime, jockey trainer ITM, and most importantly win % of each post and class ratings. Class isn’t everything, but it is imperative under certain situations. Furthermore, for MSW, they outline the success of the sires/dams. In these cases I like to look at the parents and their results. If both parents won their first race I always include (in picks pools). It’s a logical angle I’ve developed. 2 horses on today’s card meet that requirement. For example, if both parents won debut sprints with front running style ( dominant msw wins in high pedigree (outclass)) theres a ton of value vs trainers who have better stats with 2yo, maidens, etc. That horse is better for this spot, now.
It is my opinion that gathering as much information as possible gives you the slight edge over the competition and the ROI to beat the high % take outs.
Tip 2: Pot odds. To be a successful bettor, you have to understand the pot odds of horse racing. You have to synthesize your horses odds with an appropriate win percentage to arrive at ROI. Perfect example is sportswriter, the 4 in the 7th. While I think his odds will tick up to 1/1 ( rare) 4/5 suggests that he wins this particular race at about a 2/3 clip. I’ll save you the math. So after capping I see him winning at a 1/3 rate. So if I do this 100 times. I win 33. I lose 67. On 100, 1 dollar bets, I will lose 33 dollars ( and that’s at 1).
Onto the card…
16k claiming, fillies and mares, non winners of 3.
1 and 4 battle for the lead. 7 sits behind duel. Closes them out . 7-1,4-6 Cornelio Valesquez has had an extremely disappointing meet. He is supposed to be the best jockey in the current colony, but hes not getting it in ( the winner’s circle) enough. With the track flopping, its hard to anticipate the dynamic of it effecting the dynamic of races. So no absolutes here. Think the 1,4,7 will be tactical, and race comes down to them. Think 7 outclasses others unless stays wide who trip. Should tuck in behind on 2 p.
7 haldane top choice
1,4 ah gaga & magmmmaaaaaaaaaaaaa co second choices
Really hard to cap ex,tri, etc of maiden races. I feel like keying the horse or horses you like at odds is the most successful formula. To say you can predict orders of horses with no previous running information is whimsical at best. I really focus on pedigree, trainer, spots, and general race/track dynamic. In this race I couldn’t help but play the pletcher 2nd time starter angle, the 3, killer crossover. However, for Rajiv the winners circle has been a Maragh… (0 for 28) has been second 7 times nad 3rd 6th. The 5 is is 15-1 ML. First boxcar of the day. Horse has been working well. Pops is hard spun. Moms is 14/55 fts, 25%. Only the 4’s mom has put anyone else in the starting gate, and is 3/11 27%. After looking at the race again, can’t love anyone, but can make a case for almost all. 1 has super pedigree. Decent trainer stats yet no lasik. 2 is favorite, but don’t like him to win here. 4 has a forumula for success. For whatever reason I prefer non winners to have a good work then an average one leading up to a race. Obviously, ofcourse unless the horse is a beast.
In picks pool Im using 1,4,5 contrarian. Think one of them takes the top spot and the 2,3 sneak in for second and or third. Hard to find value, passing otherwise. Use the information to your adv/ disadv!
Hard not to like point taken, the 1 in this spot. Tough little claiming race here. One thing I like to look at it with odds is how does that horse do with those odds. The 5, seems to relish his 5:1 range. This is important in a relative sense. Its equally important to looking at how horses do as favorites, the second layer.
Very open race. Think the 2 will fold. 1-5-3
1st choice Point Taken
2nd Choice Social Saul
3rd Groomed for Victory
Race 4: 5.5f maiden claiming.
Took a unique rout here. Really unimpressed with the favorite Kicknbutt. Not super impressed by any others , except the gelded 5; astronomo. Really like this angle/spot and should get decent odds. My longshot is the speed, the 2, maybrys challenge. I have been betting against this one for a while, (has helped a few meldowns 4 daddy to win at odds) but I think he has the ability to outrun an inexperienced field. Good value at ML 8:1.
1st choice Astronomo
2nd choice Maybrys Challenge
Really like joking on the dropdown, the 6. Super tough 6f claiming field ( at this price). Think he will be much the best. My son or mi hijo, the 8, looked good last time out against much worse. Ludo Bagman is a logical choice if dynamic suits him.
1st choice Joking, 6
2nd choice Ludo Bagman, 2
3rd choice and boxcar is Stonehenge, the 3. Don’t like putting in for price in terms of confidence, but a lot of unknowns… could score big at big price, lots of unknowns.
4th choice my hijo, the 8.
Wide open MSW, 6 F. Thrill hill is the obvious play, second time starter, first time lasik. The ryhthymist, the 7 has dangerous speed. The 1 has tangerous parents. Both won first time start. 4 could pull upset. Passing race individually. Liked the story on the scratched 3.
1st choice 6, Thrill Hill
2nd choice 1, tapitation
3rd choice, 7
Boxcar, 4 , but passing most likely on this one. Hedge material though.
Think it’s a 3 horse race between the 4,5,6. Parx shipper at odds, 6 intrigues. Don’t like 1:1 or less on the class, sportswriter. The 5 is other class. Really don’t love this race. 3 could be sneaky. As stated above, much more value on the 5 and 6 per pot odds. It may be a losing bet against the 4, but if you successfully fade him, you make money in the long run.
Because of a really bad morning line… choices
1st: 5, isntlovejustgrand
2nd: 6, Armed USA
3rd: 4, sportswriter
Race 8: Really tough race to cap for me. 1 1/16 allowance for 4 year olds and up. Running out of time. I’m playing two horses in the picks, but realize the 11,12 are logical upsets as well as live dogs. Im playing the 5,9. AE in tough spot, but like stretching out for the Malibu moon product
1st choice 9: Sinistra
2nd choice 5: Sea to sky
3rd choice : AE Escape to the Moon, 14.
Race 9: Tough maiden claiming.
Think the trainer angle is the 4, on the inner track. Pullback, super great ROI. Can happen. 3 logical choices are 3,6,9.
1st choice 3.
2nd choice 6
Co 3rd 4,9.
This site is for YOU, the horse player! If I can’t handicap a certain track on any particular day and you want to share your picks, just let me know and I’ll post them here.
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