Happy Memorial Day weekend everyone! This card today is super competitve. Good luck!
4 – Has not run in 10 months. Servis is 30% first time. Should blow these away if ready. My concern, Y in for a tag?
2- Servis outstanding 2nd off the layoff. Nice 2nd last start in 10 horse field. Moves up but may sit the trip
7- Super tough connections in Plesa/Lopez. Has run 3 times in 12 horse fields. My concer, 1 published work in 2 months may be a short horse
6- No one has come ready to Monmouth more then unknown trainer Andrew Mitchel 6-3-1-0. Needed last and should get a piece late.
2- Strictly the 1 to beat. One of only 2 singles on the day. Navarro is unreal at monmouth. Should move to the front and not look back
1- Lost all chance last time in sprint after being bumped. Two races at 1 mile plus in ALW last yr at Mon were solid. May have a good trip and hit board at big price.
4- Drops off 10 month layoff. Should have to need one. In a weak field may still be there for a piece.
3- Figures in this condition to plod along for a share as he has done 3 of last four starts.
Race 3 (IMO these are the only 3 who can win this race)
1- Navarro again. Should have an ideal trip and run these down late. Concern: Too far back early
3- Cibelli is off form and not very good with first time blinkers. However should sit right behind leader and makes big drop. (Have a feeling cibelli is trying to get off the snide with this one). Should be live
6- Moya/Moya t/j combo. Moves way up in condition. However, if dagnabit does not go with should be out by 3. Shot to steal
5- Servis drops this one big. 2 races back aired against tougher. If runs back to that race this race is long over.
6- 5 month Layoff for Andrew Mitchell. Won last time in this ondition at Gulfstream. Should be ready to roll. Winner if the 5 doesnt blow them out.
2- Moya/Moya. The horse is clearly off form. Takes a minor drop. Threw up a very impressive work 47.3h 4/78 and moya is 47% out of 17 starters route to sprint.
Race 5 (Great 5 1/2 furlong turf race)
4- I have crushed this horse last two times. Things clearly went awry for this horse last year after she beat IMLD and finishes 2nd to shangai bobby. 2 starts in a row now has galloped at 15k and 35k. Moves up but the race is loaded with speed. Bravo/Servis should sit the trip and handle these
2- Last race was 1st turf and he galloped by 4 on the lead. Notice front bandages were taken off for last. May wire from the rail again at a nice price. Inside post is a huge plus way monmouth track is set up on these turf sprints
7- Should show a lot of earlyspeed. Faltered 2 back in stakes race at lrl at very end but lost by 2 to 2 next out winners. Could hold on for a share. 2nd off layoff
8- Plesa/elvis. Meets elders and could finish strongly if elvis doesnt try to press the 2,7. Wouldnt be a shock
6- (Pattern Navarro dropping) Navarro one again spotting his horses well. Drop for 3rd off the ayoff. Should sit right off and win. Concern beaten fav last two out
5- Takes a minor drop and should sit off. 2nd off layoff. Conern no works. 5 starts at distance w 2 wins.
1- Was in great form prior to 6 month layoff. May sneak in for a share.
10- after a 11 month layoff ran evenely in last. However, Monmouth has been very speed favoring. If track plays fair tom could hit the board at a big price
Race 7 (Best bet) Tri 6-3,5,7,8 Super 6-,3,5,7,8/all
6- Just broke Maiden by 7 (I generally hate playing horses who just broke their maiden especially when 2/5 after 4 uninspriging starts. Gets bravo on turf which is great but ensure you wont get the 5-1 listed price. The reason is my best bet, because their is NO SPEED in this 10 horse field. SHould have a big headstart and not look back
7- Kelly breen moves this one to the turf after two terrible races on poly. Gave a 3 month freshner and put in 2 solid works. If elvis is patient should get a piece.
8- Plesa/Lopez Is always flying late. I anticipate he will pick up the pieces once again. Distance suits.
3&5- both are well spotted here and both have been working well for trainers who know how to bring them ready.
Race 8- Statebred Allowance. The S stands for STOPPER (I will hit all button this race) I have no opinion in a race I will inevitably cap 10 more times with the same field till they all break condition. My advice whatever you play, do not play the favorite.
1- Off for 10 months. Andrew Mitchel as discussed a lot is brining these horses ready. Was running im Ireland carrying 131. Now carries 120, gets lasix and is not meeting 20 horse field. He was bet everytime in ireland. 5 works for this
4- Plesa/Lopez. In 2011 ran big figs against tough company. Went completely off form in 3 starts in 2012. Ran March at tampa in similar and finished a decent 3rd. If improves and finds 2011 form could surprise at nice price.
9- Cibelli (WHile I have a rule to not play her until she proves she can train) These horse looks well meant in this position. 3rd start off layoff. first for cibelli. Concern only 1 listed work. In all races keeps meeting next out winners.
6- Has solid beyers and should appreciate cut back. Mcburney hasnt been training great lately but he is a solid trainer who will find his rythm. Serpa up. Could gun and try and still this race.
1- Was an absolute freak for 3 races in a row. Almost stole the G1 Phipps last yr if it wasnt for its tricky nailing her late. Then threw up two horrendous races and got laid up. If she runs this will be a public work out. Use and Loose.
Rest of field- All run well and no horse would be a surprise.
7- Bravo/Clement which is typically as automatic as it gets at Monmouth on the turf. Horse gets class relief moving from 5 graded races to a stake. 2nd off the layoff will be very tough to stop in the lane.
6- Chad brown ships this one in after impressive US debut. Broke terribly and still one. If improves should be very tough. Important to note brown rarely ships to Monmouth. Not sure why he isnt running this one at belmont. Gut says this horse will be an overbet short horse but tough to ignore form.
10- Lone speed in a race with none. Always quits and added distance not a plus. Add to that 8lb pick up tough to see. However, ,may be out by 5 lengths and if the rail is out probably wont catch. If the rail isnt out I will be chucking this one.
5- Rose and motion team up for an improving horse. Appears a cut below top two but Motion knows how to send them ready. 3rd off layoff horse seems primes.
Race 12 $20 exacta straight 3 w 6. 10$ trin 3-46.
3- Absolutely huge drop for orseno. Moving from 20k to 5k. Horse clearly is not a slop horse. Last 3 starts on fast track would pummel these. If doesnt break down you wont have to route.
6- This horse has shown absolutely nothing. Juan Serey hasnt been the same. However, serey and elvis clip at 26% w 27 starters. 1st time serey. Have no idea why elvis lands here. Funny feeling he is going to cheat and create a very nice exacta
4- Rudy Rodrgiuez dropping. So even though the horse always quits its Rudy. I have seen him win with much less.