Picks of the Day Submitted By You!
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Today, we head out to Del Mar, where there’s a nice Pick 6 Carryover. Our friend @tracksidejive (Matt Milligan) was kind enough to share some FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS in the races involved in the sequence.
Good luck if you’re playing along! Take it away, Matt…
R3: A: 7,5 B: 2,6 C: 4,8
Heard good things from Brad Free about the 5’s gallop out last race on Steve Byk’s show. Open length win at this track and should get a good trip since looks to be fastest early. 7 had a rough start last time and was only 1 length back of the 2, who was equally chalky in that race but may be a chronic show horse. That said, don’t let the margins fool you. The 2 chased two next out winners and was right there for 2nd. 6 is a wild card off the maiden win and the layoff. Others could win if they wake up.
R4: A: 2,10 B: 4,7 C: 8,9,5,1
2 is a possible single. First time at this level and 3rd off layoff for new barn that’s solid off the claim. 10 is 1 for 17 but has some solid speed figs and is 4/4 ITM this year with some close calls at this level. After those 2 it gets tough. 4 is off a layoff but gets Bejarano and ran 2nd vs tougher previously. 7 is dropping & could improve 2nd off layoff. The rest have been slow lately but some close calls and solid earlier figs so not impossible.
R5: A: 4,9 B: 3,5 C: 7,2,10
4 is a possible single. On paper looks to like being 2nd, but is lightly raced and been game every start. Beaten last race by a 3/5 shot loose on the lead. Of the rest, the 9 interests me most: speed, and only horse in field to lead a race. Only 1/4 length behind the fav 1st off the layoff and could wire them. 3 was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths on debut by the fav. Bullet work and travels a few lbs lighter. Any improvement puts in the mix. 5 gets jockey upgrade off a 3rd to next out winner. 7 dangerous: long layoff but fastest figs. 2 debuted in a stake & will probably like grass.
R6: A: 8,3 B: 7,2 C: 5,9,10,1,4
Probably spread here. 8 is working well and gets Bejarano. 3 is probably the inside speed and works out a nice trip. Consistently ITM so far. 7 is off a long layoff but was stakes entered in its 2nd and 3rd races and just missed vs similar before the break. Needs to run faster though. The 2 is a closer off a year layoff. Not the kind I’d normally include, but was a 2X stakes winner before the break and note the steady worktab with 3 consecutive sharp works. 5 not an AW pro but looks well within reach.
R7: A: 9,2 B: 5,6 C: 1,3,5
9 & 2 look very logical. Trip trouble for the 2 last time and the inside draw could give the advantage. Other experienced runners in here need to get faster. Of those, give the edge to the 6, a filly with an open length win on this surface. But the 5 is a very interesting firster: consistent worktab & a couple nice drills recently. Not the fastest bunch and trainer has won 1st out vs winners before, so wouldn’t be surprised.
R8: A: 8,2 B: 12 C: 3,6,10,11
8 is a possible single. Off a year layoff and dropping all the way down from MSW. Plenty to be suspicious about but if she shows the early speed displayed in both races they may never catch her. After that it gets dicey. Prefer the 2. Drops in class of a 3rd last race, is 2nd off a layoff, and with the rider gets the weight advantage vs. most & 11 lbs vs the fav. O’Neil always scares me in these situations and certainly races to get back to for the 12. 3&6 were close to graduating last time but not particularly fast. 10 is FTS with fast works. 11 is FTS with good FTS pedigree. (must include for Talking Heads fans! 🙂
7,5/2/4,9/8,3,7,2/9,2,5/8 = $96 or
7,5/2/4,9/8,3,7,2,5/9,2,5/8 = $120
7,5,2/2,10/4,9/8,3,7,2/9,2,5/8,2 = $576
Get 2 out of 3 singles home:
7,5,2/2/4/8,3,7,2/9,2,5/8,2 = $144
7,5,2/2/4,9,3/8,3,7,2/9,2,5/8 = $216
7,5,2/2,10,4/4/8,3,7,2/9,2,5/8 = $216
Total Cost = $576
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