Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, November 25, 2017
Tampa Bay Downs
It’s opening day of the 2016-17 Tampa Bay Downs meet, with a great ten-race card. First post time is 12:25 PM EST, for the first day of what should be a fantastic season for racing.
Opening day means we’ve got Elaine Daniels (@edan1962) providing free picks & analysis in her second second of handicapping on Danonymous Racing.
We encourage you to give Elaine a follow on twitter; she’ll be providing analysis of the great racing at Tampa Bay all meet long.
Take it away, Elaine!
I would like to thank John Piassek and Danonymousracing.com for the opportunity to contribute my Saturday Tampa Bay Downs picks. On Opening Day I’ll be live from beautiful Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida. Last year we saw future Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming slip into town on a Wednesday to break his maiden. We saw Tampa Bay Derby winner Tapwrit go on to win the Belmont Stakes. I hope you will follow me on Twitter @edan1962 for live updates on Saturday and throughout the meet.
Here are my picks for Opening Day. Let’s have some fun!
RACE 1 – Claiming $6,250, 3&up, 6 Furlongs
1 – Shirota (6-1) – Will need to be sent from the rail and hold on. First off the claim for trainer Benny Feliciano who has won with 4 of his last 11 with first time claimers.
2 – WW Concerto (6-1) – This Concerto gelding is four of six lifetime in the money over the Tampa track. Owner/Trainer Miguel Feliciano sports a 41% win rate off a 31-60 day layoff.
7 – Malbec (9-2) – Last season’s leading jockey Daniel Centeno will be looking to start the meet off right. Colt by Yes It’s True earned a competitive 72 Beyer in his last start on dirt in October.
RACE 2 – Claiming $6,250, 3&up, 6 Furlongs
7 – Good Samurai (8-1) – Indiana shippers have done will in Tampa. Let’s see if Dale Bennett can bring this one back to form.
5 – Limehouse Gas (6-1) – Limehouse Gas is reconnecting with Jockey Delgado who brought him in last year at 49-1 at the beginning of last year’s meet.
6 – Keep Me Grounded (8-1) – With a 403 Tomlinson for the distance and a work over the track this Gulfstream invader could fill out the trifecta.
RACE 3 – MSW $22,000, 3&up, 6 Furlongs
5 – Fortythreeoeight N (6-5) – If this FuPeg colt is ready to roll in his first race since May he should have no problem with this field.
3 – Clifden (2-1) – This $235,000 Tapit colt has two works over the Tampa track. Gelded in September. Presque Isles leading jockey Pablo Morales takes the mount.
1 – Jumpin’ James (5-1) – Gerald Bennett and Antonio Gallardo team up with this Big Drama colt formerly trained by David Fawkes. Bullet work three back.
RACE 4 – Claiming $8,000, F&M 3&up, 6 ½ Furlongs
2 – Fancy Pin Stripes (5-2) – Broke her maiden in October at Keeneland. Now a double drop in class after a $16,000 claimer earlier this month at Churchill.
1 – Takin It Easy (7-2) – She’s dropping in class and moving from route to sprint. Has good early speed and will be tough to catch.
10 – Requesting (6-1) – Trainer Arboritanza has a 22% win rate when going turf to dirt and 24% when going route to sprint.
RACE 5 – Maiden Claiming $12,500, F&M 3&up, 6 Furlongs
6 – Phoenix Rising (6-1) – Monmouth shipper was competitive this summer on dirt at the MSW level. Bullet work over the track on November 12th.
8 – Buy Tway May (5-2) – This High Cotton filly’s two best races were second place finishes at 6 furlongs on dirt. Taking a class drop. Centeno takes the mount.
5 – Her Grace (9-2) – Only entrant in this maiden field who has crossed the finish line first, but, she was disqualified. Trainer Kathleen O’Connell put two works over the track.
RACE 6 – Starter Handicap $16,000, F&M 3&up, 1 Mile TURF
2 – Spence Girl (10-1) – Deep closer has been filling out the exacta at great odds in her last four races.
4 – Blake’s Magic (8-1) – Teresa Connelly is 21% with a $2.53 ROI in routes and 30% when going sprint to route. This mare with Storm Cat as her grandsire should have no problem with the distance.
9 – Believe Indeed (5-1) – Centeno gets the mount for Derek Ryan. Gets class relief on turf.
RACE 7 – Claiming $8,000N3L, 3&up, 6 ½ Furlongs
10 – Two Steps Before (9-5) – Possesses a substantial early pace advantage and under the capable hands of Gallardo this Two Step Salsa gelding could wire the field.
3 – Indio Nativo (5-1) – Finished second after being checked sharply earlier this month a Gulf Stream Park West. Has a win over the Tampa track two races back.
9 – Brookside (6-1) – In the money 3 of 5 times at today’s 6 ½ furlong distance. Centeno on board.
RACE 8 – Starter Handicap $16,000, 3&up, 1 Mile TURF
4 – Celebrity Warrior (7-2) – Monmouth shipper back in the barn of trainer Derek Ryan. Majectic Warrior baby is 6 of 7 lifetime in the money at one mile on turf.
3 – Perfect Tay (5-2) – Earned a career high 92 Beyer last out going 7 ½ Furlongs on turf at Gulfstream Park West on November 15th. Gallardo has the mount.
1 – Bird Humor (9-2) – Reid Nagle puts the blinkers on the 5 year old Distorted Humor gelding. One for one over the Tampa turf course having won at a mile last April.
RACE 9 – Maiden Claiming $16,000, 2yo Fillies, 6 Furlongs
2- Salsa Delight (5-2) – Trainer Bowersock brings her Two Step Salsa filly home to break her maiden. First time on dirt with one work over the track.
7 – Go Black Betty (6-1) – Betty gets Lasix for the first time and has a 371 Tomlinson for the distance. Two recent works over the track.
10 – Caruca (3-1) – Gerald Bennett drops this filly in class looking for her first win.
RACE 10 – Allowance Optional Claiming $100,000, F&M 3&up, 5 Furlongs TURF
6 – Pink Mama (4-1) – Won at this distance last April on the Tampa turf.
4 – Everything Lovely (9-5) – She’s had two bullet works since faltering in her last race at Laurel on September 16th. The one to beat.
3 – Quick Release (12-1) – This Trappe Shot filly has had two bullet works over the track and won last time out as the favorite.
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