Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, February 10, 2018
Tampa Bay Downs
It’s a big day of racing today at Tampa Bay Downs! They’ve got 12 races, including two of the biggest races of the meet: the Sam Davis Stakes, featuring seven Kentucky Derby prospects, and the Tampa Bay Stakes, headlined by the season debut of Breeders’ Cup Mile winner World Approval! The first race is scheduled for 12:15 PM EST.
To help you out with all the action, we’ve got Elaine Daniels (@edan1962) providing free picks & analysis in her second season of handicapping on Danonymous Racing.
We encourage you to give Elaine a follow on twitter; she’ll be providing analysis of the great racing at Tampa Bay all meet long.
Good luck to everyone playing along out there!
RACE 1 – Claiming $5,000N1Y, 4&up, 1 Mile 40 Yards
10 – Banco Dinero – First off the claim for 26% trainer Juan Arriagada. Dynaformer gelding was steadily running Beyers in the 60s at Gulfstream last fall.
8 – Marrakech – Positive jockey change to second leading jockey Centeno could be the signal that this Eskendreya gelding is ready to fire.
5 – Golden Diamond – When this Gemolister colt shipped from Puerto Rico to Florida this fall they clearly had high hopes. Drops in class and returns to a route today. Gets hot apprentice jockey Jose Bracho.
RACE 2 – AOC $75,000, 4&up, 1 Mile 40 Yards
6 – Twocubanbrothersu – Ever heard the term “horse for the course”? This 8 year old gelding is consistently putting up high Beyer scores and Centeno seems to have a knack showing this horse’s full potential when he is aboard.
1 – Mr Manning – Mr Manning won his last race under the care of veteran jockey Daniel Centeno, who is now riding the 6 Twocubanbrothersu. In his place we have Johnny Velazquez who is more than capable of handling his gelding on the deep Tampa dirt.
2 – Deland – This horse was a star in Puerto Rico, but hasn’t raced since July. The one great thing going for this horse is he has 2017 Eclipse Award Winning Jockey Jose Ortiz aboard.
RACE 3 – AOC $16,000N1X, 4&up, 7 Furlongs
9 – Sandro – Connections saw fit to enter him in an $110,000 stakes two races back at Gulfstream. Trainer Londono has a $4.85 ROI off a layoff. The PPs don’t show that this Sharp Humor gelding was quite successful at Tampa last meet.
1 – El Grande Rojo – Ten year old veteran is 8 of 9 in the money at 7 furlongs including a six length win two races back. Centeno lands here.
5 – Koko Swag – The leader trainer, Kathleen O’Connell, and the leading jockey, Antonio Gallardo, are winning at 42% when they team up.
RACE 4 – Claiming $16,000, 4&up, 1 1/16 Miles TURF
2 – High Side – Won the last time out with an excellent closing move. May be the class of the field.
3 – Thornton – Gio Ponti gelding in the capable hands of Gerald Bennett and Daniel Centeno.
10 – Crimson Hayes – Ferrer and Nations win at 33% when they team up.
RACE 5 – MSW $27,000, 3yo, 6 ½ Furlongs
7 – Mau the Great – This Bodemeister colt already has a race over the Tampa dirt, where he rallied mid pack for third, albeit 12 ¼ lengths back.
5 – Getyourmindright – Set pace his last race and still held on for 2nd, veteran rider Daniel Centeno jumps aboard, looking to break the maiden.
8 – Madison’s Luna – This $400,000 Tapit colt out of the Phil Bauer barn has been working out at Payson since December after coming from Churchill Downs. 368 Tomlinson for the distance.
6 – Mandel – A Malibu Moon firster out of the Delacour barn could come off the pace for expert rider Joel Rosario.
RACE 6 – ALW $22,500N1X, F&M 4&up, 1 1/16 Miles TURF
11 – Our Closure – Won at odds of over 88-1 last out trying turf for the first time. Earned the field’s best last out Beyer of 76.
3 – Galileo Girl – Cross entered at Fairgrounds today. Best of 168 work at Fairgrounds on January 21st. Drops in class. John Velazquez has the mount.
2 – Be Mine – California shipper by Twirling Candy has run once and won over the Tampa turf. No published works since last race on January 1st however.
6 – Cinder – This 30-1 Warrior’s Reward mare is a candidate to clunk up to fill out the bottoms of your exotics.
RACE 7 – Suncoast Stakes $150,000, 3yo fillies, 1 Mile 40 Yards
2 – Blonde Bomber – Finished third in the BC Juvenile Fillies last November. Expect improvement second off a layoff. Bullet 5 furlong work on January 25th.
8 – Daisy – John Servis filly gets the services of John Velazquez. Earned a field lifetime high 79 Beyer two races back.
5 – Belles Orb – Orb filly takes on her first dirt route for Eddie Kenneally. Won last out at Tampa. Centeno rides.
RACE 8 – MSW $27,000, 3yo fillies, 7 Furlongs
6 – Cilantro – Pletcher, Velazquez and Repole: what a combination! When Pletcher and Johnny V team up at Tampa they are winning at 60% this year. Pletcher has won with 4 of the 6 horses he has sent to Tampa this meet.
11 – Contrarian – Centeno rides for Delacour on this former McPeek trainee, dropping in for the stretch out.
2 – Dominance – Jonathan Thomas has some good trainer stats in this race, and this son of Violence looks like he fits nicely here.
RACE 9 – Endeavour G3 $175,000, F&M 4&up, 1 1/16 Miles TURF
2 – Dona Bruja (Arg) – Throw out her last race and look for Jose Ortiz to bring this fast filly home for the win.
7 – La Coronel – This Colonel John filly had an impressive 2 and 3 year old campaign, now John Oxley and Mark Casse bring her back to Tampa to start her 4 year old campaign. She may need a race after 3 months.
3 – Westit – Scratch a line through her last race and look for Manny Franco to have her up to fill out the bottom of the exotics.
RACE 10 – The Sam Davis G3 $250,000, 3yo, 1 1/16 Miles
6 – Catholic Boy – The horse to beat was flattered by Avery Island’s win in the Withers last week. Two solid works over the Tampa dirt. Has already won going farther having won the Remsen in December.
3 – Vino Rosso – Undefeated Curlin colt is Catholic Boy’s main competition. Has top connections and a win over the track.
7 – Vouch – Never count out the local connections in big races at Tampa. Delacour and Centeno are winning at 33% together. Centeno will try to wire the field.
RACE 11- The Tampa Bay G3 $175,000, 1 1/16 Miles TURF
7 – World Approval – The 2017 Turf Male Eclipse Award winner is a clear standout. Three straight Grade One wins. Runs well off a layoff. Everybody’s single.
2 – Noble Thought – Harlan’s Holiday gelding has the best late kick in the field. Two bullet works in January. Woodbine shipper finished second in a Grade Two last summer.
8 – Le Ken – Storm Cat grandson returns to a turf route. Has not been impressive since coming to the U.S., but, has excuses in his last two turf races.
RACE 12 – Claiming $6,250, 4&up, 6 Furlongs
10 – He’s Etain – Ohio shipper has finished first or second in his last five sprints. We’re getting a good price today because he has been off since November and only shows sporadic works, however, trainer Elliot Sullivan wins at a healthy 29% off layoff of 61-180 days.
3 – Big Awesome – Claimed from the barn of Gerald Bennett last time out. Earned a 71 Beyer in that race which tops the field’s last out Beyers. New trainer Diaz is winning at 60% (9 of 15) first off a claim.
2 – Mill Hill Place – Horse for the course is 5 of 6 in the money lifetime at Tampa. Cuts back from 7 furlongs. Two for two at 6 furlongs this meet.
Current Meet: Top Pick Winners: 32 of 100 (32%) Bet $200.00/Return $172.60
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