Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, December 16, 2017
Tampa Bay Downs
There’s a big day of racing this Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs! They’ve got a ten-race card, with four stakes races. First post time is 12:25 PM EST.
To help you out with all the action, we’ve got Elaine Daniels (@edan1962) providing free picks & analysis in her second season of handicapping on Danonymous Racing.
We encourage you to give Elaine a follow on twitter; she’ll be providing analysis of the great racing at Tampa Bay all meet long.
Take it away, Elaine!
RACE 1 – Maiden Claiming $16,000, 2yo, 6 Furlongs
3 – Nom de Guerre (6-1) – Wildcat Heir’s offspring do really well in Florida and Kathleen O’Connell is on fire at the current Tampa meet. Look for Ronnie Allen, Jr. to be up in time with this one.
5 – Jacks a Warrior (10-1) – This horse already has a race over the course
10 – Peas and Carrots (5-2) – This gelded son of Twirling Candy puts up a 435 Tomlinson for the distance, his last race was at Churchill at the beginning of November.
11 – Storm Protection (4-1) – Finished ahead of Jacks a Warrior 2 weeks back here in Tampa.
RACE 2 – FBTOA City of Ocala Florida Sire $125,000, 3yo Fillies, 7 Furlongs
6 – R Angel Katelyn (2-1) – Gerald Bennett’s High Cotton filly was one of the stars of last season’s meet having won three of four stakes races. Bullet work on November 29th. Will be sent to the front and will be in control of her own destiny.
4 – Surprise Wedding (7-2) – Earned the field’s highest lifetime Beyer of 88 two races back going 7 furlongs. Jockey Jesus Rios makes the trip to Tampa to ride.
7 – Stormy Embrace (3-1) – Fast enough to contend here. Two out of three in the money at today’s 7 furlong distance.
RACE 3 – FBTOA Marion County Florida Sire $125,000, 3yo, 7 Furlongs
4 – Three Rules (3-2) – Last out, in July, this 2017 Derby contender won the Grade 3 Carry Back Stakes at 7 furlongs at Gulfstream. Steady works including two bullets in November.
1 – Mo Cash (8-5) – Finished a neck behind Three Rules in the Carry Back. First of 69 bullet on December 9th. His four tries at 7 furlongs has resulted in two wins and two places.
6 – Epic Drama (8-1) – Came off a layoff last May and earned a career best 74 Beyer. Toss last two races on turf and slop. Adios Charlie colt was third to Mo Cash last February at 7 furlongs.
RACE 4 – MSW $22,000, 2yo Fillies, 1 Mile and 1/16 TURF
2 – Silver Fern (5-2) – This Bernardini filly put up a 69 Beyer speed figure at Belmont last October. She looks like she has a closing kick, so Gallardo should give us an exciting finish with this filly on top.
5 – Cholla (10-1) – The Hinsley barn has been hot lately in Tampa and this Violence filly has had some nice works over the Tampa track, so look for some improvement in this race.
3 – Scat Gal (3-1) – Christophe Clement has been working this filly out at Payson after shipping down from the NY racing scene. Distance shouldn’t be a problem, she gets Lasix for the first time.
RACE 5 – MSW $27,000, 2yo, 6 Furlongs
8 – Freedonia (10-1) – Oxbow colt has three stamina building works at Tampa. No jockey has won more 6 furlongs dirt sprints at the meet than Daniel Centeno.
2 – Regal Quality (5-2) – Have to respect Pletcher’s 23% win rate with first time starters. $200,000 Quality Road colt lures Jaramillo from Gulfstream.
10 – Vineyard Harbour (30-1) – Dueled and tired in his debut last Saturday. Cuts back and moves up in class. Fit enough to fill out the trifecta or super.
RACE 6 – The Sandpiper Stakes, $100,000, 2yo Fillies, 6 Furlongs
2 – Toni Ann’s Miracle (5-2) – This filly is on a 3 race win streak with the trainer winning 20% with 2 year olds and 23% when coming off a win.
6 – Trappe Me Later (12-1) – Robert Smith is 27% winners with his 2 year olds. Look for this Trappe Shot Filly to hit the board with good odds.
8 – Malandrina (8-1) – She has a few good works over the deep Tampa dirt, look for this filly to close into the exacta or trifecta. Darien Rodriguez is 40% with Stakes races.
RACE 7 – MSW $22,000, 2yo, 1 Mile TURF
2 – Little Deuce Coupe (10-1) – The 2 year old gelded son of Curlin should be able to get the distance with a 401 Tomlinson. Centeno teams up with Eoin Harty for what could be a good price play here in the 7th.
3 – Shiloh Lane (9-2) – Bill Mott puts blinkers on this Orb baby who debuted with a 63 Beyer speed score in his first race at Belmont.
5 – Navy Armed Guard (3-1) – Joan Scott has Castanon aboard this Midshipman colt who has a 401 Tomlinson for the distance.
RACE 8 – AOC $75,000, 2yo Fillies, 1 Mile TURF
2 – On the Hop (8-1) – Artie Schiller filly’s first time on the turf. Two 7 length victories in her four race career. Trainer Joan Scott wins 26% second off a layoff.
1 – Top Hat Tizzy (12-1) – Tiznow filly making her turf debut. Earned a competitive 57 Beyer in her first route even though she was caught 5 wide and 8 wide during the race.
6 – Madame Milan (3-1) – Trainer Arnaud Delacour has two entrants in this field and leading jockey Centeno lands here. Won last out as the favorite over the turf at Laurel.
RACE 9 – The Inaugural $100,000, 2yo, 6 Furlongs
8 – Tricks to Doo (5-2) – They paid $600,000 for this colt in the Ocala Sale last March, he put up an 81 Beyer in his first race last October at Keeneland.and has had some good works over the deep Tampa dirt.
2 – Wildcat’s Legacy (3-1) – This colt is undefeated in 2 starts with a 427 Tomlinson for the distance.
4 – His Name Is Sue (8-1) – This Kathleen O’Connell colt already has a win at this Tampa meet and the extra half furlong shouldn’t be a problem.
RACE 10 – MSW $27,000, 2yo Fillies, 6 Furlongs
1 – Clearwater (3-1) – This Paynter filly is the most likely candidate to be on the lead. Considering that front running types have excelled at dirt sprints thus far this meet he is a must use.
8 – Prospective Lady (9-2) – This filly is sired by 2012 Tampa Bay Derby winner Prospective. Bullet work on December 10th. Drops in class and cuts back from 7 furlongs to 6 furlongs.
5 – History Made (5-1) – Strings of steady works including a 5 furlong bullet at Fair Hill on November 20th. Strong Tampa connections of Delacour and Centeno.
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