Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
We’re heading back to the Spa on this Wednesday afternoon, to begin the first full week of racing at the meet. Ten races are on the schedule, including the grade 2 Honorable Miss Stakes, scheduled to go as race 9.
We’re happy to have Kenny Livengood (@Theodore3300) making his Danonymous Racing debut, providing FREE picks & analysis! Kenny’s an aspiring track announcer and a big racing fan, and you can find his Saratoga thoughts every Wednesday on the site. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Take it away, Kenny!
Race 1- Surprising Soul(#5), Moscato(#6), Show Court(#4)
Steeplechase races are not the easiest thing in the world to handicap. I’m happy if my horse is on all 4’s with a rider when they turn for home. In the steeplechase opener I will try and take the stalking ability shown by Surprising Soul to overhaul a duo of very good horses that show speed in Moscato and Show Court. Surprising Soul is on a 3 race win streak and shows no signs of stopping in the opener.
Race 2- Out of Nowhere(#9), Filly Madison(#2), Gare De Lyon(#8)
I’ll keep this short and sweet, anything can win. I prefer the likely favorite here in Out of Nowhere who is taking a hefty drop in class and has the best beyers in the race. The problem? 0-22 in her life, she doesn’t like to win. If you want to beat her at a price I would lean toward the 2 Filly Madison who tries sprinting on the turf for the first time. I’m a fan of speed turning back and in a race like this any price near 8-1 on her is worth a shot. The 8 ran only once on turf and ran an okay time, looking for an improvement here but it’s not impossible.
Off Turf- 15-14-10
Race 3- Professor Snape(#7), Bunyaan(#3), Royal Ridge(#1)
Jose-Irad exacta for me here. Professor Snape has shown the ability to route pretty well and I tend to find that early speed holds going two turns at the Spa. Bunyaan hasn’t lifted a hoof in his last two but that was a 1 turn race where he has never hit the board, his win however was in a two turn race. Irad and Rudy team up on this big class dropping gelding. Royal Ridge broke his maiden last out and sometimes those horses like to come back and win again. Nothing stands out in this race so why not try inside speed at 20-1?
Race 4- Emancipation(#2), Fayeq(#4), Hammerin Aamer(#5)
Orb vs Rachel? What? Well, their younger siblings face off here in Wednesday’s 4th race. Emancipation will have no problem stretching out as his older brother won the Kentucky Derby. Fayeq returned in an impressive way by stalking and then going to the top and opening up to a final margin of almost 3 lengths. Hammerin Aamer is good but faces really tough horses in this one. He ran a good race last time out against Thebigfundamental so don’t count this one out, just because he has no big time relatives doesn’t mean he can’t win.
Race 5- Flying Point(#11), Ruby Dusk(#8), Platinum Spark(#3)
Flying Point showed the best ability sprinting and getting back to that today should provide a much better race than her dud off the layoff last time. Ruby Dusk has been running solid figs at Arlington including an allowance race, dropping in for the tag first time today and I’m expecting a solid performance. Platinum Spark did have trouble last time out and I’m willing to give her a chance to run back to that May 3rd performance.
Off Turf- 9-7-1
Race 6-Breath of Dawn(2/2b), Super Stone(#6), Trouble for Skylar(#1)
I prefer horses with experience and Breath of Dawn is one of only a few who have them and has fired a bullet work since the debut at the Jersey Shore. Super Stone showed speed and was expected to do well being bet to the favorite, expect a much better performance. Trouble for Skylar a 225,000 dollar purchase has had a couple of swift workouts for Gargan and appears ready to go.
Race 7- Vintage Matters(#3), Super Hawk(#7), Prophet’s Cat(#5)
Off Turf 2-5-3
Race 8- Gehrig(#8), Elenzee(#3), Uncle Tbone(#7)
Gehrig was really good last out. He gets Jose Ortiz once again and is eligible to improve again 3rd off the layoff. Elenzee has shown ability to show speed or rate and has done so with consistent beyers and close finishes(never been more than 2 lengths behind on turf). Uncle Tbone rounds out the tri.
Off Turf- 8-9-3
Race 9- Finley’sluckycharm(#5), Paulassilverlining(#3), By the Moon(#2)
Finley is 5-5 at the 6 furlong distance and is the clear speed of the race, they will need to come get her. Paulassilverliningneeds to be respected here as she is coming off of back to back grade 1 wins. By the Moon is also coming off of 2 wins but I wonder if 6 furlongs is short for her. She rounds out the Honorable Miss Trifecta.
Race 10- Reconsider it(#1), She Remembered(#6), Saturdaynightfling(#9)
Reconsider It dropped in class last time and almost won at 16-1, we will take a shot with her coming back at the same level.She Remembered should be the favorite in this weak group but is the best of the bunch. Saturdaynightfling closed into a slow pace last time to get 3rd at 71-1, she won’t be that high but could be double digits. She is worth a shot in a poor group in the finale.
Off Turf- 13-1-14
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