Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Wednesday, August 2, 2017
We’re heading back to the Spa on this Wednesday afternoon, for the first day of racing in the month of August at Saratoga. Today’s feature is the 10-horse Shine Again Stakes, featuring Carina Mia.
We’re happy to have Kenny Livengood (@Theodore3300) providing FREE picks & analysis! Kenny’s an aspiring track announcer and a big racing fan, and you can find his Saratoga thoughts every Wednesday on the site. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Take it away, Kenny!
Race 1- Alcazar de Maram(#5), Reporter(#4), Invocation(#8)
The first race of August is very tough to wrap my head around. I will land on the ML favorite and just enjoy the opener of August.
Race 2- Top Brass(#1), Blaze’n Prospector(#2), Sound the Horns(#4)
A huge drop in class for Top Brass and picks up Irad for the first time. They will be tough to beat. Blaze’n Prospector is okay and is also taking a big drop in class today. Horses from Churchill have done some running at the meet so he should run good over the Spa. Sound the Horns fits one of my favorite long shot angles to play as he won last time at Presque Isle with a competitive time.
Race 3- Shamcat(#4), Astounding(#8), Cite(#7)
This is a very intriguing field of 8. Shamcat has never missed the exacta on turf and is the top choice because he will be forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t have a lot of pace. Astounding has to overcome a likely slow pace in this one and failed last time out as the favorite at this level. Cite is shortening back up to race that better suits him.
Off Turf- 9-13-1-5
Race 4- Northern Screamer(#6), Lady Paradime(#3), Bon Heir(#7)
This is Northern Screamer‘s race to lose. Lady Paradime has been close at 25000 and 32000, now dropping in for 20000 she will have a chance to pull of the upset. Bon Heir is taking a severe drop in class and was 2nd the only time she tried claimers at Keeneland.
Race 5- Herecomesyourman(#5), My Man Jax(#4), Ninety One Assault(#7)
Herecomesyourman has been improving every start and just missed by a nostril at this level last time. If you get 10-1 on My man Jax I would be surprised. He only missed by 3/4 in the Maiden Special at Keeneland as the favorite. Today he gets class relief and has put up good figs so far. Major chance. Ninety One Assault can’t seem to win but has been running good times and gets a lot of class relief today.
Off Turf- 13-14-15
Race 6- Tiz Super(#3), Parade(#4) Presumptious(#1)
Tiz Super has the perfect running style and is eligible to improve 2nd off the long layoff. Parade is coming out of the same race but will be toward the rear and with the way the track has played it could get tough. Presumptious has hit the board 6 out of 11 times and keeps grinding into the money. Maybe a winners circle pic after this one.
Race 7- Iron Power(#5), New York’s Son(#8), Birchwood Road(#4)
Iron Power has had some tough company and was even running in open allowances. Now dropping into state bred allowances I’m a big fan. New York’s Son has run two good since being switched to turf and I’m looking for an improvement.Birchwood Road is a flyer but I think that with the drop to state bred company and the ride of John V she could be dangerous as a long price.
Race 8- Church Social(#4), Violet Blue(#5), Homeland Security(#7)
I think Church Social will be very tough to beat in this one. Great rider, perfect distance and has proven that she can come from behind in slow paces. Violet Blue was way over her head last time in the Belmont Oaks, don’t overlook her maiden score. Homeland Security ran really well in her debut start of the season and you know Chad has her ready to go.
Race 9- Birdatthewire(#6), Carina Mia(#3) Going for Broke(#1)
Birdatthewire was only 2 lengths away from a G1 win last year at Saratoga. Yes she needs to things to kind of go her way but in a race that has a lot of horses going toward the lead I think she will get a good trip from Jose and be flying late. Carina Miais on class stand point the one to beat but at 3/5 I prefer others. She has been running in G1 after G1 and with a little class relief she will probably run really good however I’m not sold on her yet. Going for Broke’s best fig came in a 1 turn mile. She is one to look at moving forward from this race. No doubt Chad will have her ready to go.
Race 10- Imperfect Union(#5), New Pass(#10), Purely Lucky(#9)
Good luck in the finale! Have a great day at the Spa!
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