Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, September 3, 2017
For one last time, we’re heading to Saratoga on a Sunday afternoon, for a wet day of racing headlined by the Prioress Stakes. We’ve got Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter, for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Take it away, Steven!
I want to thank all of my followers during this Saratoga meet. We have had a decent ROI and a lot of fun. I have handicapped this card for Dirt Only. Let’s see if I can handicap the horses as good as the weather. See you next week at Big Sandy. Let’s get em
Conservative Pick 5 ticket – Will post after scratches
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – Will post after scratches
Race 1- 4-5-1
#4- Sudden Surprise – When the Saratoga dirt course takes a lot of moisture, it generally lends itself to having to be close to the lead to have a shot to win. Still this will be a key race for the rest of the card as you can use it to judge how the track will play. Must follow my twitter account for updated picks throughout the day based on how the track is playing. I have landed on this as my top pick as the lone speed in the race. His best races have come at Saratoga where he is a perfect 3 for 3 including a win at this level last time out. Pletcher is trying to win the training title and with Velazquez aboard this could be a possible single in the P5 as the 3rd choice in the ML.
#5- Big Zip – He is projected to be sitting right off my top pick and owns a win on this track when it was less than fast. He is going 2nd off a very long layoff which is not a strong move for Rudy but has some back class. Two back, he beat Celtic Chaos and Johns Island who are two of the better NY sprinters.
#1- Smokem’s Charm – Despite not running well on the Saratoga track, it is hard to throw anything out from this barn. Winner of 3 of his last 4 races and gets Joel Rosario who is riding very well of late. He is also coming off a lifetime best speed figure. The big question will be is this horse steadily improving or due for a setback after posting back to back lifetime best speed figures.
Race 2- 7-5-1
#7- Got the Gist – Good luck trying to figure out who is even going to attempt to run in this race if it is taken off the turf. Again, please follow me on twitter for updated selections based on the track and scratches. I will take a shot with this 8-1 ML jail move. If they stayed on the turf this was going to be my play of the day. When you see Gargan and Carmouche team up with Midwest Thoroughbreds it usually means they have confidence in the horse. Add the fact that this is a jail move and I am all in. Her one race on dirt was sprinting and got taken out at the break. I can forgive.
#5- Dream Passage – She is another who tried the dirt (albeit the race was meant for turf) first time out. It was a sprint race and I can also forgive. She has plenty of early speed to put her in the mix and is bred to Stormy’s Majesty so the change in surface should not be an issue.
1-Entry – Both parts of the entry are bred for the dirt/slop. At 30/1 and with two horses…….why not.
Race 3- 5-6-1
#5- Turco Brav0 – He is 7 for 8 on off-tracks and gets major class relief today. If he can still run, he has found the right field.
#6- Carve – His best race in the past two years was 2nd off the layoff which is what he is doing here. It has been awhile since he has attempting this long of a race but the fact that he is putting races back to back without a layoff is a positive sign since it has been awhile since he has attempted this feat.
#1- Conquest Bigluck E- This is a favorite that is very beatable as evident by him attempting this distance for the first time. Diodoro’s horses have been running better of late but I am not taking 2-1 on this horse unless the rail is the place to be.
Race 4- 6-1-4
#6- Jump For Joy – I could actually make a case for every single horse in this race. Despite that, I will land on one of the Pletcher horses. She ran a decent race last time out off the long layoff due to a health reason. She should be ready to roll 2nd off the layoff. I especially like the jump in class off a loss move.
#1- Say Cin Cin- All this horse does is lose and cash checks. The 7F distance might be shorter than she wants, but this is the perfect horse to wheel underneath at a big price. If the rail is good or you can close on this track, she is a must use.
#4- Fairybrook – What if I told you that the longest shot on the board will also be the horse with the fastest last time out speed figure. Yep. Might as well take a shot in a race where anyone can win.
Race 5- 2-4-8
#2- Mo Promise – This 20-1 ML shot may get overlooked on the dirt. After beating a few of these rivals up in the slop she was eased in a tough state bred stakes race despite getting bet like a good thing. She gets the perfect post to use her speed and we know Jersey Joe Bravo will be sending. If we can get 8-1 or more and the track is playing kind to speed I am all in.
#4- Woundwithhereyes – Her best races have come on the dirt surface and might be an overlay due to her poor off-track record. But if you look closer, in both races she was taken out early and never had a chance. If she drifts above her ML odds, she may be the best play.
#8- Unbridledadventure – My guess is she will go off the favorite because her two lone wins have come on off tracks. Include but will not endorse on top.
Race 6- 1a-13-12
I will trust the MTO’s in this race since most of the horses scheduled to run on turf do not have the greatest pedigrees for dirt. The best thing I can say about this race is to watch the board, watch them in the paddock and listen to Maggie. Definitely follow my twitter feed as the board will tell me who is live and who is not.
Race 7- 1-11-3-10
#1- More Mojo – The toughest thing for a first timer to overcome is the rail post. This 2YO filly will have a better shot to do it with a race under her belt. (FYI- betting horses 2nd time out who raced from the rail first time out is a big angle for me). Despite getting hit at the gate ran a nice 3rd place finish. The place horse from that race won impressively next time out and the additional footage should help if the rail is the place to be.
#11- Mockery – Similar to my top pick ran a nice third place finish and had the place horse come back to win next time out. She should appreciate the wet footing, the added distance and the post might also work in her favor.
#3- Wicked Obsession- This 350k purchase attracts Johnny V. Usually when Pletcher asks Johnny to ride his firster it is a good thing.
#10- Elenathena – This is a must include. A half to Kalabaka who did some good running on this circuit for Violette. This duo is deadly with first time starters and should not be ignored.
Race 8- 1a-7-13
#1a- Thirstforthecup – This horse is by far and away the horse to beat on the dirt. She should be even money and is a strong single in the P4s
#7- Majestic Bonnie- If you want to spread or are looking for a price horse underneath here is your filly. The connections thought enough of her to try her in a Grade 2 on dirt. That day she was bet and was taken out at the start against the best fillies in her division at the time. George Weaver is on fire and I have seen worse 15-1 shots win here.
#13- Riley’s Choice – Should be close enough to the lead to hit the board. If speed is good, she does have the inside of my top pick and can make things difficult.
Race 9- 6-8-7
#6- Luz Mimi- My boy Andrew Calvano (@stjohnshorsereport) is a part owner of this horse so we are going to root him in. She ran a very nice race finishing only a half of length behind the winner despite racing wide the entirety of the race. She will get upgraded on the off-track. Let’s get em.
#8- Kirby’s Penny – She will be on the lead but might get softened up by #5 Bow Town Cat. She is the horse to beat as evident by being a neck away from a 4 race win streak but this field is a bit tougher.
#7- Libby’s Tail – She necked out Luz Mimi for 2nd last time out despite having the better trip. She is a contender but I much rather the other two.
Race 10 – 5-4
#5- Vertical Oak – I am all in on this horse today. She goes back to 6F which is her perfect distance. She has been facing much better horses than this group including the likes of American Gal who is the best 3YO filly in the country in my opinion. She should sit the perfect trip behind the speed and if you can close even a little bit on this track she can punch her way into the Breeders Cup. The addition of Johnny V only helps her cause.
#4- Nonna Mela – She was flattered by Malibu Stacy who won yesterday (albeit on a different track) and is your likely favorite of the race. She is taking a big step up in class but Pletcher has a way of winning these 3YO stakes races.
Race 11- Will post after scratches
Please make sure to follow my twitter feed @albundypolkhigh for updated selections. I usually update my picks throughout the day based on track conditions, scratches and how the track is playing, I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck and Let’s Get Em!
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