Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, July 30, 2017
After a stakes-filled day yesterday at Saratoga, we’re back on Sunday, for ten more races. As is usual on Sundays around here, we’ve got Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter, for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Take it away, Steven!
I have handicapped this card as if it will be a fair track but be ready to adjust if the rail is good like it was on Saturday. I will be heading up to “The Spa” on Thursday and will be staying until Saturday. Feel free to drop by and say hi and talk about this great sport of horse racing. I will hope to throw you a few winners as well.
Please make sure to follow my twitter feed @albundypolkhigh for updated selections. I usually update my picks throughout the day based on track conditions, scratches and how the track is playing, I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck and Let’s Get Em!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket – 2,3 / 1a / 6 / 3,4,6 / All = $24
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – ALL / 1a, 6,8 / 6 / 3,4,5,6,7,9 / 2,5,6,7,8 = $135
Race 1– A 3-horse race to start a great Sunday card. I will not waste anyone’s time in writing about this race. Hit the all button and hope to catch the longest price. Crazy things happen in short fields.
Race 2- 1A – 8-6
#1a – Jet Majesty – Those that have been following me for the past few years know that I will be making a huge wager on this horse. The only thing better than a jail move is one with the jail move master. The only thing better than that are the 12-1 odds we are going to get on this horse. Jason Servis is hitting over 40% going first off the claim. He is probably twice that with jail moves. On paper, this horse looks like he has no shot……..but somehow he always gets them at least in the trifecta.
#8- Gotachancetodance – She is the horse to beat and will go off as the most likely favorite. She goes 3rd off the long layoff and the drop in class should suit her. I will try to beat her because it appears that her form is going in the wrong direction. Maybe it is the company she is tried to have kept but her speed numbers have steadily been declining. She is the one to beat but too risky at what will be a short price.
#6- Frozen Hannah – She is 7 for 8 ITM at this distance and a perfect 2 for 2 at this track. Shippers have done well early at this meet and this one fits the bill.
Race 3- 6-4-2
#6- Augie’s Coming – He is strictly the one to beat and a possible single in the Pick 5s. He should be alone on the lead and if the track comes up anything like yesterday he should be even money to win. Irad is not the most aggressive rider but he should by accident find himself on the lead.
#4- Dunk A Din – He takes a huge drop in class which is needed. He uses to have some tactical speed earlier in his career and Velazquez would be wise to use it.
#2- Fielding Gold – I doubt he can get the mile and an eighth but his speed figures make him competitive.
Race 4- 3-4-6
#3- Rate for Me – Manny Franco had a great setup last time out with this horse and with the amount of speed on paper, he may get the same set up. It is only a matter of time before Weaver starts heating up and this one looks well spotted.
#4- Mister Maestro – He is a major win contender if he doesn’t hook up with the #8 horse in a speed duel. Trainer Michael Tomlinson excels at turf sprints and the cutback may just be what this horse needs as evident by his blowout win sprinting on synthetic.
#6- Axtell – You have to respect a horse who is 7 for 8 at this distance. He has been a bit camera shy of late but he has encountered a few tough trips. A clean trip gets him into the winner’s circle.
Race 5- 6-8-5
#6- Dancing – She exits a live 2yo race where the winner next ran in a Stakes race where he chased on the outside of the main speed and held on for a respectable show finish. Watch the board. If she opens up 5-1 or less you know she is live.
#8- Scary Not Scared – Trainer Horacio DePaz does an unreal job with firsters, hitting at a 33% clip. Breeding says she can win first time out.
#5- We Are Family- Of all the big prices, this is the one that I am most interested in. She is a half to several winners including Dawly who earned just under 600k. As always, watch the board for help. Early money is smart money.
Pick 5 Play – 4,5 / 2,6,7,8 / 2,4,8 / 3,4,10,11 / 2,3,7 = $144
Race 6- 5-4-10
#5- Run Time – I am concerned that he may not get the pace he needs to win but this is a strong win play for me at 9/2 odds. Last time out he was by far the best horse in the race. He was in traffic but when he was clear he stormed past most of the field and was a neck shy of winning. Prior to that he lost to Hieorglyphics who just won an allowance race on Saturday. Anything close to 9/2 will have me running to the windows. He is one of three 4YOs racing against younger.
#4- Strong Side – He is one of the horses that used to be in the Mike Hushion barn who has found a new home. This 4YO should easily have the lead early with a real shot to wire the field at a big price.
#10- Desperado – The final 4YO has faced some real runners of late and might have found a softer field that would give him a legit shot to win at a price. His best races have come when he is involved early so if he is close after the first quarter watchout. If Davis is not aggressive, rip up the tickets as if “The Mush” bet him (Cmon Kryptonite).
Race 7- 6-7-8
#6- War Bond – I really like this horse at 10-1. He was by far the best horse last time out against similar. He goes first off the claim for Michael Maker which is often a good move. With a clean trip and upgrade in jockey, he can really make our multi-race tickets IRS worthy. A must include underneath in triples.
#7- Neoclassic – He is looking for his 3rd win against similar company after 2 great trips. 3 times a charm?
#8- Generous Kitten – He is by far the class of the field but you have to be concerned about going from a Grade 3 to a 32k claimer after a long layoff. It screams red flag.
Race 8- 2-8-4
#2- Nobody Move- Last time out he was able to close nicely and finish 2nd to the best sprinter in NY, Bustin It (I own the horse). All joking aside, he had not shot that day and should get a nice setup to close into this time around. If it is a fair track, he is the one to beat.
#8- Cause for Surprise – He has been in the money 4 straight races and should benefit from that projected fast pace. Being on the outside post should help Angel Arroyo avoid any trouble. He will most likely following Syndegaard and sit about 3rd on the outside. If he is good enough, everything should fall right into his lap at a generous price.
#4- Saratoga Giro – He has the back class to run with these. Does he need a race off the long layoff?
#7- Syndergaard – I may regret saying this but I do not see how he wins and is a terrible favorite. His form has gone backwards and he has never won a race stalking which he will need to do today. In addition, Todd Pletcher nominated him for the John Morrisey Stakes and thought his spot was a better spot for him. That does not spell confidence.
Race 9- 3-4-10
#3- Rappel – In another race that seems like it is loaded with speed, this closer should benefit and sit the perfect trip. I can forgive his last race which came on a soft surface which he does not appear to love. Prior to that he lost to next out winner Cloontia. His speed figures fit and he should be able to close ITM at a nice price.
#4- Kantune – He is one of the many speeds in this race and will most likely have to sit off of Black Tide. If he does, he has a shot to hit the board. If he gets into a speed battle, this race could really break down.
#10- J.S. Choice – He is giving up a ton of experience but has faced some the top horses in his division. He may wake up with the drop in class.
Race 10 – 3-2-7
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