Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, August 19, 2018
There’s a great 10-race card at Saratoga today, and we’ve got FREE picks & analysis for today’s card from Jason Perry (@jmanmetsfan1)! Jason has written for Danonymous Racing before, and he’ll be covering every Sunday of the Saratoga season.
Take it away, Jason!
In the opener I’ll side with Saida (8) because I believe she’s good enough on either surface. The race is light on front end types, and Garagan runs her back at the level she belongs. This is her best distance, and she’s good over softer footing. Look for a stalking trip with first run on the closers.
Glory to Kitten (1) may need a race off the layoff, but is admittedly the filly to beat.
Silver Magnolia (4) gets back to the distance she wants, and could add value underneath in exotics.
Silver Ghost (7) was well regarded when he debuted this spring in Florida. He underwhelmed to say the least in a pair of tries, but has worked well for his return. Jimmy Jerkens has strong figures with horses coming back off layoffs of this nature.
Knight Disruptor (6) moves to Bryan Lynch while getting back on his debut surface. Lynch has strong figures with relevant stats, and the presence of Julian will ensure more than a fair price. Maybe he wakes up here against a pretty bad group on paper.
Barn mate Candrita (3) exits a live event, and will race with first Lasix. I think both Lynch trainees are viable long shot options.
The well bred Asdaaf (1) could certainly win. He’s Takaful’s little brother, and for that reason won’t provide value. I’m not certain what took so long to get to the races either, and Kiaran McLaughlin isn’t particularly good with relevant stats. 2-1 seems unappealing.
I like a couple of price plays here. I was all over Special Thing (11) in her debut, and she didn’t run badly. If able to draw in, I fully expect her to move forward. She had been training well for strong connections in California, but was sent East likely because of the lack of sprint Juvenile races at Del Mar. You want to keep an eye on Albetrani in turf sprints.
I’m most interested in Stylishly (7) though. She’s saddled by a former Chad Brown assistant that recently went out on her own. This Speightstown filly is really well bred out of a mare that earned over $500,000. Most of her success came going longer but she did win first out at Del Mar going 5.5 furlongs. She’s reportedly worked well, and could fly under the radar.
Alternative Energy (8) ran pretty well in her debut, but I’ve had it with late starting Chad runners.
Both her and Rarities (9) were bought out of two-year old in training sales, but didn’t make it to the races until the age of three. The latter will offer much more value for the ice cold Motion. She a full sister to the locally campaigned Palace, a winner of over 1.5 million dollars. That’s probably a big reason she brought so much at auction.
I feel like there has been a bit of a speed bias of late, and NJ shipper A Place to Shine (2) could very well look to wire this group.
However, with Awestruck (1) to her inside I could see a scenario that we get a favorable set up for an off the pace runner.
It’s not as though Forever Liesl (3) and Moonlit Garden (4) are not without early speed either. Frankly, this is a race you might want to have all of the runners, because you could argue for any of them.
I’ll take a shot with Nomorerichblondes (5) a group three winner at Meydan. Arnaud Delacour has strong numbers with horses away for six months or longer, as well as runners that are on first Lasix. I expect this daughter of Hard Spun to be fit. In a race you could land anywhere, why not make it on board the strongest conditioner?
Obviously Chad Brown merits respect in this spot. I haven’t seen him training as many horses for the Ramsey’s these days, so it has me thinking that Sister Kitten (1) can probably run a bit. She’s trained well in the morning, most recently in company with Call Provision. You leave out Brown Klaravich runners at your own risk.
So obviously Newspaperofrecord (5) would be no surprise. She will be on my pick 5 tickets, but I just want to get creative with the longer of an uncoupled entry.
I’ve vowed to play close attention to Jorge Abreu so I won’t leave out Heroic Activist (2) at a big price as well. These Declaration of War progeny have run pretty well from what I’ve seen. Loooch Racing has been firing, and Mr. Paolucci paid a lot for Pagalo in Avanti (8). This daughter of Orb could be live for a hot barn.
Vitsal (3) has been battling open company until most recently when she ran a good second in a wash-off. She will likely have to battle any of a number of other front runners that could hinder her chances. She’s the most likely winner, but I want to consider others.
Not So Quiet Man (9) is really cheap, but could be used in exotics. He’s proven sprinting on grass.
Fast Getaway (2) was a logical score second out for Rice, but the Franco defection seems odd. I won’t let that bother me. Jose Lezcano has really good numbers riding for Linda. This gelding wheels back in a good spot.
I keep trying to make a case for News Anchor (10). The hot nature of the barn coupled with the expected pace scenario makes him a use in my opinion.
I love when Jose Ortiz rides for Jeremiah Englehart, and I think China Cat (9) will run big in race 7. She goes out for solid owners after looking impressive in the morning. Justin Philip progeny have been pretty quick, and I think this filly draws well.
Her biggest challenge will probably be from Mo Wheels Up (2), a daughter of Uncle Mo that has been sizzling in the morning. Those times are no joke for a two-year old. Joe Sharp is going really well right now, and he’s got monster numbers when Luis Saez takes the call.
Private Beach (3) is the one I would want at a price. Team D is a strong ownership group for Dutrow, and they shelled out a lot of money for this daughter of Malibu Moon. Arindel Farm and Rudy Rod often make a formidable tandem.
I suggest including Filly Joel (6) with Irad aboard if you intend to spread here.
Petrov (6) has more tactical speed than he’s been able to utilize running into a couple of buzz saws in his last pair. His trainer Ron Moquette has had a pretty solid meet, while winning with price horses. This is his third race in a current form cycle, and he will be guided by Jose Ortiz on Sunday. If there is moisture in the track, it only increases his chances. Look for him to sit a great stalking trip. He should certainly appreciate the class relief after chasing XY Jet and Imperial Hint.
Wonderful Light (4) has the perfect running style for this spot. Clearly he should be used. He never fails to show up. What a phenomenal broodmare his mom By the Light has been thus far. I guess I’d be a fool to leave out Servis first off the claim. Since he was already racing for a strong barn,
I don’t think Life in Shambles (2) will improve all that much.
Breaking Lucky (7) gets major class relief. If they go quick enough early he could be rolling late. I don’t trust Chad here.
If I’m wrong I’ll get beat by Favorable Outcome (1) at a short price.
I think Graham Motion has a big shot to win this race. I liked Strike (10) a little last out when he nearly stunned a field at 33-1. He looks the controlling speed once again, I just don’t know if I want him at 4-1.
So instead I’ll side with his barn mate Nakamura (5). Motion is really good when he adds blinkers, and this colt gets a massive rider switch to Irad. I like playing the longer of an uncoupled entry, especially if you are going to get behind the much stronger rider.
Admission Office (9) has a deep closing running style that may not be advantageous in a race light on speed. He too adds blinkers, but you are going to have to swallow big time chalk if you land here.
Cullum Road (1) could add value in exotics. He goes second off the layoff for Maker, and exits a common race with Strike, in which he had considerable trouble. I just feel as though if they really meant business we would get a more notable jock named.
I see a bunch of horses I don’t trust in a race nearly everyone wants to be on the lead or just off it. So let’s take a shot in the finale with Over Rider (11). Carlos Martin has surprising numbers first off the claim. He also shows a positive ROI adding blinkers, as well as going route to sprint.
I think Fortythreeoeight N (8) is the horse to beat, and should be used on all tickets.
I would normally say avoid Generalist (3) like the plague, but Klaravich wants to win this meet, and Chad has the green light to give the mediocre ones away to get a win. So he got the victory and moves to a new barn. His now current trainer Eric Guillot is bad, but not so bad he can’t win with a superior horse racing against garbage.
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