Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, August 11, 2018
It’s a stakes tripleheader at Saratoga today! There’s three stakes races, headlined by the Fourstardave Stakes. That race features a bevy of top grass milers, including Heart to Heart, Made You Look, and Voodoo Song. It’ll go as the eighth race, with a post time of 5:02 PM EDT. As usual, the opener will go at 1:00 PM EDT.
We’ve got FREE picks & analysis of all the action from Mike Mahon (@MikeMahonPA). You can catch Mike’s write-ups of the Saratoga action ever Saturday for the rest of the meet.
Take it away, Mike!
Race 1, 1 1/16 Mile (Turf), Claiming $40,000
There’s a good amount of action on the turf this afternoon and the first race on the card features 1 1/16 on the grass. The first time gelding 1 Lemonist draws the rail. I always wonder how much it costs to geld your horse – I would factor that into the claiming cost to better gauge what the owners may be thinking. His works have improved since his unenviable visit to the vet and whatever the cost may be, his owners should recoup their expense this afternoon. 5 Hyperlapse skedaddles to this side of the pond for a visit to the Spa after an unsurprising win at a place they call the Fairyhouse. I’m not sure how I’d rank that place, but Jimmy Day hits at a 20% clip with overseas shippers. 6 Prognostication should also hit the board.
Race 2, 7 Furlongs, Maiden $85,000
Race 2 features a maiden field in which only 3 of the 9 contestants have run before, and none of the 3 should be taken seriously in this one. You’re basically left with a six horse field, including the Pletcher horse 7 Baffin Bay who will most likely be the betting favorite. That leaves a five-sided coin to flip for the value play. I’m going with 8 Exchequer because Asumussen and Santana are have been running well together this meet, and Fools in Love has produced 3 winners from 3 starters including a stakes winner.
Race 3, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Adirondack Stakes (Gade 2), $200,000
This is a speed-laden sprint! Every one of these gals wants to get out front. It’s tough to tell how a two-year-old filly is going to run, especially when the average sample size is just one other race. 3 Lyrical Lady and 6 Sue’s Fortune were both dominant in their respective first races, and will be the heavy favorites today. I’m gonna go with Lyrical Lady for the same reason as my previous selection – you’ve got a hot trainer/jockey combo on a horse that looks good enough even without them.
Race 4, 1 1/16 Mile (Turf), Maiden $85,000
This is an interesting field, and even more difficult to handicap before all the starters are set. Of the runners who have raced before, 8 Teachable Moment looks like he may do well in a route. He didn’t get off to such a great start in his debut, but steadied and continued to gain ground down the stretch. I’m not sure if he can go this distance, but you can’t be sure of anyone in this field. 2 Winning Factor also hung in tight during his first out, but just sort of lingered more than battled.
Race 5, 1 Mile (Inner Turf), Allowance $87,000
8 The JY has nothing but inconsistent throughout his career, and this has worsened over his last four races as he’s been attempting to climb the ranks. I think he might be outclassed again today. I like 7 Dr. Edgar, despite his short odds, because this distance seems to suit him. His success this afternoon will depend on how well he competes at this level, but he should be close enough to the lead throughout the race to be in a pretty good position. 1 Another tests the waters outside the maiden ranks for the first time. I’m not sure how he’ll respond to switching back to Mott’s barn, but otherwise he looks like he could contend for a piece of the purse.
Race 6, 7 Furlongs, Maiden $85,000
This is a pretty bold and balanced filed, but I’m gonna put all my Starbucks money on 9 Americano. 7 Empire of War is going to be very heavily bet. It’s interesting to note the dam of 3 Cadron Flats, Diablo River, has produced 6 winners from 6 starters.
Race 7, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf), Allowance $87,000
4 Majestic Won looked incredible in her breaking her maiden last out. She’s coming back just four short weeks after that win, and should handily beat this field. 8 Sister Sophia is a safe underneath play. 9 Munchkin Money is a speed racer that’s enjoyed success at a lower level and now steps up to the biggest challenge of his mid-level career. She’s outclassed.
Race 8, 1 Mile (Inner Turf), Fourstardave Handicap (Grade 1)
I always take advantage of every opportunity to mention I have a Fourstardave bobblehead. 4 Made You Look has put up very impressive numbers in his two races since switching to Brown’s barn, and should be ready to roll today if the 50 day layoff doesn’t adversely affect his form. I feel like he’s somewhat pace dependent, and I’m not sure how hot this one’s gonna get. Assuming 6 Voodoo Song takes the early lead, he may be able to run his race and stay there until 5 Heart to Heart decides to make his move. Heart to Heart is the classiest of the lot, and this looks like his race to lose. If this one goes off the lawn, nobody can touch 1 Weekend Hideaway.
Race 9, 7 Furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming $62,500
3 Mask is my lock of the day. He outclasses this field and can beat them by breezing seven furlongs. 6 Storm Runner offers a compelling price for an underneath play.
Race 10, 1 1/16 Mile (Turf) Lure Stakes $100,000
This is a solid field and the runners should be pretty evenly-spaced throughout. 1 Projected is the one to beat, and will probably offer something close to even money. It’s a Chad Brown horse on the turf with Javier Castellano on the mount. Plus this is a presser in a field littered with speed. In order to make any dough in this one, you’ll need figure out the place and show runners. I’m going with 7 Conquest Panthera on the grounds that he’ll be closing strong, but not be able to get there in time. He doesn’t like to win but loves to compete. A safe show play. 3 Inspector Lynley packs a lot of potential, but is wildly inconsistent. He’s tempting because he’s on a pretty solid uptick and should have won the Wise Dan but it looks like he ran out of room. He’s a little stingy off of layoffs, so I’ll lay off him today…
Race 11, 1 Mile (Inner Turf) Maiden Claiming $40,000
We wrap up this afternoon’s card with a field full of also-rans. Somebody’s gotta win! Even with all the pending AEs, this is a pretty ginormous field. 7 I Like Your Style has taken a liking to the turf and may continue to improve this afternoon. I’m hopeful 1 Dancingwthdaffodls is going to press the leader and land in the money.
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