Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, July 24, 2017
We’re heading out to the Spa on this Monday afternoon for a nine race program, highlighted by a pick 6 carryover of more than $500,000. Managing editor John Piassek (@theyreoff) is here to provide FREE picks & analysis of all the action. Let’s rock!
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 6 1/2 Furlongs
6- Your Secret’s Safe: Steps down from maiden special weight company, and has run brisnet figures in the 90s in his last three races. Chad Brown hits at an insane 43% rate with horses in for a tag for the first time.
7- Shoot the Gap: Gets a jockey upgrade to Luis Saez, finished a solid second for $30,000 last time out. Makes the third start off the layoff, too.
10- Won’t Burn: Had a rough, wide trip last time out, before that earned a 90 while losing by a neck versus similar. Outside post is a mild cause for concern.
Race 2: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Off Grass)
10- Azar: Drops in for the tag for the first time, won over dirt last February at Gulfstream Park as a two-year-old, Pletcher-Velazquez teamed up for two winners yesterday.
14- Taoiseach: Ran in an off-the-grass race last time out, too. There, he was very wide and led briefly before losing by a neck. Ran figures in the upper-80s to low-90s consistently at Aqueduct over the winter.
5- Lewis Vale: Lost by a neck while trying to wire the field over a sloppy track at Hawthorne three races back. Trainer Larry Rivelli is 33% first off the claim.
Race 3: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 7 Furlongs
4- Dancing All Night: She’s improved her figure in each of her three races, running an 89 last out. Didn’t do too much at a mile, but now cuts back in distance, and has been working well.
5- Dawn the Destroyer: Ran a big figure of 95 first off the layoff over an off track, recently worked a five-furlong bullet in 1:01, has great late pace figures and should be on or near the lead.
6- Laney: Her best figure of 96 came over an off track two back, will be coming from far out of it.
Race 4: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 1/2 Furlongs
2- Champagne Ruby: Moves into open company after a string of New York-bred races. Last out, she broke a sneeze slow, but still finished a decent second. Almost always runs in the 80s, and is by far the most consistent member of the field.
7- Double Dose: Also usually runs in the 80s, and had great late pace figures. The primary downside is the switch from Santana to Arroyo in the saddle, and a large drop in class from the n/w1x level.
3- Sweetrayofsunshine: Looks to be the primary speed in the race, had a three-race winning streak snapped last out after losing ground on the backstretch. Ideally, she’ll get to the rail and stay there.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
2- Covenant: Ran a huge debut back in March, finishing second to Salty, who has gone on to be a very good three-year-old filly. She’s been working bullets getting ready for her return. Will show the way early on, at least.
4- Gifted Lady: She exits the same race that Covenant does, and ran fourth in that spot. She’s had two bullet workouts getting ready for her return, and picks up Castellano for the first time.
5- In It for the Gold: Folded quickly after being pressed on the pace last out, but in fairness, it was her first start off a long layoff. She’s been third in four of her five starts.
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 2yo, Fillies, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Off Grass)
11- Little Dipper: She was breathtakingly impressive in her debut at Monmouth Park. If she runs like that again, she’ll be Spinaway bound.
6- Princess Peggy: Broke her maiden at Belmont Park in ridiculously easy fashion over an off track. Didn’t do much at Ascot, but gets back to a surface she likes against easier competition.
9- Schianti: Another Monmouth invader, she blew away a maiden group in her debut, with a sharp figure of 83. Runner-up Phonemyposseagain returned to easily defeat a group of Jersey-bred maidens.
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/8 Miles
4- Josephine’s Moment: Winner of four in a row ships in from Parx after a smashing victory at this level, earning a big figure of 88. Looks to stalk the pace and power away.
6- Winner’s Dream: Has been working strongly at Laurel Park, and usually runs figures in the mid-80s.
2- Blue Prize: She’s a grade 1 winner in Argentina, and turned in a strong late rally to finish second in her American debut last out, earning an 87. A duplication of that late rally would be a big asset.
Race 8: Caress Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
3- Summer Reading
12- Fair Point
9- Miss Ella
5- Ruby Notion
12- Fair Point
11- Blue Bahia
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, NY-bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Off Grass)
6- Badaboom: He was fairly well-backed in his debut, but broke awkwardly and had no chance thereafter. Gets Lasix for the first time, and has been working respectably well.
14- Royal Power: Turned in a bullet four-furlong workout a few days ago at Belmont, going the distance of 47.4 seconds. $175,000 yearling purchase goes out for an underrated 2yo barn.
16- Big Gemmy: Churchill invader has a good worktab, trainer Bret Calhoun is 20% first time out, and that percentage is much better on dirt.
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