Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, October 1, 2017
The first Sunday of the Santa Anita meet features a nine-race card, headlined by the John Henry Turf Championship Stakes. The first race is scheduled for 12:30 PM PDT.
We’ve got Spencer Luginbuhl (@handi_capper) providing thoughts for all the action. Spencer’s been our Southern Californian handicapper for a while now, and we thank Spencer for his write-up today. Be sure to give him a follow on twitter!
Take it away, Spencer!
Special thanks to John for letting me continue my dream of giving my picks as a public handicapper
Use my top 2 picks in multi-race wagers bottom picks are used in filling out tris and exactas vertical wagers
#4 Tinks Twirl: Just won her last start at the allowance 50K level takes another jump in class and trainer Philip D’Amato is very good in all relevant categories. Big R.O.I with this jockey-trainer combo hitting at over six dollars.
#5 Zuzanna: Back to back wins for this daughter of Wilburn she was also claimed out of those wins. She takes the next suitable jump in class all 5 of her career victories have come at this distance she is the only horse with multiple wins at this distance.
#1 Forbidden Command: Two excellent races off the layoff at this level for this mare. She seems to be heading in the right direction on the Beyer Scale. Trainer Steven Miyadi is very good off the claim with a 2.88 R.O.I
#5 Papercoversrock: Nice drop and pop winner last time out. I usually don’t like horses that win and come right back at the same level. Trainer and jock do very well together.
#3 Thirteen Squared: She ran ok in her debut finishing third. I feel she should be the favorite, but the one is 6-5 on the morning line with a trainer who is awful with first-time starters. If you get anywhere near 9-5/2-1, this is a hammer play for me today
#5 Hurricane Tiz: of the firsters, I like this one the most due to price and the strong 5 furlong workouts two and three back in the workout tab
#10 Instant reflex: I love horses that can duel and then blow the field out of the water this one did it by over five lengths. Trainer James Cassidy, not the best when stretching them out but is very good in finding winning places after they break their maiden.
#9 Literary Critic: I think this one wanted turf all along so I would toss the debut as it seemed like a prep for the stretch out win in her latest race. She should be sitting right behind our top choice and should get first run on the closers.
#4 Flip the Coin Jan: He ran well enough at this level last time out and off the claim Trainer Doug O’Neil doesn’t drop anymore. I wouldn’t take at any lower than his morning line as I feel this was a horse that probably should have won last time out.
#8 Craft Brew: gets the top California bug right back on which is a good sign. Adding the blinkers makes me feel they want to switch up this horses style and maybe try and steal this on the front end. Trainer Vladamir Cerin not the best with two-year-olds but good when putting blinkers on
#1 Ravens Creek: Improved in both the starts at Delmar on the Beyer Scale and has a monster 5-furlong workout two back in the workout tab. They add blinkers from the rail, so I don’t see why he cant get the lead. Trainer Jeff Mullins is very good with two-year-olds and these type of layoffs.
#2 Mavericks: I love horses that workout at a distance they will be running in the afternoon and this one did it twice. Trainer Bruce Headley is excellent with first-time starters and feels this one can hit the board and create some value.
#1 Itsinthepost: I feel like whenever this gelding has run lately, I’ve picked him to win. Hes a multiple G2 graded stake winner and if he didn’t have trouble in the last race probably would have beat Hunt. Distance is the only question for this son of American Post.
#8 Hunt: Perfect trip in his last race as he went up the rail to win now gets posted out wide, and his main rival draws the rail. Cannot deny the razor-sharp form he is in and for me it would be a mistake to not include in what should be another great race.
#1 Anonymity: If they let this daughter of Tapit go easy on the front end this race is over. Fantastic debut with a Beyer of 94 and the key is she did it on a fast pace. She should get the repeat win today
#9 Dominating Woman: Here is the only other horse that I feel can pressure our top pick but she will need a perfect start to get out from her outside post. she also won on the lead in her last race but not as fast as Anonymity.
#5 Sky Preacher: Trainer John Sadler looks to drop and pop with this son of Sky Mesa. He hasn’t won in three races since the claim, but Sadler seems to have him trending upward.
#7 Rye Patch: He won at this level last time out for Baltas in his first start since the claim. Bejarano staying in the saddle adds more positivity for me.
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