Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, June 18, 2017
Santa Anita Park
We’re heading out to California on this Sunday afternoon at Santa Anita Park, as we’ve got FREE picks & analysis of the whole card from Spencer Luginbuhl (@handi_capper)!
Spencer previously handicapped Santa Anita action on shapperdacapper.com, and we’re happy to have him as a member of the Danonymous Racing team! Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Take it away, Spencer!
Special thanks to John for letting me continue my dream of giving my picks as a public handicapper
Use my top 2 picks in multi-race wagers bottom picks are used in filling out tris and exactas vertical wagers
#7 Halo Ahead: This daughter of Kittens Joy ran a swift opening Quarter in her last race and now turns back to a mile and drop to the maiden claiming level. She has worked twice since the race and seems to be in good form still. This filly will have another speed to deal with and with her draw all the way outside. She should be able to get an excellent pressing trip. Trainer David Hofmans does very well at the maiden claiming level.
#4 Christmas Carol: Her last race seemed to be very good as the winner ran faster than an earlier allowance race on the card. She didn’t finish all that far behind, and the Beyers fit well with this group but will need a price to play on the win end. Trainer Richard Baltas does with the bug boy, and that should only help the price.
#2 Oh Scatty Oh: This filly ran with our top pick two back and might get the better pocket trip with her rival being on the far outside. Don’t let trainer Peter Miller’s MSW to MC drop stat fool you he does much better on dirt than turf with this angle. She has an improving Beyer pattern, but usually, after three straight increases, there’s a bounce possibility. Another question to ask is why does Prat jump off.
#3 Lethal Legacy: Why Flavien Prat?????
Usually, when you debut a firster for a claiming tag they are not the best runner, I would pass this race from a wagering perspective, but if you are playing the pick 5, use my top 3 selections for coverage.
#5 Naughty Sophie: This daughter of Horse Greeley debuts for the leading Peter Miller barn, and this is a move that he has excelled at over the past five years with 24% strike rate. This filly also comes from a family of multiple sprint winners. Only negative for me is no Santa Anita works.
#2 Venice: One of two second time starters this filly has been working very well since her lackluster debut last month. Trainer Kristin Mulhall is off to a slow start this meet but has one winner in one start over the previous five years with dropping two-year-olds off their second start down to maiden claiming.
#6 Spirit of Shanghai: Trainer John Brocklebank is a terrific two-year trainer especially when legging up Edwin Maldonado 4-6 over the last five years. This daughter of Shanghai Bobby has fast works at 3,4 and 5 furlongs on the work tab. 4 gate works seems to be a bit much so there may have been gate problems. They also bought this filly for 70K and debut for 40K puzzling.
#1 Candy Promises: A very nice second first off the bench. He was in a three-horse speed duel all the way around the track and even started to come back on the rail in deep stretch. This gelding best races are second off a layoff as that’s where both his wins have come from if he can stay away from a big duel up front he has a big shot.
#6 Taman Guard: This lightly raced four-year-old broke his 1x allowance condition last time and now stretches out around two turns again. He was a staked placed three-year-old at this distance last year. The Beyer is a tad low, and I’m expecting him to lose ground throughout this race. With Mike Smith as the jock, this gelding has as good a chance as any.
#5 Kristo: with two wins and 7 seconds this horse screams to me a horse with no heart or grit to pass horses down the lane so for me. I will only be using underneath to finish exotics. With five shots at this at this level, the Beyers fit well but to me that will only drive his price down to low.
#4Pretty N Cool: This daughter of Scat Daddy has the back class winning a G2 2 years ago. Her start two back makes her a G3 winner this year. Class always seems to show through in graded stakes. Being three for three at the distance doesn’t hurt either
#5 Bendable: This filly gets Mike Smith who is the hottest rider out there right now. She is the most lightly raced of this bunch and just missed in a G2 in her final three-year-old start last year. She has yet to miss the board in her career.
#7 Klondike Creek: Always a positive to get the top turf jockey Flavien Prat on who is 25% on turf. Hoping he isn’t turning into a gutless horse down the lane as he’s given up leads in his last two. The colt has also run his Beyer top 3 times in a row a bounce is also a possibility.
#6 French Getaway: hoping he’s not becoming an ouchy horse with two layoffs since January. Broke his maiden long on dirt but ran very well second time on turf at a tough distance.
#3 Elegant Street: Another that comes off the bench with great works, Should get a good price due to the winless trainer at the meet so far. Can run well enough for a piece.
#7 Cupid’s Beau: When dropped to the bottom of the maiden ranks this gelding came through with a very impressive win. Roman, the bug boy, stays on and he has been on fire all meet.A little bit of a worry is the bounce factor as he just ran a new Beyer top and had 3 improving Beyers.
#1 Loud Stalker: This is mostly a class play for me as he has been facing much tougher and now drops from open claiming to conditioned claiming. Trainer Jack Carava has done well with cutbacks in the past 18%.
#4 Justonetimebaby: This son of Latent Heat has been on fire in the morning working lights out. I feel like this one might be ready to pop another high Beyer around the low 70’s where he broke his maiden. He has a win over the course and a decent third in his only start at the distance.
#7 Suit of Lights: Trainer Peter Miller does well with first-time two-year-olds and this son of Lucky Pulpit have some works that show ability.
#9 Lucky Cleric: This colt also follows the same philosophy as our top pick with a good two-year-old trainer who hits with a 3$ plus R.O.I.with firsters. Negative for me is he has only been training on the synthetic at Golden Gate
#6 Bookies Luck: Big regression second time out a negative for me hoping the pace dynamics had something to do with it as they were flying up front. Trainer Jeff Bonde places his MSW horses well hitting at 18%.
#10 Moonless Sky: She loves this turf course a perfect 3-3 over it. She won a state-bred stake last time out and fits these conditions due to her debut race for 25K will probably be a low number.
#7 Little Bit Lovely: This Mare has been in incredible form of late and if the major players don’t show up a hard hitting claiming type can always be dangerous at good odds. This is another one that loves the track and distance. Trainer Peter Miller is 31% first off the claim.
#5 Wealthy Shipman: The Beyers have been very steady for the newly claimed mare now in the Hollendorfer barn. She seems to also be in career form having not missed the exacta in the last four races.
#1 Show Me Da Lute: This three-year-old wad last seen running against Mastery and we all saw how good he was. Trainer Bob Baffert gave him some time, and we all know how good he is off long layoffs like these.
#5 Karma King: Another coming off the layoff and this one loves Santa Anita having never missed the board in 6 starts. Not the best layoff trainer and this one seemed to fire best second time out but did run a decent second in a 20K claimer off his last layoff.
#7 Honor and Courage: This son of Unbridled’s Song just broke his maiden with a very good Beyer. He had a bullet work since and should run well right back. The three seconds are a big negative for me if the price is short.
#10 She’sashocker: This four-year-old has been improving every race since being turned back in the distance. Talamo stays in the irons, and Micheal Machowsky is an excellent turf trainer
#8 True Testament: When you have a race down the hill in always trying to find horses who have had success in the past, and with this filly being 2-2 in the money at the distance and getting the hot bug jock in the saddle there is upset potential.
#3 Mag the Mighty: This first-time starter has a great foundation of fast works and the top turf trainer in his corner. The trainer-jockey combo has a positive R.O.I. Nice shot at the exotics at a price.
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