Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, June 10, 2018
Santa Anita Park
There’s 9 great races on the schedule today in Arcadia, California, including the Affirmed, for 3-year-old males. We’re happy to have Sebastian Piscuskas (@seabass912) providing his thoughts on the card. Sebastian handicapped Fridays in California for a while, and now he’s back, covering Sundays at Santa Anita. Give him a follow on twitter if you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along out there!
Race 1: #2 Incensed wheels back in 8 days after a poor break against N1X types last time out. The Miller trainee is lighting fast and catches a field devoid of pace. The Downhill course is totally favoring speed over the past month. Prat knows this. Expect him to be on the engine.
#6 Ohio has disappointed in this country. Once thought of as a good thing, the now 7yo gelding is home at this level. He ran a credible race down the hill last time and reunites with his favorite rider.
#5 Moonlight Drive was terrible in his first start off the claim and is desperate need of a rebound run. The Red Rocks horse was very speedy in his youth and should get a good trip today.
Race 2: Grab bag. This will be the race I go get a nice $5 soda and kick my feet up.
Race 3: #6 Catfish Hunter jogged in his comeback race against Starter 50k types and catches a field he outlooks by 10 lengths on paper. The improving Cal-bred doesn’t need the lead to win and catches a group of horses that must lead to win. Maldonado can play the break.
Race 4: #1 Awesome Heights was getting a perfect trip three weeks ago along the rail only to vacate his position into the lane and get floated five wide. The winner of that heat hugged the rail and got the trip Awesome Heights should have also had. Prat isn’t leading rider for not learning from his “mistakes”. 6/1 looks great on this class dropper. #6 R Cha Cha has a big-time pace edge over these, unless #12 General Mach Four draws in. Garcia takes the call and he knows the job he has to do. #3 King Eddie broke his maiden in his first try down the hill and earned a solid number doing it. The Square Eddie gelding was dueled into submission in a G3 before hitting the bench. The O’Neill trainee appears to be training forwardly for this comeback race, but his surfacing at 25k N2L is troubling.
Race 5: #5 Jest a Princess ran a very interesting race in her first start for Baffert, off a very lengthy layoff. The regally bred filly took an early lead and lost the lead in the turn before coming on again late. She’s bred to route and has worked forwardly since that effort. The mile appears to hit this one right between the eyes and she’s certainly fit. #7 Just Mine surprised me in her debut a year ago when running on after breaking slow. She subsequently dueled herself into defeat in her first try routing and has been unseen since The 210k OBS April 2016 purchase will probably need this one, but should the field come back to her she is capable. Look for her late, but more so down the road. #1 Confidentially almost certainly needs this one. Shirreffs typically lets his horses run themselves into fitness. But, like his other filly, should they tire up front this one can pick up the pieces. I have no idea what #8 Convince is. She did no running down the hill and now tries two turns on dirt. The Liason filly has a nice stride and should take to the distance but she just feels mercurial at this point. Still, I’ll back her second and won’t be surprised if she comes right in.
Race 6: #10 Trojan Time has improved with every start and has taken another step forward since being moved to Truman. Last time out the The Pamplemousse colt broke his maiden as the favorite in his first start against older. Taking on winners and 7f are a task to overcome but he gets a cozy outside post against a weak bunch. #3 Wheresthemoneyjack was just getting going when the wire came up when going 5.5f last time out in his first start off the layoff. The Union Rags colt broke his maiden at this distance last June and should be fitter today. #5 Moonman ran third in a G3 three starts ago and that is not a typo. Claimed last time by Carava, Moonman should be running late on the cutback.
Race 7: #5 Accountability was blocked late in the Crystal Water stakes last time and was unable to be ridden out. While inopportune, the Acclamation colt really was given little chance to win given the pace scenario. Becerra legs up Franco who will almost certainly have this one more forwardly placed. His effort four starts back puts him in the hunt, his race two back puts him in the Winners’ Circle. #2 Bird is The Word was given zero chance in his last and gets Desormeaux back in the saddle as a result. The multiple stakes placed colt is game and will come home if given a chance. #3 Ann Arbor Eddie surprised me in his last start when closing with a rush to finish second against a salty bunch down the hill. Another in here with Cal-bred stakes experience, Ann Arbor Eddie could get a favorable trip just off the speed drawn to the far outside. O’Neill/Gutierrez have owned this meet.
Race 8: #5 Solomini gets some much needed class relief after splitting the field in the Kentucky Derby. The Curlin colt just hasn’t progressed enough, yet, to be considered a true G1 type, but notice I said yet. If given time there’s no reason why the 4-Time G1 placed colt can’t blossom into a great animal in his own right. With that said, there’s simply no one in this race with credentials like his or who have run a race that put them within shouting distance of this one if he fires even with a “B” race.
Race 9: #8 Tandalicious was a daymaker for me when she debuted last month. Unfortunately, she was unable to get make up ground in the lane over a surface that was abnormally tiring. The flashy homebred has since come back to work a bullet in 46.3 and should love the Downhill turf course just like her mother did. #1 Ten Count Out is fast. We last saw this daughter of City Zip giving way in the lane after being tortured through a 21 flat quarter in only her second start, and her first against winners. Miyadi should have her fit and ready to roll and Gutierrez excels down the hill. The course is playing to her advantage. #9 Stradella is another in here with speed. Franco can play the break with this one but he’ll likely be out there dueling. Her running lines jump off the page. #10 Dulce Ride has run two credible races to date and makes her 2018 debut for new conditioner Baltas. Prat sees fit to ride. Look for her late.
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