Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, April 15, 2018
Santa Anita Park
There’s no stakes, but nevertheless a great 9-race card on tap today at Santa Anita. The first race will go off at 11:30 AM PDT.
We’re happy to have Sebastian Piscuskas (@seabass912) providing his thoughts on today’s card. Sebastian handicapped Fridays in California for a while, and now he’s back, covering Sundays at Santa Anita. Give him a follow on twitter if you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along out there!
Race 1: #1 Six Point Rack makes his first start off a three-month layoff that saw him scratch out of an off the turf event and be excluded from the 8th on Saturday. The Lucky Pulpit gelding ran a winning race before hitting the bench and has been the most consistent animal of the group since being moved to the turf. Blessed with a solid turn of foot and marginal tactical speed, Conner has many options on this one. 3-1 just won’t happen. #3 Bold Papa broke his maiden in strong style when overcoming a sustained wide rally in January when the rails were out a mile. The 6yo gelding has been a new animal with Baltas and catches a field he can handle in his first start against winners. Don’t discount at 6/1. #2 Alsatian ran up in down in his first start off the layoff two weeks ago. The Drysdale trainee is riding an 0-for-9 streak but should move forward in his second start of the year.
Race 2: The second race of the day is a showdown between two very highly regarded Baffert runners in #2 Mckale and #4 Zulfikhar. McKale impressed on debut and should continue to move forward with racing. I want to see this Congrats colt route. Zulfikhar floundered in the mud at Oaklawn in his 3yo bow and has been working at SA since. The Bodemiester colt should improve but I think his stablemate is the one today. Should the two Bafferts stub their toes look for #5 Graycaster to spring the upset.
Race 3: #2 Downtowner toiled five wide in the far turn before unleashing a furious rally and galloping out like a champ in his first start off the 13-month layoff. The Baffert trainee has worked consistently in the morning for this and has a turn of foot you don’t typically see with dirt horses. I think the Majestic Warrior colt is quicker than he appears on paper and won’t be in the five path the whole way around today. Expect a coming out party. #5 Momma’s Baby Boy has been terrible in two straight and desperately needs a rebound run. He has some monsters in his running lines.
Race 4: Hronis taking #4 Ladybug for 75k could be the steal of the year. The Medaglia d’Oro filly no doubt underachieved for her previous connections after fetching 360k at Kee Sept as a yearling yet has run numbers down the hill that would win this. Her first work for new connections jumps off the page, indicating to me that the light bulb might have finally gone on, and Desormeaux sees fit to take the call. The winner two back just repeated in an allowance at Keeneland on Wednesday. #3 Navajo Dreamer chased an unfathomable pace, against males, before getting carried out across the dirt and giving way. That last run came in October and Baltas gave this filly ample time to recover and fill out for a 3yo campaign. Her long, consistent, worktab tells me she’s ready to go. #2 Roses and Candy is a total runoff. The Candy Ride was up 10 lengths at the half-mile pole before tiring. Despite a monumental collapse, the McAnally trainee still held of for third, beaten less than two lengths. Rooting for the HOFer to get his second win in two days.
Race 5: #5 Uno Trouble Maker was going well in her last start before clipping heels and losing all chance. The speedy filly was going so well in fact that Miller sees fit to jump her up in class off that effort. To make matters even better for the Successful Appeal filly, she sheds eight pounds with hustling apprentice Espinoza taking the call. All systems go today. #3 Sapphire Kid won her first start off the long layoff and has since disappointed, while running way over her head in several ambitious spots. The hard-trying Becerra trainee does her best when dropping out and making one run. Has to hope this race falls apart. #6 Twisted Rosie repeated victories early in her career and has been chasing her third start while racing against tougher. The class drop is welcome for the Bonde trainee who has enough pace to be dangerous.
Race 6: #3 Vasilika has been a different filly on this coast. In her last start she dominated a starter handicap and comes back in two weeks for her second shot at this entry level allowance condition. In her last try at this level she came up a heartbreaking nose short, despite being best, and now draws towards the inside in search of her fourth win in her last five starts. #4 Achira tired late in her last start to get tagged on the wire in her first start at 9f. The Shirreffs trainee has been raging in the morning and expect her to be on the engine from the bell. She might just turn the tables today on her foe to her inside today.
Race 7: #5 Get Yourself Home debuted with a credible effort at odds-on and was then favored in her next start down the hill. In two starts before her last the Good Journey filly was very troubled and was finally able to somewhat replicate her debut form with a positive run with the addition of blinkers. Machowsky sees fit to drop out of protected company and catches a very weak field. Get Yourself Home is the most likely winner of an iffy field. #3 Champagne Honey is a 3yo taking on older after two positive runs against her own age group. While positive, the Heap trainee still has managed to go backwards in the lane and does not appear quick enough to clear these. With that said, outside of the top choice, the known commodity is not much. #2 Makenna’s Song is the only first time starter I want of the bunch. The Mullins trainee has some strong works on her tab and has showed some dash out of the gate. Prat doesn’t ride for his health.
Race 8: #11 Swiss Minister ran an unbelievable race when wide every step of the way last time out. The winner of that race came back to frank the form by running third on Saturday in a Cal Bred stake. The Lucky Pulpit trainee appears to be feeling good again and will need to have his running shoes on to catch the rail horse. #1 Hardcore Troubador’s last race was must see tv. The speedball was never closer than the four path at any time in the race and was raging all around the track while in hand. The Freeman trainee is arguably one of the fastest horses on the grounds but cannot sustain his speed well into the stretch. With that said, he only has to get 5.5f today and there’s not a single horse in this event that can go with this guy when his mind is on running. You have to catch this him to win. #5 Easter Morn simply bounced off a powerful effort last time. The 6yo gelding is slated to make just the fifth start of his career so he’s had his fair share of issues but Baltas surely has him figured out. Huge jock upgrade to Prat, who broke his maiden.
Race 9: #3 Kinematico refused to give up his position and the duel was on in his last. He was absolutely tortured in his first start off the layoff and did well to lead to the 1/8th pole. The Artie Schiller trainee has a positive inside draw and has worked well for this. While there is other pace signed on they’re all drawn to his outside and don’t appear to be as quick as this guy, especially if he wants to lead. 12/1 to close the card sounds good to me. #8 Amazon Cry has run winning races several times in his career. He got caught in a tough speed duel before hitting the bench and has worked well for his return. While able to lead I think Tiago would be better served taking a hold behind the speed and launching in the far turn. D’Amato does well with his comebackers. #1 Street to Indy ran in place in his last but earned a solid figure in a race that was highly rated. The rail draw is perfect for the plodding Street Sense gelding who could get a very comfy trip.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.