Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, January 27, 2018
The party continues at Oaklawn Park on this Saturday afternoon! They’ve got a 9 race card, headlined by the King Cotton Stakes, and we’ve got Shawn Frank (@BoxEmandBetEm) providing FREE picks & analysis of the program.
Give Shawn a follow on twitter if you can—his work will be featured on Danonymous throughout the Oaklawn meet. He’ll also be posting a weekly Derby Top Ten, featuring picks from various twitter contributors, on his site, kentuckyderbyfever.com.
Take it away, Shawn!
It’s a solid card, Saturday, at Oaklawn; card highlighted by a solid edition of the King Cotton. Let’s find some prices and enjoy the day. Shout out to Danonymousracing.com and John Piassek for thAe opportunity to share my picks with you! Follow me on Twitter @ BoxEmandBetEm Good luck and good racing!
Race 1) 1-4-2-9
#1-Backside Belle-Maiden race where 3yolds meet 4yolds, I always side with elders on top this time of the year; second career start with the top choice for solid jock and trainer combo.
#4-Hot and Ready-Should show speed second off the layoff, while staying at the same level, should improve off last start.
#2-Arus-Decent works for this older firster. Same trainer as our top pick, but Court probably had first choice, hence the top pick of the #1. I expect this one to run well at first asking.
Race 2) 8-2-6-7
#2-Johnny Whip-Strike while the iron is hot here for solid connections; this one won earlier in the meet and actually drops in class for this. He should get a tactical trip again for hot jock, Cabrera.
#2-Nobadeer-Second off the bench for this one, should be on the engine. Was up on a hot pace, off the layoff, I expect this one to hit hard in this race.
#6-Swordfish-Fresh, two for two at the distance, jock fits this horse well. Young knocks hard at this type of layoff.
Race 3) 2-4-1-3
#4-Shut the Box-This one was entered at FG on Thursday, but scratched to this spot; has been running well at Fair Grounds, drops out of stakes to and picks up Santana.
#2-Zulu-Admittedly, I don’t have a good feel for this race and claiming off Pletcher and moving a horse up is difficult, that being said, this one fits well here, was off slow in last and gets a good jock. Second off the long layoff should be dead fit for this.
#1-Shotgun Kowboy-Has plenty of class, but this one isn’t as good as he was last year. Certainly likes Oaklawn and the distance. Like the two on top better than this one.
Race 4) 1-9-3
#1 Limation-Solid MSW race here; landed on the #1, though a firster on the rail can be a tough ask. This one working well for Assmussen and get go to jock at Oaklawn. Second work back is solid. When this barn fires bullets, I usually pay attention.
#9-Exclamation Point-Working well, this one may run away and hide, though Cox admitted he thinks this one may want and be better with more ground; will certainly will take money.
#3-Mojo Man-Adds the hood, second off the layoff, for Divito. Bet heavy in last two races only to get beat. Will the addition of blinks get this one over the top?
Pick 5 – 1,5,7/1.6,10,11/6.8,9/2,3,7/10
Race 5) 1-5-7-3
#1-Whiskey Tree-Loves the distance, reunites with Eramia, who knows this horse well. Tactical, should be in the mix early. Ships in from Delta Downs and has a solid work over the Oaklawn strip on the 11th.
#5-Indy Awesome-Second off the layoff for a barn and connections due to get going; Vazquez gets the call and will sit just off the speed. Hits hard at the distance.
#7-Colony Strike-Just missed off the layoff last out. I expect this one to be much tighter off that race. Should acquit himself very well here.
Pick 4 – 1,6,10,11/6,8,9,10/2,3,7/10
Race 6) 1-11-10-6
#1-Oh Newman-Lost to the horse we picked on top in race 2 today. Will be dead fit, second off the cycle today, while Cohen sticks in the irons; Diodoro having a good start to the meet.
#11-Oriental Crown-Takes a slight cut back in distance and class, I like the fact Cabrera stays in the saddle here. Another horse that should be ready to move up again after a solid race earlier in the meet.
#10-Just Fred-Takes the class drop to straight claimers here. Has shown the ability to run some decent races at this level. I’m hoping the class drop wakes this one up.
Race 7) 6-9-8-10
#6-Rocking the Boat-There is a serious amount of speed in here. I don’t see the #9 getting an easy lead; therefore this one should sit just off the pace, off the freshening. Nice work last out, Hill sticks, trainer angle adds to intrigue.
#6-Sutton Impact-Ran a very solid race, opening weekend, but moves up in class for this one. Certainly fits if he runs back to last; has a work in tow for this.
#8-Aquamarine-Has back class, ran very well off an extended layoff, and should be much fitter for this. Likes to be up close.
Race 8) 7-2-3
#7-Recount-Exect a ton of pace for this one to rally into and roll by deep in the lane; definitely fits with these, like the post and the distance.
#2-Ivan Fallunovalot-Just missed off an extended layoff in debut at the meet. Tons of class here and I have no knocks, I just see too much pace in here and trying to beat with a much better price. Must use in multi’s.
#3-Wilbo-All three of the top three horses come out of the same race. This one had an outside post which helped aid his win. Draws right next to the above horse, I expect this one will have to go, since the #4 horse will show speed as well.
Race 9) 10-8-11-5
#10-Mitole-A strong single to end the card, late pick 4 and late pick 5. Lost to the Lukas transgress in meet debut who ran admirably yesterday. This one is going to be tough to run down.
#8-Eisentaedt-Shows good works coming into this race.
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