Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, February 10, 2018
Oaklawn Park begins their road to the Kentucky Oaks this Saturday, with a field of six three-year-old fillies going in the Martha Washington Stakes. We’ve got Shawn Frank (@BoxEmandBetEm) providing FREE picks & analysis of the entire nine-race program.
Give Shawn a follow on twitter if you can—his work will be featured on Danonymous throughout the Oaklawn meet. He’ll also be posting a weekly Derby Top Ten, featuring picks from various twitter contributors, on his site, kentuckyderbyfever.com.
Take it away, Shawn!
A solid card, Saturday, highlighted by a solid edition of the Martha Washington an Oaks trail race. It was raining towards the end of Friday’s card, so monitor track conditions. Let’s find some prices and enjoy the day. Shout out to Danonymousracing.com and John Piassek for the opportunity to share my picks with you! Follow me on Twitter @ BoxEmandBetEm Good luck and good racing!
Race 1) 2-6-10-4
#2-Misdeed-Drops in class after being over his head in last at Oaklawn, Canchari will sit off the pace and on the drop should be in the thick of it turning for home. I’ll admit I don’t have a great feel for this race, tepid top choice.
#6-Tiz Now RJ-Woke up a bit at this same class level, though having to have to go an extra 1/8 of a mile. Another that can win in a wide open event.
#4-Dynabeaver-Owns some wins at the distance, unlike many others in here. Second off the layoff, but hasn’t run well at Oaklawn.
Race 2) 2-9-10-13
#2-Ava’s Parker-Cohen sticks, second off the layoff, should be involved early. Has two works since first out at the meet. Jumps in class a bit, a good sign.
#9-Zack Ridge Road-Like the top pick, second start off the shelf, off slow in last, and takes a slight class hike, similar to the top pick. Bet hard off the layoff in last.
#10-Rickey Lee-Coming out of the same race as the top two picks, same deal, second off the layoff, up in class, a couple of maintenance works.
Race 3) 4-6-3-1-1A
#4-Get That Box-Second best off the layoff, should be dead fit for this. Likes the distance, owns a couple of wins at Oaklawn. Laviolette knows this horse well.
#6-Mizz Wizz-Likes Oaklawn and the distance, jock sticks, and is running second off the layoff as well; should show speed.
#3–Spider’s Alibi-Drops in class, retains Vazquez, and should get enough pace to run into, though has struggled at distance. Hopefully the drop and pace helps this one.
Race 4) 6-5-2-1A
#6-Honor Way-Amoss, off the barn switch, fresh, looks as though pointed to this spot. Tactical type that should be ready to fire off freshening.
#5-La Key-Caught slop in last, second off the slight layoff, gets jock upgrade, and should stalk the pace.
#2-Treble-Likes Oaklawn and has had success at the distance. Should be tightened off last; had issues at the start in last. Will be much closer to pace as a result.
Pick 5 – 6 8/5 6 7 8/6/2 3 6/1 2 4 5 7
Race 5) 6-8-9-10
#6-Pop Culture-Going to side with Assmussen off the freshening; got better in second start, and has been working consistently. Santana retains the mount, any improvement at all and this one should be on the wire.
#8-El Mas Puro-Nice work, last out, as Stevens gets the call again for the Coach. Nice improvement, last out; another move forward and will be tough to hold off.
#9-Shannon C-Second start, flashed early speed before backing out of it in debut. I like for continued improvement and can get a piece at a nice price.
Pick 4 – 5 6 7 8/6/2 3 6 7/4 5
Race 6) 7-6-8-5
#7-Abbaa-Like this spot for this one today; loves Oaklawn and was understandably short of the layoff last out. Tactical type with a great post position, while taking a class drop here, will be tough to hold off in the stretch.
#6-Lunar Light-Claimed by Villafranco and Cladwell, takes the class hike as a result, while attracting Vazquez as well. Will sit mid-pack and should be dead fit second out.
#8-Ender-Takes the class drop for Caldwell, while finishing in the money in three of five tries at the distance; is tactical enough to sit in a nice spot turning for home.
Race 7) 6-1-5-2
#6-Impasse-The Coach has had his horses running from the start and this one looks to be one of my best bets of the day. Off a long layoff, ran very well first out. Stevens takes the mount and drops out of stakes company as well. Single to me in the late pick four and five/
#1-High Fashion Diva-Fresh, drops out of stakes races and retains Vazquez, is two for three at distance and Broberg his hard off this layoff.
#5-Someday Soon-Caught some moisture in the track, last out, and should be on the front end, has some back class to draw from, but a notch below the top two choices.
Race 8) 3-2-6
#3-Red Ruby-Another one that I like a lot today; stable filly for me as Albarado is in town for this mount specifically, though he has a few other mounts on the day. Lightly races, is eligible to improve off the layoff and one that I think can make noise as we head down the Oaks trail.
#2-Sassy Siena-For the red hot Coz barn, have to pay attention that anything this barn is sending out at this stage of the meet; Stevens rode very well in last, though jumps in class off that win.
#6-Tyfosha-Speed on the outside, O’Neill has stated he likes this filly, will show speed coming out of a six furlong win. Can this filly take another step?
Race 9) 4-5-2-7
#4-Blueridge Traveler-I liked in Oaklawn debut, last out, but was short off the bench. Hill should time up the late run perfectly while getting enough speed to entice his kick.
#5-Sevier-Cox, red hot, fresh, could be on lone lead, if so, will take them a long way, can’t leave off ticket the way this barn is going at the moment.
#2-Chris and Dave-Diodoro off the barn switch.
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