Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, April 14, 2018
The last day of the meet at Oaklawn is also the biggest one: Arkansas Derby day! They’ve got a 12-race program on the schedule, with the headliner the 9-horse Arkansas Derby. There’s also a great field of 11 in the Oaklawn Handicap, plus two other great stakes race. The first race of the day will go off at 12:30 PM CDT.
We’ve got Shawn Frank (@BoxEmandBetEm) providing FREE picks & analysis. Give Shawn a follow on twitter if you can—he covered Oaklawn Park all meet long, and did a great job with it. He’ll also be posting a weekly Derby Top Ten, featuring picks from various twitter contributors, on his site, kentuckyderbyfever.com.
Take it away, Shawn!
Arkansas Derby day! Nice set of races for racing fans to enjoy at Oaklawn.Shout out to Danonymousracing.com and John Piassek for the opportunity to share my picks with you! Follow me on Twitter @ BoxEmandBetEm Good luck and good racing!
Race 1) 8-6-5-4
#8-Lionite-The Assmussen barn has two entries here and it’s tough to separate the two. Going with Ricardo and this charge; strong ownership group, fits on figs.
#6-Limation-The “other” Assmussen, could be on the lead stretching out. This one could take this group a long ways going route to sprint.
#5-Twist Off-Cox barn sends this one out, but has had no excuse in last two races at short odds.
Race 2) 7-6-3-10
#7-Luna Magic-Gets off the rail at this distance and gets a new rider. I expect this one to be off the pace, while turning for home having every chance to roll by.
#6-Switzerland-Been a money burner, in NY, but off the barn switch won at first asking at Oaklawn. One to play against, but maybe found the right group again.
#3-Pete’s Play Call-Will sit in a nice position just off the speed, won from rail last out, so the inside draw isn’t a big issue. Owns two wins at the distance and Coehen knows this one well.
Race 3) 7-4-6-5
#7-Possibilitarian-Second start horse that took a ton of money as the beaten favorite. Debut at a mile, while bet that hard, this one was obviously well meant going long, adds an extra 1/16 here.
#4-The Money Dance-Has had enough chances, but is getting better each out. Gets a jock upgrade and draws a bit better here and just missed last out.
#6-Alexandros-Another runner from the Assmussen barn, though this one is coming in off a long layoff. Those of that have been following me, during the Oaklawn meet, know I like to play against this barn with the type of layoff we see here.
Race 4) 5-6-10-2
#5-Kalaou-Caught moisture in the track in previous two starts. In addition, adds the hood. Was the beaten favorite last out, I expect this one to gun from start trying to wire this bunch.
#6-Lily Sofia-A firster, as this barn can pop them first out. Like the fact that Lanarie gets the call; should be in the mix throughout.
#10-Zippy Lou-Second start horse here, parking lot wide in last, and draws the far outside here again.
Race 5) 6-9-5-2
#6-Treble-Has drawn the rail in last two races and gets a much more favorable draw here. Likes Oaklawn and the distance; has been bet heavily, but should be ready for best here.
#9-The Craic-Has been freshened, has a win over the strip. I’m hoping Ramon sees the NASCAR pace in here and takes back a bit. Drawn well, off the layoff, and is a perfect three for three at distance.
#5-Jersey Heist-Absolutely awful trip in last; if there is moisture in the track it certainly moves this one up.
Race 6) 4-10-7
#4-Inge-Another race with tow Assmussen horses, both making their respective second starts. I’m siding with the Inge as he gets a major rider upgrade and looks to be the inside speed. With a clean break will be rolling on front end.
#10-Will’s Pioneer-Draws well as this one was drawn down inside in the three hole in his first start. Hope is here that this one sits just off the pace with this draw. This race goes through the top two horses, tough to separate.
#7-Ghost Story-Ran into a complete monster in the making in Mitole first out, if things get crazy up front will sit cozy in first flight behind the mid pack group.
Pick 4: 23810/3789/345/31112
Race 7) 2-4-7-9
#2-Bold Prophet-This is a difficult race to me. The more I looked, the more I said spread if playing the multi’s. Many can win and they take turns beating each other. Didn’t have an excuse in last, but barn has had great meet and the switch to Saez says let’s roll.
#4-Chris and Dave-Another that can win, but hasn’t won over the Oaklawn strip. He should sit just off the two to his inside if the #2 and #3 get crazy, will have first run.
#9-Chocolateicecream-Pace play here. Will get plenty of it and will sit mid pack. Should be flying late and if good enough a chance to run them down in the lane.
Race 8) 6-1-7
#6 High North-A bit contrarian here, as most will be on Title Ready here and that one will hit hard no question, but with the addition of blinks with this one, I’m thinking will help a ton here. Was this one wearing blinks in last two works? At 7/2, I’m willing to find out.
#1-Title Ready-Will save a ton of ground, obviously. Is exiting the Rebel where he caught the rail as well. Gets the rider switch to Rico, has the look of a deserving favorite.
#7-Ego Trip-Will be flying late with enough pace to run down.
Race 9) 4-3
#4-Whitmore-Class of race will get a ton of pace to chase, loves Oaklawn, single in all multi’s, I’m not telling anyone anything they don’t already know. Take the free square.
#3-Wynn Time-Ran a nice one last out, only to run into the monster above. Another step forward? Will need to.
Race 10) 7-10-5-9
#7-Hedge Fund-Run well first out at Oaklawn, there isn’t a ton of pace in here, so Flogo should have this one in a nice position out of the gate.
#10-Accelerate-If the track is sloppy, put this one up in the win column and he relishes the wet. I’m hedging it won’t be wet and an outside draw are enough for me to try and beat. Definitely a classy horse, no question and will certainly get the distance.
#5-Hawaakom-Runs very well at Oaklawn, but I’m wondering if the distance might be a bit too long for this one.
Race 11) 6-5-9-8
#6 Magnum Moon-I see a repeat of the top three here. I’ll play against this one in three weeks, no question about that. With that, should be the best in here.
#5 Solomini-I’m hoping Prat sends and let’s this one get into a nice rhythm. A grinder doesn’t like to be down inside horses and can’t get out of that rhythm. Is a gritty type that will fight.
#9 Combatant-Draws outside again, a notch below the top two, I don’t see enough pace to enable this one to close.
Race 12) 6-1-1A,2-3
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