Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, August 5, 2017
Today’s the biggest day in all of harness racing: Hambletonian day at the Meadowlands! 16 races, including a bevy of other prestigious stakes races, are apart of this program in East Rutherford, New Jersey. First post time is scheduled for 12:00 PM EDT.
We’re happy to have Keith Rosintoski (@LEGENDBETS) providing FREE picks & analysis of all the action. Keith covers the Hambletonian for us every year, and we’re happy to have him back this year. Give him a follow on twitter!
Take it away, Keith!
1 GURAL HANOVER enters this off of a wire to wire score at Plainridge last week from post 8 and figures
to get a similar trip today with the inside post. The field he faces today is perhaps a bit better than that
field was and that’s the only concern, logical but will be bet off the board as the entry. 1A OPULENT
YANKEE makes up the other half the entry and while the 6YO is a consistent check getter, he’s probably
seen his best days but he too will get away close enough to be a factor at some point in the race. 2
TUONOBLU REX is the ML favorite and considering he’s been heavily backed every start this year it
should be no surprise to see him take money in here. 3 CENTURION ATM had trouble staying flat last
out at Yonkers and overall the form isn’t what we’ve seen from him in the past, but DO NOT
underestimate the driver change from Ake to Tim Tetrick, that’s like going from me to a real driver. 6
MASTER OF LAW hasn’t raced since 2015 but this is an ambitious spot to bring him back in off of 2
qualifiers. Brett Miller is in the bike and this one figures to get some speed to chase and I want to try
and get him under somewhere perhaps at a big number but he’d have to come back better than ever at
7 to win probably.
6 IDYLLIC BEACH is probably the horse to beat for Takter with Gingras in the bike. It’ll be interesting to
see if Gingras goes forward off the gate with the small field and outside post, and my guess is he
probably puts this one on the front and finds out if she will last. I guess this field is probably a bit softer
than what she faced in the Mistletoe Shalee but it’s hard to find an excuse for that perfect trip she got,
and was just 2nd best. 4 AWASH was pretty solid in the race 2 back and if that filly shows up she’ll have a
major shot. Last time at the Meadowlands on July 15th, she faced the favorite in here and certainly held
her own. She got shuffled that day as the favorite Agent Q went first up from behind her costing her
some position on the track and probably a placing. Unfortunately she was 60-1 last time and will be
1/10th of that today. 2 BLAZIN BRITCHES hasn’t finished worse than 2nd in 8 starts this year, but today
she faces the best field she’s ever faced arguably. It is 2nd time Lasix, she does get a driver upgrade, but
how short do you want?
3 HANNELORE HANOVER is going to be an overwhelming favorite and I have nothing clever to say about
her. If she repeats her last race against the boys, or her Miss Versatility they all figure to be racing for
2nd. The others would simply need a lot of things to go there way and it’s a long card and I will simply
enjoy the show she puts on.
1 SAME O DIFFERENT DAY was intent on making the lead in the elimination and once he did he was able
to get away with a 58:3 middle half and steal it on the front end. Takter drives again today and while
he’s probably not getting that soft middle half again, given the good post I expect him to be forward
again today and with just 2 career starts he could certainly improve as well. 4 FASHION FOREVER just
floated away from the rail in the elimination and to me appeared to have one thing on the agenda,
make the final. He got no pace to chase and still came home nicely in the final quarter to finish a non- threatening 5th that will certainly help our price today. 7 MET’S HALL is the one from that elimination
race that most people will gravitate to naturally, but keep in mind she was beat at 2-5 and she figures to
take a bulk of the betting action again today. He did move 1st over into that slow middle half if you are
looking for excuses but at a short price he’s tough to rely on to heavily, even though I think he’s
probably the right favorite (assuming he goes favored). The other elimination was won by 5 YOU KNOW
YOU DO and I wasn’t very impressed with that elimination and will try to beat all of those, including this
one who is your ML favorite. I guess you could say this one tracked a slow pace and still won easily but
he simply got the trip of all trips and it was quite clear late in the mile that he was just way the horse to
beat in there. He’s impossible to recommend in here though, and if he goes favored you are supposed
to try to beat him out of the top couple spots.
2 PHAETOSIVE was bet early and often in her Meadowlands debut in the elimination and when the
favorite broke behind the gate, something most will not pay any attention to, she seemed to have the
field over a barrel. She also got a ridiculous 54:4 half mile to chase after and while her 3 wide stretch
move was impressive it’s tough to know how good she is. Now, you don’t trot 153:1 miles as a 2 year
old making your first start over the big track all under your own power unless you have some ability, but
I think she could also get bet hard off that mile and I wonder if she’s really as good as that mile made her
look. 4 MANCHEGO has done nothing wrong and figures to be a short price once again. With not much
in here to try and beat her with perhaps you lean on her, or you lean on the 2. I’m not sure the gap
between the 2 will be as much as it is on the ML, but if that is the case, I’ll lean slightly towards 2
PHAETOSIVE, but nothing clever to try to beat these 2 very likely contenders. If you are playing the
superfecta today try to get some value underneath. 5 TOP EXPECTATIONS wasn’t that close to that
wicked pace in the elimination but did make the first move into that pace, perhaps it caught up to her
quickly in the stretch and with a slightly slower 1st half mile today figures to be close enough early on to
get a piece of the ticket. 7 LILY STRIDE is the other I’ll use under as she was pretty game in the
elimination to get 2nd. She made the front early on and then while tracking in the pocket got shuffled
out and appeared to be a little green on the far turn before saving all the ground up the cones to place
behind the 4 MANCHEGO. That mile was encouraging enough for her 1st time over the track to use her
today, I just wonder if she’s still a notch below the top 2.
1 JL CRUZE upset the Spirit of Massachusetts at 60-1 and figures to be bet off of that mile as he draws
the rail tonight. He got the trip of all trips sitting 4th off the fast pace and saving ground throughout the
mile to sneak up the cones and finish it off. The good news is he’s probably fresh for the 1 1/8th miles he
gets today, but the price is likely gone. 2 RESOLVE got the Ake Svanstedt drive in the Spirit of
Massachusetts, but why wouldn’t he get that drive in here today as A.S. always finds a way to make
things interesting. It’s quite simple, this horse just isn’t trotting the same miles he once did, and at a
short price every week you are supposed to try and beat. 3 MARION MARAUDER is the morning line
favorite somehow to which I say I’m glad I don’t make the ML because I’d be wrong, often. He was fine
in the elimination, he obviously doesn’t mind this distance, but he never wins impressively and while he
figures to be right there at the end, I can’t trust at a short price, and trust even less if that ML is correct.
I’m not even sure he’s gotten better in 4 starts at 4 this year, and for that reason I’ll take a stand against.
7 CRAZY WOW left in the Spirit of Massachusetts and paid the price to the tune of 1:22 to 3 quarters. I
wonder how much that mile took out of him and to come back a week later and go an 8th of a mile
further from post 7 seems a tall task. At 1-13 over the track, she’s hard to recommend in here today. 8
FLANAGAN MEMORY clearly was prepping for this last week and he’s always been a hard trier from off
the pace. He figures to get that pace today and I think he’s very logical in here to hit the ticket, although
he doesn’t like to win much anymore. Tetrick opts for the other Canadian shipper 9 MUSICAL RHYTHM
who comes in off 2 front end romps in the Preferred at Mohawk. The outside post doesn’t help his
cause for getting forward but at this distance they may go slow enough for him to get good position if he
wants it, but he fears being parked throughout which makes him tough to recommend, but the price is
right. 12 OBRIGADO is just a consistent check getter and while he draws poorly today, he figures to be a
factor at some point. He’s not flashy but he seems to just keep trotting and the added distance should
be no problem. Throw out his Spirit from post 7 as he had no chance once he got away 7th at that track.
5 RUBBER DUCK is who I’ll be betting as he gets the rare turn back from 1 ¼ miles that he has been
running at Yonkers against open company. Joey B will probably give some wild drive or something that
costs him the race but I have to bet him if he’s north of that 20-1 and I think he will be. Distance will be
no issue and he may just be catching most of these at the right time having that quick turnaround from
what appeared to be a taxing mile. He’s not the most likely winner but in a deep field at a big number
he’s my choice in a race ripe for the superfecta.
1 HUNTSVILLE I suppose is the horse to beat but he’s so untrustworthy at a short price and I don’t think
he wants the mile and an eighth, but the others may not either. He seems all out at the end of every
mile and while he’ll probably get the mile faster than the rest of these, that final 8th he could be
screaming for the wire. 2 CHIP WALTER comes in for Erv Miller with Marcus Miller in the bike and those
last 2 miles are pretty sharp for a half mile track. He comes back to the Meadowlands where he fared
quite well as a 2YO and while this is an aggressive race to be spotted in, he’s a newcomer I’m interested
in using as we’ve seen the others try the top 2 in this division with no success already this year. 4
LAWRENCETOWN BEACH had to protect post position in the Adios Elimination but his game isn’t being
that far forward and it probably cost him a spot in the final. I have no idea if he’ll get this added
distance but I do expect him to be off the pace today, which should help him with that. 5
DOWNBYTHESEASIDE would rather go an 8th of a mile less than an 8th of a mile more, and for that
reason he’s a play against. It’ll be interesting to see what Sears does of the gate but he figures to take
money and I just can’t trust him at this distance. 6 RJP may all day, unfortunately for him, not fast all
day. He’s an underlay at anything close to that 5-1 ML and I don’t care for him either.
2 BILL’S MAN has been a consistent check getter, but continues to find himself a couple better as the
camera shy 3YO has yet to prove he can win at this level. I think with the good post he may just have
make the final on the mind, perhaps one to watch as I don’t think 2 heats will be an issue for him. 4
GIVEITGASANDGO is probably a notch below these and given that he figures to take money in here off
that perfect trip score, he’s impossible to recommend. 5 INTERNATIONAL MONI battled colic recently
and returned with an easy score all on his own. There is a lot to like about this one as he seems to be
handy enough to make his own trip. I’ve been on him all year and I love how he appears to do all of it
on his own with very little urging and I just don’t think we’ve seen his best yet. That should help him
with eliminations as he seems to only trot parts of the race and visually always looks to have more. The
thing I don’t like is that with Walner out, it’s a possibility that he is the next best horse, and the price will
reflect just that. I guess I’ll hope he doesn’t do anything eye popping in the elimination and who knows,
maybe we’ll get 3-1 in the final. I do think he’s the horse to beat and if somebody puts on a show in the
final I do think it will be him. 8 LONG TOM hasn’t done anything wrong and I thought won the Stanley
Dancer without having to do much. They confidently bring him in with a break off that race and while I
wouldn’t be itching to bet him as possibly the favorite in here he’s one to consider for the final for sure.
9 JAKE did nothing wrong last time out and I’d certainly prefer him over the 4 in here, but post 9 seems a
tall task. Perhaps an eye on the final with the hope for a better draw is in store.
1 WHAT THE HILL controlled things on the front end in his last 2 and almost was able to get 2 wins out of
it. He raced well last week and better than the margin suggests as David seemed to have this one under
wraps well before the wire. That tactical speed makes him a major player and while he won’t want to
use him up he figures to control this elimination from the rail and he’s a major player in the final. 5
DOVER DAN closed from an impossible spot last time in 27 flat and while he was never getting to the
winner he did race okay enough that maybe a piece in here is within reach. I won’t mistake him for a
Hambo winner but he’s solid enough. 6 ENTERPRISE has beat up on lesser all year long and when tasked
against International Moni last week was simply no match despite getting a soft middle half that he
won’t get today. I think he’s an underlay if he’s not double digit odds, and I recommend trying to beat
him. 9 DEVIOUS MAN is pretty talented but he draws the worst of it and I’m not convinced the big track
suits him as well as the small track. I also don’t think 2 races the same day will help this horse as he
seems to be trying hard every step of his miles. He’s a short price and I’m willing to try and throw out of
the exacta with him as well.
2 YES MICKEY is probably the one to beat, but you’d have to bet this driver at a short price, and you’d be
braver than I to do that. With 1 win from 7 starts over this track and 5 runner up finishes, it’s possible
he just likes finding one better anyway and may do just that today. 5 RUBIO has issues, and at this
point, you need to handicap as if he’s not in the race in my opinion as he figures to go off stride,
hopefully he doesn’t ruin someone else’s afternoon. 9 METEORIC draws poorly which should only help
the price and I can make the argument he’s the best horse in this race. His 1st over trip last out was
better than it looks on paper and considering he’s not on the level of that winner most would agree, it
was a good effort. I just wish he would have finished 2nd in there and not 3rd. I think he’ll be around 9-2
in here though and that may be enough to give him the slight nod, anything higher than that makes it a
little easier to use him on top. 8 DEACON TONY is probably a notch below these but with no speed in
here Gingras has to be thinking leave off the gate. The only thing that may hamper that is the break last
time, but the purse is big enough and considering he hasn’t broke before that this year, it’s safer to
assume he won’t miscue again.
4 MACH IT SO relished the added ground, wicked early pace, and ground saving trip after brushing to
the front in a slow 2nd quarter and combined those 3 things for a win in the William Haughton Memorial
2 back. I can’t imagine him getting things to all fall in his lap again today and for that reason I’ll take a
stand against him on top. 2 ALL BETS OFF wants no part of this distance and I won’t use him on any
tickets. 1 ROCK N ROLL WORLD was used hard early in the William Haughton and from the rail should
be able to get away close without having to work that hard today. He didn’t necessarily run that poorly
to be 4th and he followed that up with a nice win at Yonkers. I think he’s a major player, and at double
digit odds is worth a wager. 6 MEL MARA drew post 12 in the William Haughton and I’d imagine we’ll
see a better effort today. I’m not his biggest fan as he seems to be a need the lead type, and don’t get
me wrong he can win, but will do so at a short number. 5 CHECK SIX was also hampered by post in that
race and figures to be a little better today as well. At least he’s a big price so you don’t need to like as
much. 8 BOSTON RED ROCKS was too good in the Haughton to not get the 1st place check but he always
seems to find one better as indicated by his 0-11 record. He too is one you are supposed to fade at a
short number. 9 WAKAZASHI HANOVER only wins with a perfect trip and it’s tough to imagine him
finding that from post 9 today but if he’s close to that 8-1 maybe he’s the one you are supposed to use
in place of a few of the other short prices.
I looked for ways to try and beat 4 ARIANA G but I just can’t come up with anything clever enough. I
would try to get 5 MAGIC PRESTO out of the exacta though. 6 FINE TUNED LADY is the one I’d do that
with. 4-6 cold.
INTERNATIONAL MONI puts on a show in the Hambletonian. I hope he chooses post 9 after he wins to
help the price? (I wonder if they’d let him do that instead of 1-5). I know it’s nothing clever, he may
even be favored, and unfortunately for connections and bettors Walner coming out really put a
damper on wagering this event for me as this one figures to take the worst of it at the windows. I
won’t give out who I think will be under until after the draw.
Good Luck on the last 3 races, it’ll be a long enough day as it is with Saratoga and Delmar running.
Follow me on Twitter @legendbets for more outlandish opinions, and DM me if you wish to join the
email thread the rest of the summer at DelMar and Saratoga (there isn’t one today).
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.