Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, October 30, 2017
Laurel’s got an excellent card lined up for Monday afternoon, with nine races on the schedule. The first of them will kick off at 12:30 PM EDT.
Today, we’ve got Joseph Hansen (@jhansendc) providing his thoughts on the Monday card. Joseph’s a Marylander who tweets about Laurel on a regular basis, and we’re happy to have him joining the Danonymous crew as a second Maryland handicapper. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along!
Race 1: 1 Vouch – 5 Stubolt – 3 Zestful
Race 2: 7 Frisky Whiskey – 2 Lemon Lover – 5 Tiger Eyes
Race 3: 2 Honey Bun – 7 Nancy R – 8 Ms. Picadilly
Race 4: (Turf: 9 Eye on Berlin – 13 Lady Allegra – 10 Kadie’shorseplay – 2 Brindabella)
(Main: add 7 Let the Music Play)
Race 5: 5 Oldies But Goodies – 6 Prince Lucky – 3 Old Dude – 7 Arazi Like Move
Race 6: (Turf: 11 Put It Forward – 5 Awesome Bill – 4 Intrepid Citizen – 16 Prime Time Man)
(Main: add 12 Racetrack Romance)
Race 7: 2 Sue Me – 6 Social Stranger -4 Rare Candy – 7 Liberty Lane
Race 8: (Turf: 3 Toughest ‘Ombre – 1a The Tortoise – 7 Dattt Melody)
(Main: add 1 Papa Zulu – 2 Negrito)
Race 9: 4 Star Too – 6 Star in Dubai – 3 Little Miss Jojo
Race 1 (Maiden Special Weight $40k, 2 year olds, 1 1/16 Miles)
Delacour sends out $230 purchase Vouch (1) going long in the opener and shows a string of steady, fast works at Fair Hill (dirt track) including a bullet work from the gate on 10/17 (Note: Contributing was on the work-tab the same day, earned the bullet for 4f on the training track, and won an Allowance/OC event on Saturday here). He’s a full sibling to Calamity Kate who broke her maiden going a mile at Belmont in her 3rd start, won the G3 Delaware Oaks at today’s distance of 1 1/16 miles, and hit the board going long on the dirt in a G1 and G2. Delacour gives Karamanos a leg up on this one, and the pair has a first and 2nd in 2 tries at the meet, including a maiden winner on Saturday. Stubolt (5) ships in from Belmont for Contessa, who has hit board 9 of his last 10 when he teams with Russell. He was slow to get going in maiden voyage but ran the final 4.5 furlongs in 56.90, fastest in the field, and just missed. That try was over a sloppy track, and I would anticipate an off-going today. He’s a half to Magical Mystery, who was 2nd going long to West Coast in May at Santa Anita. Watch the board with these MSW events at Laurel; seems like the early money is the good money there.
Race 2: (Alw 7500s, Fillies and Mares, 3 year old and up, 6 Furlongs)
Top pick Frisky Whiskey (7) has about 4 lengths to make up on probable favorite Lemon Lover (2) based on the last 2 times they’ve competed, but Frisky’s last was better than it looked, as she was against a strong speed bias and was still gaining at the end. It also looks like there’s a few speed horses signed on, and hopefully she gets the pace set-up for her late kick. Difficult to dismiss Lemon Lover, as she’s in great form with a win at this level last out and on the board the last 4, including a neck loss 4 back at the level. Farrior’s had a nice meet and went out to Keeneland to claim Tiger Eyes (5). Three year old broke her maiden at the MSW level on the poly at Arlington in July and is coming off a win at the $20k level, and can stalk and pounce in here.
Race 5 (OC $50k/N1X, 2 year olds, 6 Furlongs)
Oldies but Goodies (5), a Maclean’s Music homebred for Larry Johnson, was very impressive breaking his maiden here going the 6 panels in the waiver-maiden claiming condition, even though he was pretty chilly on the board at 9/1. He pressed the pace 3 wide and powered away down the stretch, winning by about 5 in the end. That race was only .15 seconds slower than the race for older maidens, same conditions, earlier in the card. Five of his rivals in there have come back to hit the board in their next start, including a win by the runner-up on Saturday. Concern here is that Trombetta is only 1/36 over the past year with last-out maiden winners. Larry Jones will send out the probable favorite in Prince Lucky (6) who won his maiden race in hand as the 9/5 co-favorite at Delaware in August but disappointed as the heavy 2/5 favorite in the First State Dash, a restricted stakes at Delaware, where it didn’t appear he had an excuse. The runner-up there came back to run 2nd as the favorite in the Maryland Million Nursery. Old Dude (3) and Arazi Like Move (7) were separated by a nose at this level here at Laurel earlier this month, and the winner there, V.I.P. Code, came back to run 2nd at a huge price in the Awad at Belmont going a mile on the turf this weekend.
Race 7 (Alw $42k/N1X, 3 year olds and up, 1 1/16 miles)
Taking a little shot here in a competitive first-level allowance with Sue Me (2), who has a tough task making his first start against winners but there are some questions with the logicals. He showed improvement in his 2nd start which was a slight stretch-out from 6 to 7 furlongs. He was $100k purchase by Blame out of a Woodman mare, and is a half to Tiz Miz Sue who won the Azeri Stakes (G3) in back-to-back seasons and took the Ogden Phipps at Belmont, all going long on the dirt. He’s also the only one in the field with the “sprint-sprint-route” progression, so expecting further improvement here and could surprise at a price. The other horses who figure in here are seven-time winner Social Stranger (6) who is coming off of 2 gaudy Beyers at Delaware and has 3 place finishes on a wet track, 2 of which could have easily been victories; Rare Candy (4) who has back class to his west coast tries and has a good 2nd in a Parx allowance race but is only 1/16 lifetime; and Liberty Lane (7) who may be the speed, has 2 open-length victories at Laurel and one off-track win at Pimlico but has been on the shelf since August after 2 disappointing finishes.
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