Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, October 23, 2017
Laurel’s got an excellent card lined up for Monday afternoon: it’s an eleven-race bonanza that begins at 12:30 PM EDT.
Today, we’ve got Joseph Hansen (@jhansendc) providing his thoughts on the Monday card. Joseph’s a Marylander who tweets about Laurel on a regular basis, and we’re happy to have him joining the Danonymous crew as a second Maryland handicapper. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along!
Race 1: (7) Redeeming Love lost by 3 at a slightly softer level, but was 7 clear of 3rd and the winner has come back to win 2 in a row at the N2L and N3L levels. She figures to get a nice outside stalking trip in a race without much speed. (3) Dona Elba drops to lowest level and has been well-supported in each career start. She broke her maiden at the $20k level by open lengths, so figures to fit well with these $10k conditional claimers. She hit the board last time going turf to dirt and while she doesn’t have a win, trainer’s charges have hit the board in 2 of 3 with the same move.
Race 2: In a race that seems to have a ton of speed looks like (2) Top Hat Tizzy could sit a trip behind the speed despite the jump right to open claimers off her maiden win. (3) Crazy Elexis should also have a similar trip with the speed all parked to the outside, and is the only multiple winner in the field. (4) Romia flashed speed at the allowance level 2 back at Woodbine and was aggressively placed in a restricted stakes last out. Beyers give her an edge here, and X-man just broke through with his first win at the meet over the weekend.
Race 3: I’m taking a slight stand against (8) Abracadabra who had a perfect inside trip and who figures to be the shortest price of the 5 horses coming out of the same race at this level going the shorter 1 Mile distance. (2) Angel of Love comes out of that same race, was off a few steps slow and ran the 2nd-fastest 3rd quarter to stay in it while racing wide before fading to 4th. I loved (4) Saint Abbey’s race 2 back coming off the year layoff against many of the same in here. She was wide throughout with a strong middle move before fading. She had a tough start in the last and found herself way out of it early. If she runs back to the start in September, she has a big shot at a price. Of the two coming in from NJ I prefer (1) Rhythm Queen slightly, as she was further off the slow pace while wide, and gets the switch in post positions. She won at this level and distance 3 back in getting a good pace setup.
Race 4: With speed inside and out, I can envision the outside speed getting caught wide. Leaning towards horses who can sit just behind the speed, and the main danger appears to be (2) Takeashot who sat the same type of trip breaking her maiden at the $16k level in April. Homebred takes the reasonable step to the N2L level, looks to have a race flow advantage, and takes advantage of the waiver claiming condition so she’s the only one not open for the claim. I’m concerned about the post and the 1/24 lifetime record, but the numbers and class for (13) Standard Deal give her an edge in this one. Third place finisher 2 back was Canny, who runs later in the card in a N3X optional claimer.
Race 5: I’ve loved (3) Honor the Fleet since his maiden run in February, a neck loss to Motion’s Johnny Hop (who then lost to Recruiting Ready, one of the best 3 year old sprinters in the country next out). He easily won his next start over Into the Breach who, although still a maiden, has run 2nd 5 times against very strong company in NY. He then ran into solid 3 year olds No Mo Dough, No Dozing and Timeline in consecutive stakes appearances. This appears to be the softest group he’s met in quite some time (probably ever), and while both the short layoff and 4th place finish in his first start against older are both concerns, the bullet work shows he’s still in good form. (5) Dr. Blarney has dominated Mass breds at both Suffolk and Finger Lakes and posted a 91 Beyer 2 back, an open OC event at Suffolk. He looks to be the main speed, and the main threat to the top pick.
Race 6: After falling off form since the trainer switch from Proctor to Keefe, (1) Ticker Tape Parade was really on the engine in the most recent, which also happened to be at the lowest level he’s raced, before weakening to finish well back. I’m hoping that the speed is a hint at a change in form, and he also drops 17 pounds from last. (3) Nico’s Nuummite has been stuck inside for all 3 runs, but thought he ran very well in most recent where there was a big edge to the outside runners. I give him the edge of the 6 runners coming out of the common race.
Race 7: While the conditions for this one are OC$25k/SAL$25k, the field is basically a N2L. (5) Repeat Repeat broke his maiden at the $40k level 3 back and was a closing 3rd in his most recent run at the $25k N2L level where he was slow to start. Based on the first 3 races, he figures to be forwardly placed for this one and should get first run on the closers. (3) Kid Jeter is an obvious player with place finishes in last 2 at this level and finishing 4 lengths out at the $40k N2L in August at Saratoga. (6) Lead by Example gets out of NY state-bred allowance company for this one and is one of several closers that would benefit if a speed duel develops. I would suggest going pretty deep in this race if you’re playing multi’s.
Race 8: (2) Hickory Hill flattened out in latest, but that race has come back pretty live, with a next-out winner, 2 runners-up and 2 third-place finishers next out. He’s 10/12 in the money at Laurel, and passed the previous condition 2 back. He looks to be in the stalk-and-pounce position, but he’ll have to get by (5) Twocubanbrothersu who comes in from Delaware off of a restricted stakes where he prompted the pace and finished 2nd, 4 clear of 3rd. Note that Centeno sticks and he’s had a bunch of success with this one and he’s 3/3 ITM at Laurel with 2 wins. Not sure there’ll be enough speed for (7) Sea Raven who has been up the track in his last 2, both stakes tries, but gets Juarez back who won with him in June, his last victory.
Race 9: If (5) Rover Deep breaks like he’s done in the last 3, where he’s been out like a rocket at the Maiden and MSW levels in NY sprinting on the dirt, he might just run these right off their feet going long on the turf. Note that his maiden try was on the turf and while he didn’t run that great, he was 6/1 in a field that included Yoshida, who is one of the leading 3 year-old turfers in the country and featured 4 next-out winners. (7) Shortlist has been game in his last 3 turf tries, all runner-ups, and where he was wide in the last 2. Toledo stays. Saratoga shippers should be respected, and (9) Foreseeable ran a Beyer number 2 back that would be good enough in here. (3) Birdsnest Party ran huge in his turf debut last out, battling for the lead throughout and losing the photo. If he doesn’t bounce, he’s another win contender in this competitive MSW affair.
Race 10: (1) Canny was taken out of her game in the G3 Commonwealth last out where she was off slow and found herself well out of it. Despite that, she still finished only 4 lengths back and figures to get an inside trip with the draw. Either way, Cintron will have options on this versatile filly who’s finished behind some of the better turf fillies in the country, including Fault, Journey Home and I’m Betty G. Chad Brown won the Commonwealth with Rymska, and he sends out (6) Wind Tartare here, who finished only a length behind Rymska in France last year. She had a nice trip last out, but you have to respect anything that Brown sends out, especially here, where his 2 2nd place finishes were both behind his winners.
Race 11: I’m not sure you’ll get the 15/1 ML, but (2) Count on Chloe flashed speed at the MSW level sprinting on the turf here at Laurel, gets Lasix for the first time, and takes a substantial drop in class. (7) Rose Colored finished 3rd 2 back at the $25k level at this track going slightly shorter.
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