Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, October 16, 2017
Starting last Monday, Laurel started racing Mondays throughout their fall meet! Ten races are on the schedule for Monday afternoon, with a first post time of 1:10 PM EDT. Laurel’s hoping to return to the grass tomorrow, after a string of days that were washed away.\
Today, we’ve got Joseph Hansen (@jhansendc) providing his thoughts on the Monday card. Joseph’s a Marylander who tweets about Laurel on a regular basis, and we’re happy to have him joining the Danonymous crew as a second Maryland handicapper. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along!
Laurel – 10/16
Race 1: Taking a shot with (2) Blavastki taking the drop from optional claimers to straight claimers here. Throw out last 2, where she was interfered with and pulled up last out and completely missed the break 2 back where she was hustled up through the first quarter and faded. Showed speed at this level and shorter distance in the summer, there doesn’t appear to be much other speed in here, and speed has done well at the sprint distance this meet. (8) Officer Buns and (1) Aussie Prayer were separated by a nose at Parx in September, and I’ll give the slight edge to the former here, since she broke a beat slow there and figures to be up closer this time in a race without much speed. Aussie Prayer draws the rail and has been knocking at the door at this level last 2, but not sure enough speed is signed on here to help her late kick. (10) Southern Peach figures to take money but Capuano is only 1 for his last 8 with a drop from Alw to Clm, 2nd off the layoff, with 6 of those going off at 5/2 or lower.
Race 2: (3) Not Above Love improved nicely stretching out to a mile and adding blinkers. Even though she was forwardly placed and pressing the pace, she saved enough to run the fastest final quarter in the race, so further stretch-out shouldn’t pose a problem. (5) Do You Like That drops to lowest level of her career on the dirt and her Beyers on the surface make her a win candidate. (2) Dear Charlotte was too far back of a relatively slow pace in last where she lost by 5 to the top pick, but was 3 clear of 4th.
Race 3: Looks like most of the speed is outside in this one which might allow (7) Papa Pablo to let them clear and sit a nice trip in behind. Back to back 3rd’s at this level, and expect improvement 2nd off the layoff here. Same can be said for (4) Pik Em who is 3rd off the layoff and gets into the N2L for the first time after being outrun in the OC/SAL level. If someone clears from the outside it might just be (10) Just the Facts, whose last two turf tries are good enough in here.
Race 4: Tough to get past (3) Star Too in this one as she’s run 2nd in her last 3, with 2 of those Beyers giving her a big edge. (8) Majestic Pic drops in to the lowest level of her career after showing speed in a state-bred MSW event at Pen last out and note that Davis was aboard for her 2nd place finish 2 back. (6) Just B Quick, a homebred FTS out of an unraced dam, sports a pretty quick work over this track on 9/16 and a gate work in last.
Race 5: (1A)Zenbennie drops into this allowance race from the Brookemeade where she opened a big lead and faded late. That race ended about a second faster than the corresponding stakes for males on the same day. Cutback to a mile should help her speed as well. (4) Andrasta, the probable favorite, certainly fits well in here and should be used, missing twice by a nose in May at the Optional Claiming level. She was stuck on the rail last out in an off-the-turf run, and potential speed duel sets her up as well. The other speed in here is (3) Cross Roads, first off the claim for Gaudet. Think she rode a speed bias in her last, top pick has a class edge, and Gaudet is 0/4 with the Clm to Alw move, though she does have 2 2nds.
Race 6: (5) Riley’s Choice stretches out off a turf sprint at Belmont where she ran into Chad Brown’s ultra-talented Rubilinda (who won the Pebbles Stakes at Belmont on Saturday at 1 Mile) and she figures to be forwardly-placed off that sprint. She finished second to I’m Betty G by a nose in her turf debut in July at this track and distance off a 9 month layoff and that rival subsequently won a stakes at Indiana Grand and ran well to finish 3rd in the G3 Commonwealth here at Laurel. (9) Greek Mythology beat older in her debut in July and cuts back slightly off 3rd place finish to Shug’s In the Lee who ran 4th in the Commonwealth. Probably not a win candidate but (11) Sleepless intrigues at a huge price underneath for Dickinson, coming in off a 10-month layoff with a series of long workouts and first-time Lasix. If Chad’s (16) If You Say So draws in, she’s a must-use.
Race 7:Tried to take a stand against the probable top 2 choices in here but just couldn’t get past either (4) Wrightwood or (1) Papa Portmore. The former just won at this level by 8 in his second start for Claudio. A little surprising he keeps him here, considering he was running with better out west for Koriner earlier this year. The latter continues to plummet down the claiming ladder after finishing 3rd at the $11k level in June. Time off is cause for concern, but trainer has good numbers (with a small sample size) with long layoff, and his most recent was a third off of a year on the bench. (7) Rare Eagle usually leaves himself with too much to do, and thus can only be recommended underneath.
Race 8: Unlike last time, it looks like (4) Billy the Bull will be able to clear this group without much early pressure and withstand another late run from (8) Puturseatbelton who has 2 wins and a 2nd in his last 3 at these conditions at Laurel.
Race 9: (5) Jarvis Steel is coming off a huge effort where he was pressed in early going, put that rival away and just got nailed at the wire. His best efforts have come on a firm turf at this track and distance, so will be dangerous if he can sneak away early on firm turf. Though (4) Esposito began his career on dirt and synthetic, his last 2 turf efforts put him right in the mix, and he out-finished the top pick in June. (2) Call Wil should sit a nice trip and get first run on the closers. If turf is less than firm, top pick is downgraded and My Enigma is a must-use.
Race 10:Just a few months ago, (7) My Lady Munnings broke her maiden against older at the MSW at CT, then just missed in her next start at the N2X allowance level. She’s now first of the claim for Kieron who usually spots them pretty well in that spot. She doesn’t even have to run back to those efforts to win this, and if the morning line is an indication, she should be a decent price. (10) Wedgewood Blue and (8)Dixie Rose are the only horses in the field who have a win in their 3 most recent races, so just on form they have an edge over all their other rivals in this bottom-level conditional claimer.
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