Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, November 6, 2017
Laurel’s got an excellent card lined up for Monday afternoon, with ten races on the schedule. There’s also carryovers in the late pick 5 and the rainbow pick 6.
Today, we’ve got Joseph Hansen (@jhansendc) providing his thoughts on the Monday card. Joseph’s a Marylander who tweets about Laurel on a regular basis, and we’re happy to have him on the Danonymous crew as a second Maryland handicapper. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along!
Race 1: 2 No Love Lost – 10 El Vedado – 3 County Club (Main: add 7 Lil Habit of Mine)
Race 2: 10 No Texting – 3 Mid Ocean – 7 Brother Slick Nick
Race 3: 14(AE) Banner Wave – 9 Mining for Candy – 6 Conjecture – 1 Petticoatsnpistols
Race 4: 3 Frechette – 6 Make It Run – 1A Souper Striking
Race 5: 1 Pink Princess – 13 Summer Frock – 8 Hug a Tree – 2 Chesapeake Spring (Main: add 4 Tiger Eyes – 11 Lemon Lover)
Race 6: 6 Keep Your Distance – 2 Truly Hot – 1 Sweetest Yet
Race 7: 7 Big Bella Brown – 4 Stroll Smokin – 10 Five Star Bunt
Race 8: 4 Discreet Heat – 8 Clubman – 1A – Tam Tam Attack
Race 9: 3 Keep Talking – 11 My Enigma – 2 New York’s Finest (Main: add 6 Jrock)
Race 10: 3 Arrivederci (Best Bet) – 6 Reciprocity – 1A Hasta Ahora
Race 4 (MSW, $40k, 2 year old fillies, 6 Furlongs)
Frechette (3) was well-supported on debut when she just missed. She now goes first-time Lasix and Motion hits with 25% (and 67% in the money) with that move for second-time starters over the last year. Sire, who won the Risen Star on the Derby trail as a 3 year old, only has 11 foals but they’ve won 9 of 28 starts, including stakes winner Enchanted Star. Impossible to dismiss Larry Jones at the meet as he’s been in the exacta in 7 of 11 starts, and Make it Run (6) was bet like she couldn’t lose on debut at Delaware but faded late. It’s Pedroza’s only mount of the day. Souper Striking (1A) debuted on the turf at Saratoga where she ran into a pretty good field that included winner Chipolina who earned an 86 Beyer for Ward; runner-up Brattata for Brown who, though still a maiden, ran 2nd on Saturday as the favorite in the Chelsey Flower Stakes at Aqueduct; and Radiant Beauty, a next-out winner. She was a neck behind Caught Dream’n in her most recent run, and that one came back to win next out.
Race 6 (OC $16k/SAL $16k, F&M 3 year olds and up, 7 Furlongs)
Keep Your Distance (6) knows one way, and she’ll be on the engine from the get-go. Even on the cutback, I’m not sure that anyone can run with her early, as she put up a 46-second half going long on the turf. She’ll take them as far as she can. Truly Hot (2) is an improving 3 year old who posted the fastest final quarter (23.42) in her most recent, so slight stretch-out should not pose problems. She was also up against it in last, trailing on the inside when outside speed was gold. Winner from last was 3rd in the Maryland Million Distaff and 4th place finisher won a restricted allowance next out.
Race 8 (Alw $42000N1X, 3 year olds and up, 6 Furlongs)
As a two-year-old, Discreet Heat (4) displayed some talent, finishing 4th against High Roller (who’s been knocking around stakes company locally) and beating the likes of Twin Valor and Dancingwithmaude in his 2nd start. He went to the bench for year and came back in a turf sprint, which you can draw a line through, and was impressive in his most recent first-level allowance run, surviving a contested early pace to finish 2nd, 2 clear of 3rd. I’m expecting improvement in his 3rd start as a 3 year old, and Schoenthal is 14 for 34 over the last 2 years 3rd off the layoff. Clubman (8) has really turned it around in the 2nd half of his 3 year old year, winning 3 in a row before finishing 4th in the Maryland Million Classic.
Race 10 (Maiden $25k, 2 year olds, 6 Furlongs)
Arrivederci (3) goes turf to dirt and drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He’s run into Prince Lucky and Cordmaker in his previous dirt tries, and the final time in the turf race was faster than a first level allowance for older horses on the same card. I love the Indian Charlie bloodline for Reciprocity (6) and the purchase price was almost 20 times more than the stud fee. Motion is 2/12 over the past 5 years debuting at the Maiden Claiming level. It appears than Ness will scratch one from the entry, but if Hasta Ahora (1A) stays, his number 2 back makes him a threat.
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