Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, November 20, 2017
Laurel’s got an excellent card lined up for Monday afternoon, with nine races on tap. As usual, first post time is 12:30 PM EST.
Today, we’ve got Joseph Hansen (@jhansendc) providing his thoughts on the card. Joseph’s a Marylander who tweets about Laurel on a regular basis, and we’re happy to have him on the Danonymous crew as a second Maryland handicapper. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along!
Race 1: 7-2-10
Race 2: 7-5
Race 3: 10-8-11-7
Race 4: 1-3-8
Race 5: 2-7-11
Race 6: 1-8-4
Race 7: 2-11-6-4
Race 8: 6-2-8
Race 9: 6-8-13
Race 2: OC 50k/N1X, 2 year old fillies, 6 furlongs
Best Bet: Hey Niki (7) showed a lot of ability in her debut at Delaware, where she was off slow and steadied slightly going into the turn but pulled away to win easily. Part of the 6/5 entry, she was obviously well-supported and closed strongly into a slow pace, running a sub 12-second final 1/8. In the past year, Proctor is a solid 8/25 with last-out maiden winners with a positive ROI. She gets the benefit of the outside post as well. Wouldn’t be surprised to see this one on turf in the future, given that her dam Constantinople broke her maiden on the all-weather at Turfway and finished 3rd in an allowance on turf; Constantinople’s dam Silver Comic was a stakes winner on turf as well.
Race 4: Clm 5000(5-4.5), 1 Mile
I tried to find someone that could beat Deal Driven (1), the morning line favorite who figures to be odds-on, but just couldn’t pull the trigger. He seems to be the inside speed here, and there’s not much other speed signed up to give him trouble on the front end. The cut back should be right up his alley too, as he’s 4/5 in the exacta at the mile, and 5/7 in the top 2 at Laurel. If he does get headed early, he usually gives it up late, which could set up for Can’tmakethisup (3) who was competitive at the open $10k level in August and has run some Beyers that would are competitive here. Based on the connections, I wouldn’t be surprised if Augie’s Coming (8) improves here, but tough to endorse even on the drop given that he hasn’t beaten a single horse in last 2, including as the 2/5 favorite in a 4 horse field 2 back.
Race 7: OC25k/SAL25k, F&M, 3 years old and up, 1 1/16(t)
Price Play (Turf): Graham obviously thinks Sarah’s Treasure (2) can competitive on the turf, entering her in turf events recently, but 3 of those tries were taken off, and she hit the board in all 3 of those starts. In her most recent turf try, the saddle slipped while she was eagerly pressing the pace, and Perez just eased her through the lane. She broke her maiden last out by open lengths at the $40k level, and not many others in here have a classier maiden-breaker, so lightbulb angle could be in play for this 4 year old. Karamanos sticks, and she looks to have a ground-saving trip. Graham is 0 for 8 in last 2 years with last-out maiden winners, however.
Race 8: Alw 42000N1X, 3 years old and up, 1 Mile
Winning Road (6) comes off a long layoff but doesn’t meet a great allowance field and has the back-class to take this one. The four-year-old’s races in NY this winter would be enough to get it done in here. He broke his maiden by open lengths at the MSW level, then ran a clear second to Bellamy Way who earned a 95 Beyer in that one, competed in the G3 Excelsior next out, and then won an OC in June with a 96 Beyer, 3 clear of Securitiz. Then in March he was 2nd to Virtual Machine who was 2nd in the G3 Westchester next out and followed that up running in the Met Mile (Mor Spirit, Sharp Azteca) and the State Dinner (Seymourdini). Back to back solid 5f works at the Belmont training track signal his fitness. Liberty Lane (2) came back off a layoff to run at this level last month going 2 turns and was understandably short, pressing the slow pace and fading late. Jones does very well 2nd off the layoff, so expect improvement here. Sue Me (8) comes out of that same race, and I think he ran better than it looks on paper, especially for his first time against winners. The top 3 finishers were 1-2-3 in some order all around the track, and he was well out of it early. He made a wide move going into the turn, running the fastest 3rd quarter of the race, but just couldn’t get to them late. I made the case for him enjoying a longer distance in last month’s analysis, and he should be a better price than the 5/1 you got there.
Race 9: Md 10000(10-8), F&M, 3 years old and up, 6 furlongs
You probably won’t even get the 4/5 morning line on Fortunate Queen (6) who takes a huge drop for Rudy shipping in from NY. Race 2 back at the $30k level featured 2 next-out winners and 3 others who finished in the money in their next start, and runner-up in last won next out with the winner finishing 2nd in a conditional claimer. Trainer/jockey combo was 2/2 last week here. She can be a key in any of the multi’s. Underneath suggestions are Little Miss Jojo (8), Nancy R (9), Star in Dubai (12) and Annapolis Class (13).
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