Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, November 13, 2017
Laurel’s got an excellent card lined up for Monday afternoon, with nine races on tap. As usual, first post time is 12:30 PM EST.
Today, we’ve got Joseph Hansen (@jhansendc) providing his thoughts on the card. Joseph’s a Marylander who tweets about Laurel on a regular basis, and we’re happy to have him on the Danonymous crew as a second Maryland handicapper. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along!
Wish I could give multi-race suggestions, but off the turf makes it difficult to predict who’ll be in.
Race 1: 1-2-15
Race 2: 1-7-3
Race 3: 2-8-3
Race 4: 5-4-9
Race 5: 7-9-3-6
Race 6: 2-10-16
Race 7: 1-6-2-8
Race 8: 9-7-6
Race 9: 4-3-11-2
Race 1 (Claiming $7500N1Y, 1 1/16M)
Jamie Ness takes advantage of the waiver claiming condition, entering Noble Kent (1) without a tag as gelding has been out since April, when he finished an even 5th at the open $7500 level. Ness is 5/15 over the past year going first off the claim with a layoff of over 180 days, and 5/12 if you narrow it to dirt starters. Don’t mind the inside post on route races. Based on the Moss speed figures and the sprint to route angle, Banner Bill (7) could sit a nice, forwardly-placed trip from the outside post. Most recent race featured 2 next out winners including the place finisher who came back to win on Saturday. Vision of Green (3) comes out of the same race as Banner Bill, and trainer/jockey are hitting at 45% clip this year.
Race 3 (Claiming $5000(5-4.5)B, F&M, 6F)
I would recommend going pretty deep in here if you’re playing multi’s as questions abound with this group. I landed on 8-time winner Money Game (2) who comes in from Parx at the N2Y level where she was slow to go, got back into it on the inside by the turn but faded to finish last. That race has featured 3 next-out winners. She just missed at this level at Delaware 2 back. Northern Prancer (8) figures to be the favorite here off a 4th place finish in the Maryland Million Distaff Starter Handicap. She has 3 ITM finishes at this level in her last 4 starts. She’ll get the outside trip, but will need some pace to run into. Stormy Mama (3) also comes out of the Distaff Starter where she pressed the pace and faded at 96/1. She’s pretty consistently showed speed at the beaten level except for her race 3 back when she reared at the start, so that alone makes her dangerous here.
Race 5 (Claiming $10000(10-8)N2L, F&M, 6F)
She Be Fierce (7) fell on her face right at the start in last and unseated Ceballos, who gets right back on today. She was 10/1 at the $25k OC/SAL level that day and now takes a pretty big drop to today’s level for Claudio, who is red-hot. She had a troubled-trip debut in January at the $25k level and broke her maiden by open lengths in her next start at the same level after a 6 month break. Claudio thought enough about her to claim her in that one and immediately place her in restricted allowance company where she flashed speed on Aug 19 before fading. She should find this group to her liking. Notable Game (9) goes 3rd off the layoff here for Dove Houghton and should also fit considering she broke her maiden 4 back by 9 at this track and distance at the $25k-$20k level. Throw out the failed turf experiment and she fits. Janealee (3) has hit the board in her last 2 at this level and could be a play at a price underneath. Pardontori’sfrench (6) hasn’t sprinted on dirt since the beginning of the year where she just missed at this level twice in February. She was decent in the spring and summer on the turf against slightly better.
Race 7 ((R)Alw $35000N1X, 1 1/16M)
Hammerin Aamer (1) wheels right back in less than 10 days after weakening in his first start off a 2 month break at Aqueduct. He broke his maiden here at Laurel going the one-turn mile pretty handily and beat older in his next start. He’s been knocking around this N1X level in New York ever since, hitting the board in each start against some solid, talented horses like Patternrecognition, Fayeq, and Thebigfundamental. With the short run into the turn, the inside post going this distance isn’t that big of a disadvantage. Irad Ortiz comes in to ride for Rudy, which is a big endorsement. If it wasn’t for the top pick, Swayze (6) would be a standout on the Beyer figures alone. Asmussen trainee broke his maiden last out at Belmont going today’s distance, albeit against a field of 4, but the 2nd and 3rd place finishers came back to run 1-2 next out. Note that Irad had the call in his last, but comes in for the top pick here. Twin Valor (2) ran into the best on the grounds as a maiden late last year, finishing behind El Areeb and Irish War Cry among others. Dropped into the maiden claiming ranks (though not eligible for the tag) to break his maiden against older in April, and has been on the bench and gelded since. Expect this one to come back running based on the steady work tab and bullets in September. No More Talk (8) is also a local favorite, just missing last out on the turf and previously finishing behind an in-form Lewisfield, Clubman, and Just Howard.
Race 9 (Md $16000(16-12.5), 2 years old, 6F)
With the other connections in the race, Hasta Ahora (4) might get a little lost in the betting, but her race 2 back definitely gives her a big chance in here. There she finished 2nd by 2, and was 2 clear of 3rd at the $30k level at Parx, then ran wide around the turn behind the top 3 finishers who ran in the first flight all around the track. The 3rd place finisher came back to win at the $30k level by 9 against a field of 10. He’s been a trainer scratch the last 2 weeks. Smart but Foolish (3) drops in for a tag after a 6 month layoff. Runner up in last has won 3 in a row including a $100k stakes at Presque Isle. Irad sticks around to run in the nightcap for Rudy’s first time starter Jersey Bullet (2), and Delacour sends out firster Premier Event (11) whose dam won at first asking in England and later ran 2nd in the Del Mar Mile on the turf, which is where this one’s future might be. Not a sign of confidence that they’re immediately entered for the $16k tag, but there’s much else in here.
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