Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, December 4, 2017
Laurel’s got an excellent card lined up for Monday afternoon, with nine races on tap. As usual, first post time is 12:30 PM EST.
Today, we’ve got Joseph Hansen (@jhansendc) providing his thoughts on the card. Joseph’s a Marylander who tweets about Laurel on a regular basis, and we’re happy to have him on the Danonymous crew as a second Maryland handicapper. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along!
Race 1: 5-6-3
Race 2: 7-5-3
Race 3: 2x-7-6
Race 4: 5-1-7
Race 5: 7-6-1-3
Race 6: 6-1
Race 7: 4-3-6-5
Race 8: 6-4-3
Race 9: 8-7-1
Race 4 (Clm 7500 (7.5-6.5), 3 years old and up, 5.5 furlongs)
Dukin With Dale (5) is a little light on the Beyer scale, but seems to have the pace advantage in this one. Battled on the lead throughout in his last race through very fast fractions for this level, he was able to shake his rival off but was nosed out at the wire, finishing 6 clear of 3rd. It looks like they’ll have to pass him to win. Sky Chapparral (1) is obviously in great form, finishing in the exacta in 5 of his last 6. His class can certainly win out here, but will have to work out a trip from the inside post and might not have much pace to run into. I’ve had Political Farce (7) on my watch list based on his trip last out where he was completely unprepared at the break and rushed up in the first quarter where he had to steady off heels. He then had more traffic problems into the stretch where he had to steady and had no chance from there as the leaders kicked away. However, he’s tough to recommend up top as he’s only 1/17 on fast dirt in his life, though he does have 7 place finishes.
Race 6 ((R)Alw 35000N1X, 3 years old and up, 1 1/8M)
Six horses in this restricted allowance race, 3 of them are proven on turf but not on dirt, and 3 others are coming out of the same race. I’ll take Jump Jive and Wail (6), who ran 2nd in the common race behind Hammerin Aamer and was 3 clear of Broad Reach (1), who in turn was 3 clear of Legend’s Hope (2). The top pick also has had some success at this restricted level, hitting the board in 3 of the last 4, and doesn’t run into anyone in the same class as Aamer.
$.50 Late Pick 4: 6/3,4,5,6,10/3,4,6,7/8
Race 7 (Md 40000 (40-32), 2 year old fillies, 5.5 furlongs)
Velocita Brillante’s (4) debut was a terrific learning experience for her. She stumbled a few steps out of the gate and then had to run in between horses down the backstretch. When Toledo moved her outside into the open, she started to make a run at the leaders but faded late. She did fight on nicely to finish 5th, well clear of the rest of the field. Two of the rivals that outplaced her there show up again today, and both had much cleaner trips that day. She’s put in a solid 5f work for this one. On the breeding side she does have some win-early pedigree, as her sire won the Del Mar Futurity and the Hollywood Juvenile Championship at 2, and she’s a half to Sunrise Sunset who won on debut and finished 3rd in the Maryland Juvenile Futurity in his 2nd start. First-time starter Cherryandthehawk (3) is the son of recently-deceased El Padrino who was having terrific success with his first crop of 13 foals who have 37 starts, winning at a 32% clip and 52% in the money. Schoenthal is having a great meet, but is only 1/10 over past year with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level and 1/17 in last 2 years. Dam Time to Dream won her 2nd start, won a restricted stakes at Laurel and was open stakes placed at Laurel and Delaware. She’s also a half to Five Star Dream, stakes winner at Delaware.
Race 8 (OC 32k/N3X, 3 years old and up, 1 1/16M)
Monongahela (6) has impressively moved through his conditions at PEN and looks like he might still be improving while we generally know his opponents’ ceilings. He broke his maiden in April against PA state breds and was successful in his first try against winners, which is usually a difficult move. He’s since won at the open allowance level against older, he’s 7/7 in the exacta at the distance, and figures to be a decent price. Whitney comes in to ride as well who’s 1/1 at the meet and is 25% with Rubley over the last 2 years.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.