Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, December 4, 2017
Laurel’s got an excellent card lined up for Monday afternoon, with nine races on tap. As usual, first post time is 12:30 PM EST.
Today, we’ve got Joseph Hansen (@jhansendc) providing his thoughts on the card. Joseph’s a Marylander who tweets about Laurel on a regular basis, and we’re happy to have him on the Danonymous crew as a second Maryland handicapper. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along!
Race 1: 2-5-6
Race 2: 5-4-2
Race 3: 5-3-8
Race 4: 6-7-4
Race 5: 8-4-7
Race 6: 8-4-10-5
Race 7: 1-5-7
Race 8: 3-6-4
Race 9: 4-5
Race 1 (Md 25000, 3 years old and up, 6 furlongs)
Glam Slam (2) ran big in an off-the-turf sprint in latest, where he was up on the pace and battled in the lane, just losing the bob. He was up against an Albertrani trainee who shipped in from Saratoga, and was 4 clear of 3rd. Both horses that have run back from that race have run 2nd, and this one has the field’s highest last-out Beyer. With Ceballos, this one should be on the engine early.
Race 4 (Md Sp Wt $40000, 2 yo, 7 furlongs)
It looks like Maynooth (4) will be the favorite in here, coming off a rallying 2nd place finish to a 3/5 favorite and running a sub-:12 final 1/8th, which indicates to me that the added furlong will not be a problem. However, he hasn’t shown any speed in his first 3 races, making him susceptible to those who can get first run on him which puts him at a big disadvantage at Laurel, particularly at a potential short price. Old Tim Flyer (6) battled early with Barry Lee in July before fading late. That race was pretty live, featuring stakes-placed VIP Code, state-bred stakes winner Owen’s Mo, and 2 other next-out winners. He’s been off since then, and it’s concerning that he only got back into regular training in November, but does sport 3 solid works in that span including a bullet here at LRL. He figures to be a decent price as well. Mary Eppler’s numbers with 2 year olds making their 2nd start are off the charts (5 for 14, 8 in the money, ROI $10.52) and Smart Step (7) made a middle-move in his debut before finishing 4th. The winner came back Saturday and just missed in the Maryland Juvenile, and the runner-up broke his maiden on Saturday. Two others came back to run in the money in their next start. Treetop Flyer (3) ran huge as a 30/1 longshot at Churchill last out, battling for the lead throughout and running 2nd behind a heavy favorite and 9 clear of 3rd. However, Cal Lynch is only 2 for his last 38 first off a trainer switch, and notable that Montanez gets the call as they haven’t teamed up since 2013.
Race 5 (Clm 7500 (7.5-6.5)N1Y, F&M, 3 years old and up, 5.5 furlongs)
Have Hope (8) has been in the restricted allowance level her last 3 where she’s showed speed and now drops into this conditional claimer where she had the advantageous outside post. Even though the chart note doesn’t show it, I thought she was slow to go 2 back and then rushed up into the pace before fading late. Three out of that race came back as runner-ups in their next starts, 2 at the allowance level. She pressed a hot pace in the last, and the top 2 at the finish were last and next-to-last at the half-mile, so I thought she did well to run 5th there.
Race 7 (Alw 7500s, Fillies and Mares 3 years old and up, 5.5 furlongs)
I’m taking a small stab with Carolina Gold (1) who comes in from a win at CT in her first start for Kieron. She stretches out from the 4.5 furlong sprints there and she’s capable of a sub-:22 first quarter, so there’s a chance she will be the speed of the speed here. Almodovar comes in to ride, and when he does, the trainer/jockey combo is deadly: over the last 2 years, these 2 are 6/10 with 9 ITM and a ROI of over $4 here at LRL.
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