Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, May 6, 2017
Kentucky Oaks Day
It’s a big day of action at Churchill Downs: Kentucky Oaks day! Fourteen of the best-three-year-old fillies in the land will square off in the Oaks, the female equivalent of the Kentucky Derby. There’s also plenty of other fantastic stakes races on the card. The first race is at 10:30 AM EDT, with the Oaks going off at 6:12 PM.
To help you out with all the action, we’ve got FREE picks & analysis from Shawn Frank (@CashWinningTix). Shawn was our Oaklawn Park handicapper over the winter, and we’re happy to have him providing Oaks coverage. Give him a follow on twitter!
Take it away, Shawn!
Kentucky OAKS Friday! An outstanding card awaits the horse player with many opportunities abound. Monitor the weather as it is expected to be sloppy and yielding. I will not be shocked if some of the non-graded stakes turf races come off. Shout out to Danonymousracing.com and John Piassek for the opportunity to share my picks with you! Follow me on Twitter @CashWinningTix. My name is Shawn Frank and I have handicapped horses for many years. I focus my handicapping on the NYRA, SA, OP, KEE and CD circuits.
Race 1: 5-3-4
#5-Biz Street-Not the best of races to start the race card. Biz-Stretch out speed has a chance to wire this bunch. Slop can carry horses with speed so let’s land here to start the card.
#3-Song of Spring-Comes in off a freshening; will like the mile and should get a nice stalking trip. Howard and Hernandez strike at a solid rate at CD.
#4-Naylor-Second start off the bench, though her numbers are a bit better on the synthetic. Attracts Lanarie who does very well at Churchill.
Race 2: 7-4-6 (DD bet 1467/5)
#7-Malibu Bonnie-Paid over 500K for this filly; also comes in with her second start of her current cycle. FloGo sticks and should be tightened for this 6.5 furlong sprint.
#4-Tiger Eyes-Catman and Prat hook up with this Peachtree charge of which has been bet heavily in her two career starts. Will be involved throughout and has every chance to break maiden turning for home.
#6-Belleta-Second career start coming from Tampa where she was bet hard in debut; has been freshened and gets Lanarie in the irons. Should run well!
Race 3: 5-2-3 (DD bet 25/7)
#5 Elate-Gets class relief after burning a ton of money since her return in early February. If she doesn’t win here, there are physical issues. I see 4/5 on this Mott charge who hits hard at Churchill Downs. This filly was pulled up in last, but didn’t miss any training.
#2 Stonetacular-Hernandez will give this filly a nice trip up on the pace. Has a nice win on an off track, which will enhance here chances if the top pick doesn’t fire.
#3-Daria’s Angle-Ran into Farrell in last at the FG, takes a class drop and should be involved throughout as well.
Race 4: 7-8-9
#7 Maquette-Loves it soft and yielding; IF this race stays on turf this one will be tough to beat for Ortiz and Brown. Second start off the layoff will be primed for best
#8 Sassy Little Lila-Another that like give in the turf, comes in fresh for Cox who can get them ready to fire off the bench on the turf. Saez has taken every mount and will be forwardly placed.
#9 Shes a True Beauty-Doesn’t mind some give in the sod and owns a win over the CD course. Reunites with FloGo and has been in the money at this distance on 4 of 6 tries.
Race 5: 8-4-1 (DD bet 14/9 and 146/49) IF race 7 IS NOT off the turf P3 146/9/3812 & 14/9/8
#4 Paid Up Subscriber-With the scratch of Finest City that open the door for Brown and Rosario. Loves CD, should run well in the slop and comes in second off the pine. If Rosario isn’t parking lot wide, will knock very hard as the top pick.
#1 Eskenformoney-Should save ground, on the rail, under JJ and owns a nice slop win back at MTH to elevate of the track is a quagmire. Owns only one win at this distance but it was in the slop as previously noted.
#6 Streamline-Ran into a monster last out, at OP, and to a lone F before that; fits much better with this bunch with Landeros knowing her well.
Race 6: 9-4
#9 American Freedom-My best bet of the card. Baffert may not have a derby entrant, but this one comes in off a freshening and LOVES the slop. Tons of back class from which to draw from as well; firing big here!
#4 Honorable Duty-Walsh has this one running very well. LOVES the distance and CD! I’m not a big fan of Graham, but has trained well coming out of the FG since last.
Race 7: 8-12-3
#8 Pure Sensation-Clement has turned into a very good turf sprint trainer. LOVES the soft ground, fires fresh and LOVES the distance! Second best bet of card!
#12 Green Mask-Gets a much better post here, and get JJ in the irons. Doesn’t like to win at the distance, but I’m counting on JJ to make a difference here.
#3 Holding Gold-Ran well at Keeneland, off the layoff, and is two for three at the distance. Fired a nice bullet two back, and gets off the rail as well.
Race 8: 2-9-10 P4 bet (2910/1,2,3,4,6,7,9,10,11,12/1,7/4,13,14)
#2 Union Strike-Since I like the filly she chased, two back, I’m taking this SA shipper on top here, though this race is a bit of a head scratcher to me. Barn changes galore, here, bit Blanc retains the mount and there isn’t much speed on either side of her. Get her out of the gate and get a nice position early!
#9 Florida Fabulous-Cuts back to 7 furlongs and should be prominent early. Paco retains the ride and ran very well, while being bet HEAILY at GP. Lots to like, and will be in a great spot turning for home.
#10 Ghalia-Back to a sprint for this TAP charge; should get a nice outside stalking trip with JR in the saddle. I wonder if this filly isn’t going to better on the turf the more I look at her breeding.
Race 9: 7-4-1
#7 Tom’s d’Etat-This race is an absolute crap shoot and I admittedly have ZERO confidence here, hence the spread on the suggested P4 ticket. Top pick here comes if off a freshening and had improved BSF wise every start. Nice work, two back, and Stall hits hard with this layoff angle.
#4 River Echo-Has gotten better for Miller and has the right running style to be a major player here. Not a big fan of Miller outside of California, but this filly has improved immensely. Rosario gets the call.
#1 Naval Gazer-Again, not enamored with this race, so let’s see if we can’t land a price. Owns a couple of nice solid figs over the CD oval and draws well at the 1 1/16 distance. One of many in here who can win.
Race 10: 7-1
#7 Proctor’s Ledge-Not much separating these two; doesn’t have the back class as the second choice, but I’m counting on her being better second off the layoff. She will get plenty of speed to close into! Will be a better price that the #1
#1 Dream Dancing-Back class, Leppy on the turf, lots to like. Will be flying late and loves this distance. I have a hard time seeing others outside of the top two here.
Race 11: 13-4-14 DD bet 41314/57
#13 Abel Tasman-Will get a TON of knock to chase in this rendition of the Oaks. Shouldn’t have an issue with an off track and Baffert will have every chance to close the deal here; adds the hood to get her into the race a bit more.
#4 Paradise Woods-Can’t knock in any way, but I smell a bounce and Mandella doesn’t do well at CD. She can bounce and still win, but at 6/5, no dice for me on top. Will be up on what I see as a hot pace.
#14 Salty-Another in here that will get pace to chase, as long as Rosario saves ground, has the sire line, along with the top pick that I like, going the 1 1/8.
Race 12: 5-4-7
#5 Minnie Blip-Second career start for Stall and attracts Lanarie.
#7 American Cleopatra-I’m going against Baffert, here, which I don’t normally do. Will Banjo get here out of the gate is my biggest concern. Has every chance to get to the wire first.
#4 Friend of Liberty-Assmussen second off the layoff figures to get pace here.
Race 13: 10-11-4
#10 Big Exchange-Ships from FG and adds the hood for Cox, who I love as a grass trainer. Should relish a soft going if this race stays on the turf.
#11 Long Night-Hoping the slight freshening helps this one. Comes in from GP and Mott retains Ortiz in the saddle; needs to improve here.
#4 Kitten’s Gold-I’m talking the chance this one likes the soft going as well. His breeding suggests he will. Comes in off the shelf for Amoss who strikes well with this type of layoff.
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