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Keeneland Picks & Analysis — Sunday, April 23, 2017

Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like? 

Sunday, April 23, 2017


On this Sunday at Keeneland, we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from our friend and returning guest handicapper Brett Strong (@Storiesdub).

We thank Brett for his thorough writeup today. He’s a regular contributor on Danonymous Racing and he always puts in the work. Give him a follow when you get a chance.

Take it away, Brett…

 Weather is iffy in the morning but should clear out in the afternoon.  Plus, it seems they’ve been able to keep the track in good form despite decent rain.  Sunday, fun day  it is!  Hopefully I can spot some decent plays and bring home some multi race wagers.  Enjoy and I can’t believe it’s only two weeks to Derby! 

Pick 4’s–

R2-  5,8
R3-  1
R4-  ALL (9 Runners)
R5-  2,4,5,10

R6-  1,4,8
R7-  7
R8-  ALL (12 Runners)
R9-  6,7,10,11

Race 1-  1-6-2
Rich Daddy will hopefully line the pockets to start.  Drops in company and catches a small and so-so field.  Paco Lopez gets in the saddle and should have this one in the right spot heading for home.  OTB Bob is a hard knocker and grinds out wins occasionally.  Albarado likes to spoil the party and OTB Bob still has it in him. Royal Blessing rounds it out.  Took this one over the rest because Gulfstream shippers do well at these ranks at Keeneland.

Race 2-  5-8-2
Brad Cox has been live as of late and Pinch Hit and Santana Jr. have a good chance to get another one.  Moves up a bit in competition but the biggest challenger is coming off a long layoff.  That challenger being Sea Holiday.  Geroux hasn’t had the best of meets but this one has some talent at this level and should be good to roll late off the cutback in distance.  First time lasix and good post draw.  Leparoux has ridden well but Colebrook hasn’t fired many this meet.  Charity Stripe has been consistent but is facing tougher here.

Race 3- 1-9-6
Since they ran on the turf yesterday, I’m going to assume they stay on it today.  Pletcher enters Grateful here and I like the post draw among other things with this one.  Will go off as a decent favorite with Castellano on board but is deservedly so.  Looks in good order coming into this race and speed figures from previous races are better than the others.  This is about as Keeneland of connections as it gets with Gentle Kitten.  Ramsey/Maker with Saez aboard on the grass is tough to ignore.  I wish this one hadn’t drawn this far outside but has the talent and should take to a soft turf course well.  Proctor is 0’fer for this meet but could spring a slight upset here.  Lopez jumps aboard She’s Tricky and that should bode well for this one’s running style.  Likes to be on the lead and will probably have to do so to have a chance to steal it.

Race 4-  7-3-2
Not a big fan of this race.  I’d probably only play this in multi race wagers.  Pavel Vaschenko has popped a couple winners here and in a weak field, Nancy Doll has a win over the track vs. similar.  Albeit was a few years ago but in this group, I had to look pretty deep to find something.  Gets a jockey with some wins here as well and works look in decent order for this start.  Corey Lanerie had himself a heck of a start to the card yesterday and could get one in this race today.  Lady Lt. has had some solid works in prep for this but goes out on dirt for the first time.  A move that isn’t a huge positive for Arnold the trainer.  Draws to the inside which is good but will be a short price.  I like seeing Bridgmohan get on board Open Invitation.  Comes back down to a better level to be competitive and gets the right field to pull off the upset.  Put in a nice work since it last raced in early April which is good and should be ready to give a solid effort.

Race 5-  4-2-10
Pletcher looks to have this field over a barrel.  Irst fired a bullet in preparation for this and ran vs. much better at Saratoga last out.  I’m not a huge fan of taking first time starters in 7 furlong races as its a little bit of a tricky distance to debut at.  My top two selections in here will be runners that have had previous starts.  They obviously liked Extricate in its debut as it took a lot of money but ran second.  Lanerie could possibly go back to back although Irst will be tough to beat.  Speed figure from the last came back nice and I expect Extricate to be in the mix.  Of the first timers, I looked to the outside with Joe Sharp’s Blanco Y Negro.  This ones Dam has already had one winner from only one starter and ran a hole in the wind in its last workout in prep for this.  Might be a little higher on this one if the post draw was better but if it pops, could surprise this field.

Race 6-  8-4-1
This is a nice, deep and talented field for this turf affair.  I landed on the chalk Enchanting Kitten with Leparoux up for Chad Brown and Ken Ramsey.  Brown is 40% this meet and everything points to this one being a runner.  Dancing Waves is bred well for the turf but moving from the Chad Brown barn to Brad Cox isn’t really a positive.  Has had a couple nice works here at Keeneland and you should get a solid price here.  Especially with Enchanting Kitten and my next selection Victory to Victory in the race.  Those two will take most of the money.  Victory to Victory comes in off a long layoff but has been working very nicely of recent.  Might need a race but does come in off a Grade 1 victory so will be facing a lesser group from last time out.

Race 7- 7-3-4-2
As you can see, I like a few runners in this race.  Pletcher should get himself a couple wins today and this is a solid chance to do so.  Mo d’Amour has everything going for it.  Post draw, rider, a couple back to back to back nice works and should take this race.  Wonderment is intriguing to me as this is the type of race McPeek likes to spoil the party in.  Albarado likes to ride home big prices at Keeneland and this one will definitely have the value.  Blip n’ Th Bye bested Stageplay last time they faced each other and I’ll keep it that way here again as well.

Race 8-  12-8-4-5
This looks to me like the race you see the biggest price in today.  A couple short priced horses drew to the inside which is not really where you want to be sprinting on the turf at Keeneland.  Colebrook has a nice chance to pop one into the winners circle with Vici.  Comes in cutting back in distance and draws a nice post to get out front and take them all the way.  This will be an interesting race and I may end up taking the field in the Pick 4.  Whiskey Bravo is a consistent sprinter and Amoss gets him a few wins at Keeneland every meet.  Wagon Boss also gets a cutback in distance to what seems to be the preferred sprint distance and Paco Lopez will be ready to go out of the gate.  Loose On the Town has the connections but hasn’t run I a while.  Works don’t look that great so maybe this is a warm up race for something coming up soon.

Race 9-  10-11-7
I like Kid Perfect to finish off the day here.  McPeek draws an okay field and this one has faced better in its previous races.  Draws well for a sprint and Gazader has won a race in very limited mounts this meet.  Chester Mon has a few things going, gets blinkers off, a move in which Cox is 35% at.  Threw in a very solid work a week or so ago and looks primed and ready.  Gets a nice post draw for the sprint and should be a player.  I’ll be interested to see how Perfect Cuppajoe runs here.  Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and Moquett can have them ready to fire first out.  Santana Jr. has won with only a few mounts and this one should be a pretty big price at post time.


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1 Comment

  1. Very informative analysis thanks

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