Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, October 28, 2017
On this closing Saturday at Keeneland, we’ve got FREE picks & analysis of the action from our friend and returning guest handicapper Brett Strong (@Storiesdub).
We thank Brett for his thorough writeup today. He’s a regular contributor on Danonymous Racing and he always puts in the work. Give him a follow when you get a chance.
Take it away, Brett…
Not sure what track conditions will be but weather looks to hold up once we get close to post time. Hope to cash some tickets today to help bolster the BC bankroll!! Hope everyone had a good Keeneland meet and we shall see you next Spring!! Go Cats, Beat the Vols and good luck on closing day! I stuck to the Pick 4 races today so I did leave out the 1st and 6th races.
Race 2- 4-6-5
McKee gets this one for its second go around here at Keeneland. Fits with the group and should be right there. More Than Shirl has put together a nice little streak of wins but steps up a bit in class. Mason has solid number first after the claim but at what will probably be post time favoritism, it’s a tough bet. If you toss the recent turf try, Googleado has the best numbers and is dropping in class. A must use in Pick 4 but can’t endorse straight up.
Race 3- 8-3-10
I like quite the price in the third race today. Comes in off a small layoff after just being beaten at Ellis Park. Camacho surprised once already this meet in very limited rides and this could be the big kicker in the Pick 4. I have a sneaking suspicion Ramsey must be in the hunt for the owner title this meet as he has a lot of entries in that are all possible winners. Pray For Kitten can beat this group and has the best connections in the race. Not sure what you’ll get out of Par Play today but ran well first out and does get a nice post for the sprint distance.
Race 4- 1-2-6
Hoping to have the 1A over the 1 if one of them scratches but both can win this race. 1A drops from MSW, gets top rider and second time around the track this meet. Gretouki gets the rail which isn’t a bad place to be going 7 furlongs. Albarado up for McPeek and comes in off a short rest and should be ready to go. I think we could see a few upsets early here and My Soldier Girl is one of them. Has the most experience and hasn’t run horribly. Hasn’t faced much but the first timers in this group don’t look ready to win yet either. Should be quite the price.
Race 5- 9-6-2
I’d recommend having a fair amount of these runners alive in the Pick 4. Wide open bunch that could bust open. Bandito looks pretty solid for its second start and should enjoy the stretch out. I’m usually leery of taking a firster going long on the turf but the connections are all there for Tomahawk Kitten. Blue Lute probably comes in off the best previous race from being up at Saratoga. Gets Lanerie aboard and a nice post draw as well. Turned in a solid 6 furlong work in prep for this and also gets Lasix for the first time.
Early Pick 4-
Race 7- 1-5-9
The 1/1A should get you through the first leg of the Late Pick 4. Another Ramsey dual entry and by far, the 1A has been facing much better groups. Only thing that bugs me is the post draw. Drawn to the outside for both of them. Makes it slightly more difficult. Don’t see a reason why Mr. Cub can’t be a contender in here. Gets a favorable post draw, has faced some decent fields and put in a nice work heading into this race. Nileator in with a shot but would need some help to get the job done. I don’t think you’ll get soft fractions here with some speed signed on and that’s what this one would need.
Race 8- 1-5-2
I struggle putting Tarquinia on top with the rail draw going 6 furlongs. But this one is probably the best of the group. I’d recommend spreading in this race in the Pick 4. I’ll go to Fun as the second choice. Has faced better, draws a nice post and gets a pretty big turn back in distance while going 3rd race in the cycle. Shar Ran comes in off the maiden score and looks like a solid runner but most horses don’t repeat after a maiden win and this one while having a chance, will probably be more of an underneath play.
Race 9- 2-9
This is a two horse race on paper and I think that holds true. Neolithic is going to try and take it on the front end and McCracken is going to try and run him down. I’ll take the front end on this one and say Neolithic holds off McCraken storming home. I’d have both in the Pick 4.
Race 10- 9-7-4
Defrock will hopefully get Bill Mott off the goose egg in the final race on the final day. I’d still have a handful of these to close out the Pick 4 though. Awesome Song looked like it needed a break and if comes in fresh, should be in the mix with Leparoux on board. I wish Leparoux had jumped back on Lovin’ Empire but still gets Lanerie and fits with this bunch. Gets back to turf after an okay showing when getting bumped off the turf and a sloppy track.
Late Pick 4-
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