Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, October 22, 2017
On this Saturday at Keeneland, we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS of all ten races from our friend and returning guest handicapper Brett Strong (@Storiesdub).
We thank Brett for his thorough writeup today. He’s a regular contributor on Danonymous Racing and he always puts in the work. Give him a follow when you get a chance.
Take it away, Brett…
Should be a nice day in the Bluegrass today. Interesting card with the feature being the Raven Run. Enjoy the weekend, Go Cats, hope you cash some tickets!!
R5- ALL (12 Runners)
Race 1- 4-7-2
Catalano should have a winner here. Drops and comes in off a steady worktab after the debut. Speed figures are second best in the field of those with experience, second to Nonikas Thunder who I really don’t like all that much. Mizz Fabulous looks like a contender first out. Has more than a couple good leans in having a win early attitude. Lanerie helps. Maker isn’t great first out but he and Ortiz both have high win percentages and this field is average.
Race 2- 8-6-7
Amoss first off the claim going route to sprint with Geroux on board is my choice here. Whenwillicuagain is an interesting price play. McGee has had a couple winners already in a small sample size so I like the possible streakiness effect here. Unfading Beauty is the best of the rest. Has a shot with some experience and good rider but will be a lower price than I’d take.
Race 3- 7-1-3
Conquest Windycity gets a slight nod over others. This feels like a spread race. Lanerie draws the outside and should have Conquest in the right spot. Society Beau is a sneaky play and should be a good price. Weaver puts Clear the Mine in for the second time this meet and that worked well last time this one was here at Keeneland.
Race 4- 7-5-2
Hard not to like Kirbys Penny. Sometimes you just take the chalk and move on, this is one of those. If you have deeper pockets, I could make a case for these other two. China Grove will compete, Mercer Slough is a bombsaway shot. Outmatched but if the race falls apart, could shock.
Race 5- 10-1-11
Coach Rocks has some good experience leading into this one and catches a fairly weak group. Nothing in here looks overwhelmingly great and if Coach Rocks runs just the same race as it did at KD, should win this. Queens Fate should benefit from the added distance and also adds Leparoux which is a big help. Draws the inside post for a nice ground saving stalking trip and should be there at the end. Track Rose is another Maker horse entered and has been working well since the debut. Lanerie has gotten a little cold so it’s tough to put this one on top but the talent looks to be there. If Daddy Is A Legend gets in, the George Weaver runner is a must use.
Race 6- 9-2-5
This is another spread out race. I don’t particularly love any horse here. Minyerownmalone will get the nod. Amoss and Moss on the reclaim and gets Geroux up. True West likes to win and although hasn’t faced that great of competition, sometimes horses just get the job done. Could be what happens here. Futile hasn’t run well recently but has put in some good races and if can find that form again, against this group is where it could happen.
Race 7- 7-11-2
Elusive Truth stands out on paper in this MSW race. Ran a solid race on debut and comes back in a similar situation and with one under its belt, should get it done here. Santana is riding well lately and has a win early pedigree. Motion hasn’t had a winner at Keeneland yet but this one looks like it could run well. Well bred and the dam has a 50% win rate with 2 year olds. Not a bad stat to see. Princessof the Nyl showed some speed on debut and draws down to the inside which could bode well if Jon Court will get to the front and see if it can hold.
Race 8- 2-9-3
Cherry Lodge should sit a nice trip from the inside and will have plenty of speed early and should hold coming in on a cutback in distance. Has faced better than the others here and the connections can’t be dismissed. I’m not a huge fan of the post draw for Smiling Causeway but is another one that likes to win. Hasn’t faced stellar fields but will be in contention late and wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a very tight finish. Spellker has the experience in this type of race and I like the inside post.
Race 9- 4-8-2
Pletcher should get his picture taken here. Comes in having faced better competition, has success at the distance and draws a good post. Not a huge fan of DeCarlo but the percentages are there for he and Pletcher as a team. I like that Peter a Miller is bringing Chalon back for he second time this meet. Paco should give him a good chance to finally get the job done at Keeneland. Jose Ortiz jumping on Overture makes me look twice even though Bill Mott hasn’t had a winner this meet. Post draw helps and Ortiz can ride. Will be a nice price.
Race 10- 9-5-7
Shug has the experience here with Jaunt. Ortiz gets on and this one should appreciate stretching back out. Hallie Belle goes second off the layoff for Stidham who has had some success this meet. Albarado jumps aboard and could be an overlay from 9/2 Morning Line. Worth a look. Time To Flirt almost got it done two back at Belmont. Goes back to that same distance and Brad Cox has a good win percent right now in turf starts. Add in Santana is seeing the ball well right now, could be a factor.
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