Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, December 3, 2017
Today’s the second day of the Gulfstream Park season! Ten races are on the schedule, with a first post time of 12:35 PM EST.
We’re happy to have Paul Hundley (@vapaul67) providing FREE picks & analysis of the 10-race program. Be sure to give Paul a follow on twitter; he’ll be handicapping Gulfstream every Sunday of the meet.
Take it away, Paul!
Hello everyone and welcome back to Sundays at Gulfstream! For the 2nd consecutive year, I have the honor of doing Sunday analysis and selections for Gulfstream for this site. We have 10 races today, so let’s stop the talk, walk the walk, and beat the chalk!
RACE 1: We begin the day with a scheduled for turf 16K claimer going 7.5 furlongs. 3-LOYA is one of only 2 horses in here that may want to be forwardly placed early, along with 8-Brianna’s Bucket, who has won 2 of last 3. LOYA will be making first start at Gulfstream, and I think should get the lead early because I believe she’s faster early, not to mention has a more inside post than pace rival. Gets Brian Pedroza today, who is having a good year at 21% from 234 starts. Will need to get a good start because last 2 times was not able to get lead early ran well out of the money. 5-Fearless Princess ran vs starter allowance company last out and is 2nd off the claim for Victor Barboza, who is 6 of last 10 in that category and 21% 2nd off layoff. Barboza and Emisael Jaramillo are 38% together last 26 starts.
6-College Holly goes dirt to turf but ran very competitive at lower claiming levels than today back in the early fall here. Switches to Jose Lezcano.
RACE 2: This $6,250 n2l claimer is not strong, even by this low levels’ standards. 1-PARTY TARDE drops in class and is 3rd off the layoff. Has early speed breaking from the rail, in fact is probably fastest early of these. Jaramillo sure has a lot of live mounts today, could be a big day for him with the bigger name jockeys not in town yet. Plus, my wife watches the show “Don’t be Tardy” (For The Party) so my wife would be very upset with me if I don’t pick him.
8-He Wears the Crown was 2nd the last time at this level beaten 2 lengths. Drops from $12.5K beaten claiming. Only 1 of 26, but does have 6 Place finishes.
6-Mamachita was 4th vs n3l last out, 2nd vs similar to today, and, well, someone has to finish 3rd in here.
RACE 3: This 6 furlong event for $12.5K Maiden Claimers actually seems like a pretty decent affair with a lot of reasonable choices. Trying to beat the probable favorite here with 3-FLATTRIP, who set a brisk pace, well for 10K MC standards, in debut going 1 mile, lead all the way until in stretch, settling for 2nd beaten a length. Now cuts back, and that’s not the only thing cut about him. Is a First Time Gelding, and Gustavo Delgado is 20% moving horses up a class.
7-X Y Runner, the probable favorite, takes a major class drop for Jorge Navarro, who’s 34% MSW to Maiden Claiming. Has shown early speed in previous 2 races. Obviously the one to beat, but ever since the “Juice Man” video decision Navarro’s winning percentage since has been half of what it was up until that point in 2017.
If not for the 13 month layoff, 8-Royal Pavilion may have been my top selection. Another who has showed good speed in all previous 3 races on dirt. Trainer Saffie Joseph however, is only 2 for last 25 with horses off long layoffs.
RACE 4: Another sprint race and trying once again to beat a Navarro horse that more than likely will be favored. 3-AMERICAN TZAR won at the N3L last out, cuts back from a mile and has good early speed. Also won here in July N2L at 7 furlongs.
7-Be a Hero as mentioned is the 1 to beat here. Before last race trying turf, had won previous 3 races. Navarro is 30% turf to dirt, and also is another with good early speed. Is 0 for 3 at the distance however, and has never raced at Gulfstream.
2-Inmyfathersimage probably has the best late kick of all, and if the speed duels each other too hard, could be the one to blow by all them late. Is getting 5-6lbs on most in here.
RACE 5: We switch back to turf for this 20K Maiden Claimer going the unusual 7 1/2 furlong distance. 5-DYNAMIC DANCER is 0 for 12, but most have been versus MSW. Last time in 4 a tag in January almost won here. Biancone 3 for last 13 MSW to MC. Should be forwardly placed early.
6-Another Softball is another with early speed, also 0 for 12 but last 4 have been ITM. Has however, been a beaten favorite last two starts, so beware of backing at a short price.
2-Ruckus ran versus tougher last out, 2 back was well beaten but still a respectable 2nd at today’s level, track, and distance. Ralph Nicks 19% third off a layoff.
RACE 6: This is a tricky race because there’s only 2 in here that have even raced. That being said, going with FTS 3-MARRIAGE COUNSELOR, who is by hot sire Overanalyze, who’s hitting 20% FTS. The dam, EXE, is a former Stakes winner and her racing foals have gone 3 for 3 so far. Mike Maker could’ve kept this one at Turfway and probably broken Maiden no problem, but instead sends to a tougher circuit in the Gulfstream Championship meet. Like the confidence, and probably landed in a good spot today with so many other FTS.6-Watschan looks to be the better of the two in her that previously raced. Was 3rd of 9 last out, and cuts back from 1 mile.
7-Noble Indy is a FTS for Todd Pletcher (23%) is out of Stakes winning mare Noble Maz, whose only progeny to race so far won.Tyler Gaffalione rides.
RACE 7: Another turf route here. 6-SET ME UP broke maiden 2 back, last out was posted wide vs 25K n2l but still beat 8 horses home to finish a respectable 4th of 12. Edgard Zayas, who has been hot in the last week or so, has the mount.
9-Dream Trip looks to be 1 of only a couple in here who look to be forwardly placed. Ran up the track last out in a 40K n2l. Switches to Jose Lezcano, who proved over the summer in New York that he’s one of the better front end turf jockeys around, rides. Is 2nd off the layoff for Brian Lynch.
8-Terry’s Charm goes dirt to turf for Steve Dwoskin (18%). Has only 1 win from 22 starts, but 8 show finishes.
RACE 8: We go back to dirt for this Maiden Claimer for 2 year olds. 2-POWER JAK goes turf to dirt for Gilberto Zerpa (37%), has early speed, and is taking Blinkers Off (18%). Was 2nd at this level in debut.
For many reasons, would loves to see 12-Thanks Mom takes this for Kenwood Racing and Wasabi Ventues. Makes 2nd career start after facing tougher, yet doing little, in debut. Puts blinkers on today, and Nik Juarez jumps aboard.
6-Pray Pray Pray is a FTS for Angel Rodriguez, who’s hitting an incredible 30%. Dam has produced 5 winners in 5 starters, all at the age of 2.
RACE 9: Feature race today is this $25K Optional Claimer going 5 furlongs on turf. 3-DUBAI BOB is my top pick, but I’m trying to figure out a catchy name for the Jockey/Trainer combo of Edgard Zayas and Kirk Ziadie. The Z Connection? Z & Z Express? Z Nation? Whatever you call them, they’re 6 of last 14 together. Since being claimed 4 back, horse has ran good speed figures. Has early speed, concern is there are plenty in here that have that same quality.
7-The Zip Zip Man(more Z’s) shows all his “Zip” late. With the potential for a pace meltdown, could be chief benefactor. Was on hand last time out at Laurel to view his impressive late run in person. Trainer David Nunn 22% with horses who won their last race.
4-Uncle B has mostly been running on the Tapeta at Woodbine but earlier this year ran a race at Gulfstream that would win today.
RACE 10: We close the day with this Maiden Claimer on the turf. Going back to Leparoux, Mike Maker, and The Ramsey’s with another FTS in 7-KITTEN OF THE NILE. Really doesn’t look like a strong field so this well bred daughter of Kitten’s Joy has a good shot. KJ wins 15% 1st turf, Maker wins 14% with debut turfers.
3-Karenina ran a respectable 3rd last out after dropping back into maiden claiming company. Is making first start for Gustavo Delgado (19%). Jaramillo and Delgado are 5 of their last 10 together.
2-Ms. Summation debuted at 50K level, showed brief speed before fading for Wesley Ward. Switches to turf, drops in class, takes Blinkers Off and Nik Juarez jumps aboard. Ward is 22% first turf, and 19% 2nd career race.
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