Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, December 17, 2017
Another great Sunday of racing in Hallandale Beach, Florida, is on tap! Eleven races are on the schedule, with a first post time of 12:35 PM EST.
We’re happy to have Paul Hundley (@vapaul67) providing FREE picks & analysis of the program. Be sure to give Paul a follow on twitter; he’s handicapped Florida and New York racing in the past, and he’ll be handicapping Gulfstream every Sunday of the meet.
Take it away, Paul!
Hello once again everyone, I’m trying to keep it quiet right now though. I’m writing this just literally a few hours after The Beemie Awards were presented, so I’m still a little hungover from the after party. Gulfstream has 11 races today to dig into, and hopefully we can keep our positive ROI we have for our top selections through 2 weeks. Helped by 13/1 shot TOUCH OF QUALITY n Race 2 (we’re 2 for 2 in Race 2 so far!) last Sunday. So let’s try to make some last minute Christmas cash!
RACE 1: I’ve often said the turf sprint division is my favorite in all of racing, so this 5 furlong Optional Claimer for 2 year olds has me salivating right now (or it could be that I’m getting ready to make biscuits and Gravy with bacon, either way) there’s a lot of different ways you could go in here, and difficult to believe you would be able to single here for the Pick 5. Going with the horse that broke its maiden last out while earning the highest BRIS Speed Figure of anyone in here, 6-CLOUDED JUDGEMENT. Horse chased a very quick pace, by Laurel Park’s time standards, last out before taking over in the turn for a relatively easy win. I see a similar scenario today, because of the other 7 entrants here they all like to be within a length of the lead early on. Edgar Prado takes over the mount today riding for Lacey Gaudet. 7-El Dulce ran 9th last out in the Juvenile Turf Sprint on the Breeders Cup Saturday undercard. Broke maiden in debut at the Saratoga meet, and now has first race at his probable winter residence. I don’t have to explain how dangerous a combination JRV/TAP are, but since I’m already on that road, I will. 40% their last 43 starts together! +.74 ROI! Pletcher already is 11/26 at the meet, and Johnny V 7/23 (statistics as of Wednesday 12/13) will be gunning early, especially coming from outside. 1-Bourbon Currency pressured the pace going a mile last out at Belmont in a listed Stakes before fading to be next to last, b4 that won his turf debut there. Is out of the popular Stakes winning mare Cash for Clunkers. Love the jock switch to Juarez from Rajiv, who isn’t very good on turf (or dirt, or synthetic)and will be close to the pace early from the rail. That 4 furlong drill on the 9th shows me he’s coming in keen. 5-McErin for Wesley Ward also ran in the Juvy Turf Sprint on Breeders Cup Day, pressing pace before faltering to last. Had made a nice showing of himself over the summer at Royal Ascot in a Group 2 in his turf debut. Probably needed that 11/4 race since was first off 4 1/2 months. Takes Blinkers Off today. Could easily see any of these 4 winning.
RACE 2: Next up we have a N3L for $12.5K Claimers going the elongated sprint distance of 7 furlongs. I apologize in advance, but I got to eat the chalk here in 4-PROMETE, who destroyed $16K beaten claimers by 12 lengths last out gate to wire at 3/5. I won’t say there aren’t concerns though. Is 0 for 4 at Gulfstream, Trainer Gilberto Zerpa is 25% with winners last race, but 0 for 2 dropping off a win. Plus his only try at 7 furlongs was a well beaten 3rd, but at a much tougher level. Still, Zerpa and Jaramillo are 5 of last 12 together, and I don’t see anyone in here faster than him early. 1-Entangled goes turf to dirt and takes a big class drop for Ralph Nicks, is also a First time gelding. Nicks is 25% turf to dirt, but the combination of he and Tyler Gaffalione are 0 for last 12. Will either be stalking or coming from about 3-4 lengths off the pace. 5-Legacy Azteca has been off 6 months since being eased in 1st off the claim for Stanley Gold. Normally these are the types of horses I run away from, but I admire how Gold has been patient bringing him back, giving him a weekly work since 10/27 without missing one week. Gold is also 4 of last 12 Second off the claim, and the horse has 8 ITM finishes in 12 starts at Gulfstream. Not sure what running style will be used for him today, has stalked and went to the lead in the past. UPDATE: I checked the morning line and the 1 is the favorite, not my 4. More evidence of why I’m not a Linesmaker nor would I want to be.
UPDATE 2: I cut the wires in half that go to the charging part of my computer! Luckily I have my picks, unfortunately no comments to go with the next 9 races. I sincerely apologize. I love Toshiba Satellite Computers, but the top covers keep coming off and this happens.
RACE 3: 7-6-2-3
RACE 4: 8-11-7
RACE 5: 5-1-6
RACE 6: 1-2-7-3
RACE 7: 2-3-9
RACE 8: 1-6-9-4
RACE 9: 1-9-8
RACE 10: 6-8-4
RACE 11: 3-7-9-5
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