Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, December 10, 2017
Another great Sunday of racing in Hallandale Beach, Florida, is on tap! Ten races are on the schedule, with a first post time of 12:35 PM EST.
We’re happy to have Paul Hundley (@vapaul67) providing FREE picks & analysis of the 10-race program. Be sure to give Paul a follow on twitter; he’ll be handicapping Gulfstream every Sunday of the meet.
Take it away, Paul!
Hello everyone and welcome to the 2nd Sunday of action for the Gulfstream Park Championship Meet. Last week we started out hitting the early double cold with a 7/1 and an odds on coming in. After that unfortunately, it was all downhill with a couple of 2nd place finishes. Let’s see if we can do better this week.
RACE 1: We start the day with a $6,250 claimer that really comes down to 3 horses IMO. 6-ABTAAL won easily at this level last out, which was his first time over a fast dirt track. Before that scored a win on a sloppy track. Both races were for Elizabeth Dobles, who claimed him the race before. 8-Russian Greek also has won last 2 starts, both convincingly. Has been off for 3 months, but trainer Jorge Navarro is 33% with layoffs 90 days or longer and 5 of last 13 dropping off a win. Will be the one to chase down, and could easily grab a big lead and not look back. 1-Donegal Hall was well beaten last week in the Claiming Crown Express but the 2 races before that he won both at today’s level. Concern is the 0 for 7 at the 1 mile distance.
RACE 2: Much tougher race. 9-TOUCH OF QUALITY was a close 3rd at 25/20K last out, and the last time she ran for 16K won by a length. Has very good early speed, is 3 for 5 at Gulfstream and 3 for 6 at the distance. 2-Hug a Tree was 2nd at 20K level 2 back at Laurel, and will be coming off the pace under the ride of Nik Juarez. 3-Bistro Moncur has been in the money 5 straight and gets one of the better turf jocks in the business today in Joel Rosario. Has not raced since August, but Wesley Ward is 22% off long layoffs.
RACE 3: This race has a severe lack of early pace, which I think benefits 1-FLEMISH CAP. Won the last race on an off track gate to wire, 2 back stalked pace early before winning. 4-Giuseppe the Great has ran in Grade 1 and Grade 2’s the last half-dozen races since breaking maiden. Has certainly faced better than others in here, but the lack of pace for this closer to run at, plus short odds on a horse who is just 1 of 9, are major concerns. 3-Cheech Thunder will also be coming off the pace, before last race where he stumbled at the start had been in the money 4 of last 5 races.
RACE 4: Bottom level Maiden Claimer here and really no one stands out. 2-APPEALING MUSIC was bet to 3-1 vs a tougher level in debut, didn’t start running until she was well out of it. Puts Blinkers On today and drops here, Trainer Rodolfo Garcia 33% dropping 2 or more class levels. 10-Final Flurry drops from MC40K and goes turf to dirt for Gary Gullo, 32% down 2 or more classes. Is 2 for 2 ITM on fast dirt. 7-Little Florentina looks to be the early speed here, and could steal it on front end but has failed multiple times vs lower level when having a clear lead in stretch. Perhaps switch to Luis Saez will do trick.
RACE 5: Another Maiden Claimer, this one on turf, presents another intriguing race with no clear horse to beat. 4-FLEDERMAUS drops from 2 efforts at 35K level in first two career starts with a pair of thirds as the result. Showed more early speed last out and could vie for the early lead. Is 2nd off the layoff for Michael Yates. 5-Thunder and Rain is a FTS for Todd Pletcher (23%), Dam has already produced 3 winners on turf in 6 starters, and 2 stakes winners. 12-All Hands on Deck takes a huge drop from MSW but has only beaten 3 horses out of 18 home in first two. Nonetheless garners respect because of drop and connections of The Ramsey’s, Mike Maker and Tyler Gaffalione.
Early Pick 5 Ticket : 1,6,8/2,3,9,12/1,4/2,10/4,5,12 $72 ticket for a $.50 play
RACE 6: We stay on the turf to begin the Late Pick 5 sequence with another head scratcher in this 16K n3l. 9-ALL I KARABOUT was 2nd vs a similar level last time out at Laurel and gets a positive jock switch to Rosario. Two years ago was competing versus stakes company and while not successful there, the claiming ranks are more to his liking. Not sure he draws in, but 16-Thoristic is probably the most consistent horse in field. Has been ITM last 6 races, 5 of them in exacta, including a 3 length win last out. The main concern should he draw in is a far outside post in a short run to the first turn for this event. Trainer Bobby Dibona 30% claim repeaters and 22% with winners in last race. 2-Love My Cotton also won his last race at 8Kn2l, and because of his inside post and recent tactics employed may be the early leader here. Trainer Allen Iwinski a solid year with limited amount of starters.
RACE 7: We have a MSW 6F on the dirt to start late Pick 4 which I will offer a ticket. Only 2 of the 8 entered have even raced one time, 3-TREASURE IN HEAVEN fared the better of the 2 in their debut, pressuring the pace all the way through before settling for 3rd, beating 9 others home. Cuts back a furlong today and the advantage of having raced is often overlooked. Switches to arguably the best jockey in the U.S. in Javier Castellano. There are plenty of reasons to like FTS 2-Show Girl; Mark Casse hits 16% FTS, Sire Distorted Humor 15%, the Dam a former Stakes Winner who has produced 1 winner. The combination of Casse and Tyler Gaffalione have won their last 4 starts together. 7-Sara Street is a FTS by Street Sense, trained by Kiaran Mclaughlin (16%), her Dam is also a Stakes Winner and a perfect 2/2 with racing progeny. 5-Muchacha Uno is another FTS that should not be overlooked with John Velazquez riding. Using all 4 for my ticket.
RACE 8: Back to the turf for a competitive 50K Optional Claimer. 2-SECOND MATE finished a disappointing 6th last out at 3-1 vs optional claimers at Laurel, but his last 2 races he finished 6th in, he followed them up with a victory. Trainer Jane Cibelli is 27% 2nd off a layoff and horse has fared very well at Gulfstream (4-2-1-0) Off the pace style should fare well in a race where there appears to be a good amount of early speed, so hopefully we won’t see a half mile in :50 or more here. 9-Total Joint had a streak of 7 straight ITM finishes broken last out in the Sunshine Millions Turf Preview but should be stalking pace early here and could very well get first try at taking over in stretch. Gaffalione and Servis make a potent combination here. 8-Tricked Up has been TRIPLE DIGIT odds his last 2 starts, though both versus Graded company. Will be hard charging in the stretch, worry is he will be too far out of it early to catch leaders at the end. Still, a must use for me because his last 2 are not indicative of what he goes against today. Also want to use 6-My Point Exactly in late Pick 4, as I think he could be pacesetter and while I don’t think this race will be won gate to wire, sometimes when a horse grabs an early lead the others will concede it, which makes pacesetter dangerous.
RACE 9: Feature race today on dirt is this $50K Starter Allowance race for 2 year olds. 2-SALAMBO set pace last going 1 mile on turf in a stakes before fading, but 2 back dominated Florida bred MSWs and I believe he will be pacesetter here today, and they will have to prove they can catch him. 6-Fortune Cookie broke slow and lost all chance vs level last out at Churchill, but 2 back at Belmont broke maiden in dirt debut. Rosario rides for 1st time. 1-Can’t Say No cuts back from 1 mile after setting pace vs Optional Claimers, adds Blinkers in 2nd start for Jorge Navarro (32% ft Blinkers ) nice bullet work on December 3rd.
RACE 10: Final race of the program is a MC 25K on turf. 5-STUCK WITH YOU was not given the best of rides last out by Jose Batista in turf debut, saving ground on the rail before being switched to the outside in stretch. Albin Jimenez rides today, and is a respectable 17% for 2017. The drop from $35K also should help. 8-Go Hippo Go disappointed badly at 1-2 after 2 competitive races vs MSWs to start career. Should be showing early speed today and may even be early leader. 11-Revolving Son was placed 3rd by DQ after crossing line 2nd beaten only 1/2 length in debut vs MC 20K. Trainer Armando De la Cerda 20% for 2017. 13-Miago drops from MSWs and if he draws in will take money. Not sure what to make of last race flop but had been fairly competitive the previous 4 races and class drop should help. Using all 4 for the Pick 4.
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 2,3,5,7/2,6,8,9/1,2,6/5,8,11,
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