Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, March 3, 2018
Gulfstream’s got a loaded card this Saturday! It’s a 14-race whopper of a program, headlined by the Fountain of Youth Stakes, featuring ten three-year-old males. It will be the finale on the day, with a post time of 6:09 PM EST. The first race will be at 11:30 AM EST.
We’re happy to have Shane Claypool (@SaratogaShaneR) providing free picks & analysis of all the races! Based at Canterbury Park, Shane is a very sharp handicapper, and we’ll be featuring his picks & analysis of Gulfstream Saturdays throughout the championship meet! Be sure to give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along out there!
It’s another Championship Meet Saturday that is chock-full of racing with a whopping 14 race card, which is highlighted by a Road the Derby prep race with 50 points on the line in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth stakes.
Last week saw the struggle continue, and any stance on my shot of the day or a single on a pick 5 and pick 4 seemed to encounter trouble at the gate and were unable to recover. It’s a new month however, and spring is quickly approaching. We’ll try and heat up just like the temperatures outside. For those of you keeping track, below are the statistics for Saturdays at Gulfstream throughout the Championship Meet. With that out of the way let’s get to the races!
|Top Selection||32 of 140 or 22.9%|
|ROI (based on $2 win wager for top selection)||0.78|
|Shot of the Day||5 for 12 or 41.6%|
Wishfully (4) will be returning to the dirt surface and should be getting her first try at what appears to be a firm surface and has a shown speed. The connections have a 28% win rate turf to dirt and Tyler Gaffalione is the same jockey that broke the maiden 2 back. She’s Spoiled (7) ran 3rd in that same race as Nautica last out but part of that may be due to the running line indication of a slow start. This one also has a victory in the same race as Wishfully under the good dirt surface at Gulfstream Park West. Nautia (3) is another one that will be returning to the dirt after a try that wasn’t fruitful last out and the try before that was a 2nd place finish at this level.
Kikinboy (3) will be making his debut at Gulfstream Park after running at Fairgrounds. Both running lines indicate poor breaks from the gate but now under trainer Gustavo Delgado there are a few bullet workouts at Gulfstream Park West so perhaps there’s a little correction that can lead to this Curlin colt breaking the maiden in career start 3. Four Freedoms (10) has shown speed in all of his starts but has been unable to hold it to the finish line but perhaps with the group running this one can take this group gate to wire. Travy Boy (5) will look to take a step forward after a stumbled slow debut start and will be cutting back in distance will help this one make a big move in start 2.
Amace (2) has hit the board in 3 straight and is running for a barn that is 33% in 329 starts at the claiming level. Irad Ortiz retains the mount for this 6 year old gelding out of Tale of the Cat. Perfect Tay (4) is dropping from allowance and handicap level to claiming $6,250 which may be a bit of a red flag however you can see that the barn has a good track record with making the surface switch and with top rider of the meet Luis Saez taking the mount this one could easily be the best of this group. Big Boy Bruno (8) will be cutting back in distance and has been improving hitting the board in his last 4 races including a 2nd place finish last out.
The first stakes race of the day is here with the Grade 3 Very One. Holy Helena (4) is 1 for 1 on the grass and is the leading money earner in this group having multiple stakes wins at Woodbine. This will be the longest distance traveled to date however the pedigree does suggest this filly should be able to handle it. Darling Duchess (3) was a close 2nd last out in a grade 3 on January 27th at Gulfstream Park and has been running at distances longer than this for most of her career however the graded stakes win has eluded her to date. Summersault (6) is a graded stakes winner who will need to improve in start 2 of the 6 year old campaign to find the winners circle and will look to do that with new pilot Javier Castellano.
Celestine (1) is 5 for 9 on the Gulfstream Park turf and is multiple graded stakes winner who will be adding a extra half furlong for start number 2 of the season and will loom the heavy favorite at post time being 6 for 11 at the distance and $1,000,000 horse in a field where the next highest is just over $200,000. Grizzel (3) is coming off a layoff after running at Wodbine for the Michael Doyle barn and will be getting Castellano in the irons who is 19% in 198 starts for the meet. Team of Teams (5) has early speed and if she can get out to a loose lead and if so may be able to wire the field.
The Grade 3 Palm Beach will have 7 runners going for a purse of $100,000. The heavy favorite is also my SHOT OF THE DAY in Speed Franco (1) has crossed the line first in 3 out of 4 starts but only has 2 wins to his credit. This colt out of Declaration of War should be near the front and has shown the ability to win on the lead as well as the ability to rate so this one could be a bargain at the morning line of 9-5. Neepwa (4) will be in deep in this one facing winners for the first time but the win last out at this distance was good winning by 2 ¼ lengths. If this Scat Daddy colt can improve off of that victory perhaps he can pull off the upset at a morning line of 8-1. Therapist (6) is undefeated and a two time stakes winner who will retain Irad Ortiz for his first try at graded stakes company.
Thewayiam (3) has done little wrong since coming to the states winning 3 out of 4 races including a grade 3 last out here at Gulfstream Park. Jose Ortiz will retain the mount when having others that he’s previously ridden. Brattata (4) is a horse that finally put it all together to get into the winner’s circle last out. This 3 year old filly out of More Than Ready does have experience against winners having raced in a stakes as a maiden back in November at Aqueduct and when it comes to Chad Brown and the turf it would be foolish to look past one regardless of the success it’s shown to date. My Favorite Gift (2) appears to be the speed in this race and is a Tapit filly that has yet to experience a firm turf surface so if you find yourself wanting to play against the favorite this one is one that should be considered.
Take Charge Paula (6) is a graded stakes winner and 5 of 7 for her career. Last out she won by open lengths in the grade 3 Forward Gal and Paco Lopez who has ridden this Take Charge Indy filly in all races but 1 will look to make it 4 straight in the winners circle. Cache (7) is a filly out of Distorted Humor that won at first asking for a barn that hasn’t started many but when they have they are having success as Mark Hennig is 31% on the meet. The sprint/route angle does not supply positive reinforcement for this pick however I look more at this stat if there is a move from 1 to 2 turns which at Gulfstream Park it is not the case. Fly So High (8) will be making her debut in stakes competition however has been running with high beyers the last two races breaking the maiden at Aqueduct followed by a 6 ½ length victory at the mile distance last out in an Optional Claimer on January 4th at Gulfstream and is a highly touted filly that was bought at the 2016 Keeneland September sale for $675,000.00
Croninthebarbarian (5) will be making his second start after a year long layoff and will be doing so cutting back in distance and hopefully getting a firm surface to run on where he has had prior success. Gaffalione retains the mount for George Weaver in this one. Laythatpistoldown (11) will have to deal with poor post position as the 1st turn comes up quick at this 7 ½ furlong distance but this one has been running in solid form for this level after a 10th place finish in the Claiming Crown Emerald and should be a contender that you’ll see coming from off the pace and making a big rush down the stretch. Creaky Cricket (8) is one that should be forwardly placed and has shown ok form and is dropping in for the claiming 16,000 tag after racing in stakes and claiming 35,000 the two prior.
Conquest Sandman (2) will be looking to make it 4 straight after winning in a stakes race last out. This 5 year old gelding out of Scat Daddy is a front runner that will look to try and wire this field while maintaining the mount of Jose Lezcano. March (5) will look to get back on the right track after finishing 8th in the grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf back on Februrary 10th. Prior to that March was victorious in an optional claimer also on the Gulfstream Park turf. Gaffalione will retain the mount for this one. Galleon Mast (1) is a Florida bred that was last seen winning the Sunshine Million state bred turf race. David Fawkes will turn to Saez for the mount in this one and these two have won 25% of the time in 40 mounts from 2017-18.
Personal Time (1) finished a close 2nd last out and has shown the best race to date of this group looking to break their maiden. Shug has good numbers with 31-60 day layoffs (21%), routes (20%) and maiden special weights (16%) and this one has been training well with 2 bullet workouts out of his last 3. Country Squire (2) will be looking to improve 2nd time at the distance and has the connections of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez for the first time. Rare Form (6) will be making his championship meet debut for the Dale Romans barn and although Romans is 18% on the meet the combination of Romans and Albarado this meet hasn’t found much success as Albarado has found the winners circle once this meet.
Eight Town (2) made his first attempt at graded stakes company last out and perhaps the 1 mile distance was too much as he finished 8th out of 9 runners. The move back to a spring may put this one in prime position to get back into the winners circle. Also you have to be encouraged with Eclipse award winner Jose Ortiz taking the mount here. Favorable Outcome (6) comes out of the Chad Brown Barn and was last seen in a grade one out at Santa Anita. This 4 year old colt out of Flatter does have a grade 2 victory here in the 2017 Swale stakes has consistently fired on his career on the dirt track. Classic Rock (4) will look to build off the win first off over a 5 month layoff and will retain the services of Luis Saez and has been training well in preparation for this race.
Bernay (7) will be making his second start in the states for trainer Chad Brown and this one has been working well down at Palm Meadows and will look to take a big step up at a morning line of 10-1 with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. Sadler’s Joy (1) is a grade one winner on the turf and has a victory here at Gulfstream in the Pan American back in April of 2017 and will be retaining Julien Leparoux and will be making his first start after the Breeder’s Cup Turf 4th place finish. Oscar Nominated (12) won a grade 3 last time out with Jose Ortiz in the irons and will look to build off that victory for the Michael Maker barn and owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey.
The feature of the day is the Grade 2 Hopeful set for 1 1/16 miles and the winner will not only get their share of the $400,000 purse but will also get 50 points towards qualification for the Kentucky Derby. Good Magic (6) was last seen pulling off the upset over heavily touted Bolt D’ Oro in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenille. This is the first start of the year for this Kentucky Derby hopeful and Chad Brown has talked about how well this one has been working in the mornings. Strike Power (4) has been impressive in two open length victories and is the main threat to Good Magic in this one. He will need to answer the 2 turn question in this one and watching his most recent work showed this Speightstown colt rating against an optional claiming horse and all systems point to this one being ready to fire on Saturday. Storm Runner (5) will look to go 2 for 2 at this distance at Gulfstream Park and will be acquiring the services of Joel Rosario for this one.
|50¢ Race 1 Pick 5 $45|
|50¢ Race 2 Pick 4 $30|
|50¢ Race 7 Pick 4 $18|
|50¢ Race 10 Late Pick 5 $36|
|50¢ Race 11 Late Pick 4 $18|
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