Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, January 5, 2019
6 – PRINCESS KNOLL (5/2) – Super card at Gulfstream today with plenty of opportunities to make money along the way! The first is a bit wide open, so I suggest spreading in your multi race wagers. The top choice ran a good 2nd last time and has won before at the level. Slightest of calls.
8 – SONG OF MELODY (2/1) – Turns back from a pair of solid efforts at a mile and gets Saez. She goes first off the claim where she was well meant from a top barn to an ice cold barn! Beware of a short price after a tough effort and now in a race where she’ll most likely have to come from off the pace.
1 – TORMENTA de ORO (30/1) – Speed from the rail in these cheap sprints can be so dangerous. 7yo has faced better sprinting longer and is 3-5 in the money at 6 furlongs. Blitzed a 34.3 workout the other day. If you need a bomb to start things off, here you go!
6 – 8 – 1 – 4
5 – SEISMIC JOLT (6/1) – $800k purchase dominated Florida breds when trying the dirt last time. Speed & pace figures are improving and another move forward is expected.
3 – MERCUSIO (7/2) – 2nd in a stake at Tampa last time when favored. The track was off that day and he came back to work a bullet for this. Saez rides and he figures to contend for the win.
6 – FINAL JEOPARDY (5/2) – Visually impressive from off the pace in his maiden score, but not sure of the quality he faced. The numbers did not come back as strong as you would think after watching. Steps up and will get tested for class.
5 – 3 – 6 – 1
3 – THROW DOWN (6/1) – The son of Into Mischief had to have gotten plenty out of that opening route on the turf where he raced wide throughout. Shug appears to have tightened the screws with plenty of time and a series of solid works since.
1 – LAUGHING BOBBY (9/2) – Another who should benefit from his opener and time in between starts. Draws the rail and Landeros returns.
6 – GLOBAL CAMPAIGN (7/5) – The workouts are flawless for this son of Curlin, so it’d be no surprise to see him win here. His sale price was almost $100k below average so read into that what you want. I prefer the horses with experience that have been freshened and offer better value.
3 – 1 – 6 – 4
6 – CAROLINE LOIS (7/2) – I’m against the TAP 1st time starter (7) right off the bat. He simply doesn’t have good numbers with 3 year-olds making their debut in maiden claimers. Romans sends out this daughter of Paynter after a pair of efforts where she showed improvement. The numbers back that up. He’s given her some time and Albarado retains the mount. All signs point to another step forward.
4 – HOT FUDGE HONEY (6/1) – This daughter of Orb has finished 2nd at the level and makes her 2nd start off a layoff after gaining some confidence against lesser. Her numbers are ok and her work was good for this.
2 – CHIC AND SEXY (20/1) – She has plenty of speed, drops in class and draws the rail. That’s all you need to know for the price!
6 – 4 – 2 – 5
2 – BOXWOOD (5/2) – Broke her maiden at KD for $134k at 6 ½ furlongs and won going 2 turns on a race taken off the turf last time in what was literally a public workout. Speaking of workouts, she tossed a 36.3 with the dogs up in preparation for this. Looks very strong here.
6 – FORTUNATE GIRL (9/2) – Was no match for the top choice in that maiden affair at KD. Since then she’s shown improvement and ran a game 2nd last time in a minor stake last time. A pair of solid works for Casse coming into this.
1 – PIVOTTINA (FR) (2/1) – Finished 3rd last time in the Jimmy Durante at Dmr and this will be her 3rd start since coming stateside. She closed off a fast pace in her debut but last time the pace was average, but she didn’t show that strong of a kick. The GP turf course is fair, but I need to see stronger late pace numbers from closers on the turf…especially at a short price.
2 – 6 – 1 – 4
1 – COULD BE (12/1) – 4–11 on the lawn with 3 of those wins coming here at Gulfstream. Freshened up and drops in class. I’d be pleasantly surprised if we get anything close to that morning line.
2 – ERASOMO’S DREAM (4/1) – 1st off the claim for Saffie Joseph who runs him right back at $16k. He’s beaten better and is 12 – 19 on the turf.
7 – BIRD HUMOR (6/1) – Drops to his lowest level after showing good speed at Tampa. Goes 2nd off a layoff with a bullet work coming in.
1 – 2 – 8 – 7
3 – FANCY DRESS PARTY (9/5) – $280k daughter of Munnings is a perfect 2 for 2, although both efforts came over sloppy tracks. Kentucky bred did beat open company and large fields. She turned in a bullet over a fast track in preparation. Her numbers are strong and she’s a candidate to move forward. One to think about if singling in your multi race wagers.
1 – BRUNETTE PRINCESS (9/2) – Daughter of Bodemeister tries stakes competition after breaking her maiden against Florida breds. Saez opted for the 3, but Johnny V takes the mount.
8 – MIDTOWN ROSE (7/2) – Comes off an impressive win and we’ll see if she can run back to that effort on relatively short rest. Her only bad race came over the turf in a stake.
3 – 1 – 8 – 5
4 – GIO DUDE (15/1) – Son of Gio Ponti broke his maiden for $50k and has been competitive when entered for $62500 and last time against allowance company. Posted his best number off a break and drops to NW2L here. Not sure who comes up with these morning lines, but hopefully we get some kind of a price.
3 – THEMANBEHINDTHEMAN (7/2) – Fits at this level and gets the services of Castellano to who’ll try to get this son of Quality Road to finish like he did when breaking his maiden. That may mean sending him to the front, which is never a bad thing.
5 – GET THE FACTS (10/1) – Takes a big drop here as well for new connections. Has shown a nice closing kick and comes in fresh with a good work tab. Worth considering at anything near that line.
4 – 3 – 5 – 9
3 – MOON COLONY (8/1) – $400k son of Uncle Moe is still learning but Geroux was able to settle him last time before moving between rivals. He’s a candidate to move forward off that effort for Casse.
6 – BOURBON IN MAY (10/1) – Tough choice between the top 2. There’s a possibility this one could bounce slightly off that maiden win, so I’ll make the son of More Than Ready my 2ndchoice.
9 – HENLEY’S JOY (3/5) – Kitten’s Joy offspring has a pair of stakes wins, the last being an easy score here in the Pulpit. The numbers are good, but they don’t stand out. He’s going to get tested and I’m not willing to take a short price.
3 – 6 – 9 – 5
4 – CODE OF HONOR (7/5) – Shug has taken his time with this guy since that runner up effort in the Champagne. The one turn mile seems like the right spot. Johnny V is back and there should be no excuses here.
6 – MIHOS (7/2) – Son of Cairo Prince looks like the main threat. Won geared down for Jimmy Jerkins in breaking his maiden while earning a strong number. Stretches out and steps up and should get a perfect stalking trip outside the favorite.
1 – GARTER AND TIE (6/1) – From the rail, Tyler G should be able to establish a forward position. Don’t think he’s quite as good as the top 2, but he would be one to consider underneath based on his pace figures.
4 – 6 – 1 – 5
1 – FIERY TALE (15/1) – Bred to be good on the turf (Tale of Ekati out of a Perfect Soul mare). He’s raced competitively in his 3 starts over the main track against top quality. Given time off, cuts back in distance and the works over the turf are excellent. Nice way to close out the card!
5 – WILD ONE FOREVER (9/2) – Wesley Ward is very good with these firsters on the lawn. Bred to be good early, the son of City Zip adds lasix off a strong work tab and should fire at first asking.
6 – JEROME AVENUE (20/1) – Impeccable breeding on this guy (Speightstown out of an Unbridled’s Song mare). Strong work tab and Kimmel, adds lasix and Johnny V is aboard. Lots to like!
1 – 5 – 6 – 12
BEST OF LUCK!