Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, January 12, 2019
All selections for FAST & FIRM. Follow me on Twitter for the latest updates after scratches.)
2 – BE A HERO (4/1) – Comes off a pair of solid numbers and a forward move is quite possible. 9yo has finished in the money 24 times in only 38 races and continues to do it well for Navarro. Even turned in a bullet the other day. (Possible single to start your Pick 5)
8 – NORTHERN (6/1) – Romped by over 9 lengths when dropped to the bottom level and figures to be on or near the lead here.
7 – DASH OF DAZZLE (3/1) – Another 9yo who’s at the top of his game as he looks for his 5th win in a row, all for different trainers!
2 – 8 – 7 – 5
7 – NECESSARY (6/1) – Belsoeur is 19% 1st off the claim and enters this one right back at the same level he claimed her. She fits and her numbers are strong.
10 – OUR CLOSURE (9/2) – Dibona is 20% 1st off the claim and this one comes right back at the same price as well. She tends to launch from a little farther back and she’ll need to be cleverly ridden by Castellano.
11 – REILTIN OIR (12/1) – Ran a nice 2nd last time when facing winners for the 1st time. Difficult post but the price might create value.
7 – 10 – 11 – 3
4 – FIRM (EVEN) – Ran an even 4th in debut for Pletcher against Maiden Specials at Tampa and is in for a tag here. TAP is 37% with 2nd time starters that are 4-1 or less. No doubt, this guy will be a short price with Saez up.
7 – WINK AND A NOD (6/1) – Improved in his 2nd start and the price is cut in half today. Figures to show speed and if there’s an upset, this son of Gone Astray is a likely candidate.
6 – PERFECT BEAM (15/1) – Beaten only 3 lengths last time going 2 turns on the turf. Drops back down and figures to do his best running late.
4 – 7 – 6 – 2
6 – MOONWALKER (4/1) – 8yo should find these much easier as he makes his 3rd start off a layoff and is in for a tag. Looking to get the stable its 1st win and build confidence with a drop and pop move.
3 – KANTHARO’S IMAGE (5/1) – Here’s another one looking for improvement on the class drop. If the pace is hot (as it tends to be in these turf sprints), he’ll be one of the late players. Breezed a bullet the other day and Landeros gets the call.
2 – CALL WIL (3/1) – Comes in fresh for strong connections and does his best running from just off the pace. One that you should include in your multi race wagers.
6 – 3 – 2 – 5
8 – BOBBY LEE (7/5) – Daughter of Shanghai Bobby is well spotted in this $12500 claimer after breaking her maiden at CD. Romans is having a nice meet and he has a solid favorite here.
6 – AWESOME HILLS (8/1) – Broke her maiden for $25k and is another who fits nicely at this level.
4 – SHE’S UNBRIDLED (10/1) – Has some speed and comes in fresh for a trainer with 3 wins from just 8 starters last year.
8 – 6 – 4 – 2
3 – AMANECER (8/1) – There’s a few horses in here that have run dramatically strong numbers in their last race. I prefer those that have done so after some time off and are not being rushed back afterwards. This 5yo son of Munnings fits the bill. Landeros is on the 7 however, but Saez gets the call and confirms my confidence.
1 – TREV (5/2) – Speed from the rail is so dangerous at GP especially when you have Paco as your pilot. Comes in fresh with some nice works and will be the one to catch.
8 – OVER SENSUAL (7/2) – Romped when claimed last time and shortens up for Navarro. From an outside post he can stalk and hope someone goes with Trev early.
3 – 1 – 8 – 7
2 – TOSCANA (15/1) – $390K Daughter of Speightstown may be the one to catch from an inside draw. Morning works are excellent. Let’s hope we get a bit of a price.
10 – LAVISH (9/5) – Came up inches short in her debut when heavily favored back in July. $320k purchase should benefit from that opener plus some time off but she’s saddled with a tough post. She’ll have to be awfully good from out there against some other high-priced fillies.
8 – LADY KATE (12/1) – $485k daughter of Bernardini out of a Street Cry mare would be no surprise with her pedigree and work tab.
2 – 10 – 8 – 3
4 – AMANDREA (5/1) – Daughter of Paynter took a nice step forward in her 2nd start when trying the turf. She overcame a difficult post as Tyler G. was able to save some ground and she posted a strong late pace figure. Her works since tell me she’s ready to take another step and I love her in this spot.
3 – CAN’T BUY ME LOVE (6/1) – Impeccable turf breeding (War Front out of a Galileo mare). Graham is capable of having them ready at first asking and I’m looking for this gal to run big.
7 – HIDDEN FACTS (3/1) – Heartbreaking loss last time but that’s 4 straight 2nd place finishes for this daughter of The Factor. Her numbers continue to improve so I would include her in your multis.
4 – 3 – 7 – 1
4 – DOCTOR MOUNTY (10/1) – Has a win and a 2nd in 2 tries at a mile and I think this distance hits him right between the eyes. His numbers suggest a likely move forward and he put in 2 sharp works for Shug. Castellano gets the call. Let’s hope we get a price.
6 – HEART TO HEART (4/5) – The only reason I’ll consider him is the apparent lack of other speed. Leparoux is very good at walking the dog on the front end. Has posted some very fast works off the layoff.
2 – WHITE FLAG (7/2) – Appears better at closing in sprints where the pace is normally quick. Aside from Heart To Heart, there doesn’t appear to be much speed in here, so he’ll need more of an even effort.
4 – 6 – 2 – 1
1 – CAMGO (3/1) – Bred to be fast early on, this son of The Factor ran a very nice race in his debut at Prx back in Sep. He’s been given time and has put in some solid works for Navarro. Look for Jaramillo to send this guy from the rail where he’ll have every chance.
6 – GEOSCIENCE (5/1) – Another who should benefit from his opener. Turned in a nice breeze for this and gets in light.
8 – NO RULES (6/1) – Not enamored with any firsters here, but they paid more than double for this son of Union Rags ($330k) so I’ll use him defensively. Nothing special in the a.m. and he figures to need a race or two.
1 – 6 – 8 – 10
3 – BOMBSHELL (6/1) – 6yo mare looks for her 4th win in her last 5 starts as she tries the Gulfstream turf for the first time. Connections really hoping to pad her credentials with a stakes win, and she should get a great trip from a nice draw. Her numbers are strong and Saez gets the call.
1 – BELLAVAIS (7/2) – 5yo daughter of Tapit returned after 11 months on the bench with a strong allowance win followed by a bounce numbers-wise in the My Charmer. From the rail she figures to have good position and Castellano returns for Pletcher.
5 – ROSE TREE (20/1) – Her only turf race came in the Tropical Park Oaks here in 2017 where she encountered trouble but was beaten less than 4 lengths. Late running gal comes off a sharp allowance win and a pair of strong works. Could surprise at a price!
3 – 1 – 5 – 7
9 – BLUE COLLAR (7/2) – This 5yo daughter of Majestic Warrior was simply too much for the competition when entered for a tag last time. She’s eligible for a NW3X and this is a NW1X optional claimer, so she’ll run for the tag. Probably enjoys the softer going, but she’s run faster than anyone else recently and will take some beating. A possible single to end the day.
4 – LUCKY SONG (8/1) – Returned from a layoff with a strong effort in a race taken off the turf in a 2nd level allowance. She should be forwardly placed which is never a bad thing at GP and I think she can pair up that effort.
2 – WAR CABINET (5/1) – Daughter of War Front returns to the turf after a failed effort in the G3 Comely. She’s bred to run all day on the grass and there’s plenty of upside here.
9 – 4 – 2 – 8
Early Pick 5
Race 1) 2 / 184.108.40.206 / 4.7 / 220.127.116.11.7 / 8
Late Pick 5
Race 8) 18.104.22.168.7 / 4.6 / 1.6.8 / 22.214.171.124 / 9
BEST OF LUCK!