Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, February 17, 2018
Gulfstream has tons of action this Saturday: they’ve got 12 races on the card, 11 of which are starter stakes races! First post time is scheduled for (approximately) 12:00 PM EST.
We’re happy to have Shane Claypool (@SaratogaShaneR) providing free picks & analysis of all 12 races! Based at Canterbury Park, Shane is a very sharp handicapper, and we’ll be featuring his picks & analysis of Gulfstream Saturdays throughout the championship meet! Be sure to give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along out there!
It’s Saturday and that means another big card for the championship meet at Gulfstream Park. Starter Stakes Day will consist of a 12 race card with a whopping 11 stakes races. Last week was the roughest one of the meet so far, finding the winners circle once and dropping the ROI from .89 to .83 cents so we have some work to do to make it up this week. The current statistics for the Saturday Gulfstream write ups for Danonymous Racing are below.
|Top Selection||29 of 115 or 25.2%|
|ROI (based on $2 win wager for top selection)||0.830|
|Shot of the Day||5 for 10 or 50%|
The day and early pick 5 starts out with the 6 furlong Trust Buster for 4 year old and up horses that have raced for a claiming price of $12,500 or less. Mr. Joshua (1) has been in good form breaking his maiden in the last race of his 5 year old campaign and followed that up with a claiming $30,000 victory by open lengths next out. He’ll be cutting back in distance and will be gaining the services of Jose Ortiz for this one. Blings Express (4) last ran on opening day of the meet finishing 2nd in the Claiming Crown Express stakes. Tyler Gaffalione takes the mount on this 9 year old gelding who has shown a past history of firing at first asking off of a layoff. Fire Mission (7) comes out of the Jorge Navarro barn which is well known for grabbing claimers and getting more out of them then where they were at. Last out this gelding was in a little over his head going in the grade 3 Mr. Prospector and prior to that had won 4 straight in the optional claimer ranks between Monmouth Park and Gulfstream Park West.
We’ll stay on the main track for a starter optional claimer to be run at 7 furlongs. Toni Ann’s Miracle (4) has been competitive in nearly every career start and will look at getting back into the winners circle after losing by a head last out in a 6 furlong $75,000 optional claimer and a performance like that with the added distance will hopefully lead to the 4th trip to the winners circle for this one. Dance Rhythms (2) will be coming out of the Dale Romans barn and will have Luis Saez in the irons and that combination is always dangerous with a 30% win rate at Gulfstream Park from 2017-18. Oola Gal (7) is a lightly raced filly out of Quality Road who will look to improve with the extra furlong distance.
The Ladybird stakes will feature 8 fillies age 4 or older going 7 furlongs on the main track. Arcelor (1) will be looking to make it 3 in a row while making her first start in stakes company. Luis Saez has been in the irons for the two victories and with the for this one has been running will loom a major threat from the inside post. Chella (7) is a Ontario bred mare who has done a lot of winning as she’s seen the winners circle 25 times in 40 career starts. She is 5 for 9 at this distance and is also looking to make it 3 in a row while making her first career start at Gulfstream Park after running previously at Tampa Bay Downs. Daddy’s Memory (4) will be coming in after a layoff running last out at the end of November at Churchill Downs and we’ve seen in this meet the ability of Kentucky shippers to run well in the sunshine state.
We’ll cutback a half furlong but stay on the main track for the Rail Splitter stakes for horses 4 years old and up. We’ll find my SHOT OF THE DAY here in Cautious Giant (3). This 7 year old gelding out of Giant’s Causeway will be making his 3rd start of the championship meet and has been victorious in his previous 2 and last 3 overall including a stakes victory opening day. The jockey change would be a red flag but Jaramillo doesn’t appear to be riding at all on the Gulfstream card and in exchange you get the leading jockey of the meet in Luis Saez and with a cutback should be a solid contender for this one. Twenty and Four (1) was victorious last out at the optional claimer 25k level winning by open lengths and seems to be running in the best form of his career however will need to take a step up to find the winners circle in this one. Mo Cash (9) is the morning line favorite and will be a threat having been a graded stakes placed horse back in July at Gulfstream Park along with a stakes victory 2 back at Tampa Bay Downs.
The middle pick 4 of the card is also our first turf race of the day in the form of the 7 ½ furlong Mrs. Presidentress. Proud O’Paddy (2) is a 3 year old filly out of Paddy O’Prado who made her career debut at the maiden claiming $20,000 level where she ran a close 2nd at 5 furlongs. The connections thought enough of her to go up the class ladder to $35,000 and in addition went to the 2 turn mile distance where she was victorious but also claimed away. The connections are only 5% first claim but this one has shown enough in her 2 career starts to warrant a shot in stakes company and although the 1st claim number is not ideal the Jane Cibelli barn is firing at a respectable 17% in this meet. Mahvelous Kitten (7) is another filly that will be running for a new barn for the first time as she was claimed in her maiden victory for $20,000 from the Ken and Sarah Ramsey Mike Maker connections and will be running for Midwest Thoroughbreds and Armando De la cerda who is 22% at this meet in 67 starts and is 28% 1st claim. Beach Waltz (1) has been running against better competition having scored a victory in maiden special weight company as well as a close 2nd last out in the optional claimer 50k level and will have the Maker connections with Jose Ortiz in the irons for the same barn that lost Mahvelous Kitten.
The American Fabius is set to be run at 7 furlongs here in race 6. Titochip (9) will be looking to make it 3 straight after winning last out at this distance in an optional claimer 50k race as the favorite. The outside draw is not ideal but Saez has been good at making the best with his mounts and will look to steer this one into a position to be victorious. Take Your Place (1) scored an impressive maiden victory last out and was claimed by a barn that is 36% firs time off the claim and although it is always difficult to jump to running with winners for the first time perhaps this barn can improve this one even further and look to spring off the upset at a morning line of 8-1. Mucho Prospect (5) is a 3 time winner who will be retaining the mount of Edgar Zayas who has ridden this colt ever race of his career. The Leo Azpurua Jr. stable is a very respectable 20% on the meet in 20 starts.
The pick 6 starts with the 1 1/16 mile turf Old Man Eloquent starter stakes. Special Ops (4) you can excuse the last race at Fairgrounds and say that the soft turf may not of been to his liking and if you draw a line through that you have a horse that won the Claiming Crown Emerald 2 back so you know he’s had success at this track. Jose Ortiz comes back after winning at Kentucky Downs last time out with this 7 year old gelding out of Big Brown. Slim Shadey (8) will be invading from the New York circuit having won last out in a optional claimer at Aqueduct back in November. This 10 year old gelding has over $1,000,000 in career earnings and will is still showing to be in great form. Spring Up (3) was last seen in the Sunshine Millions Turf where he ran an ok race but finished off the board however this one does stay pretty consistent and with a little improvement could sneak up on some with a big time race.
The Rough And Ready will quick off the late pick 5 and will be run at 1 mile on the dirt. Rhythm Park (10) has run two consecutive 5th place finishes in his two starts of the championship meet but the Maker barn is 20% going from the sprint to a route and this horse has a good record at this distance winning 7 of 13 career efforts at a mile. Maker will also add blinkers to this one and without Cautious Giant in this field will hopefully have a better showing then what has been shown so far this meet. Solve (7) will be a first off the claim for the Jorge Navarro barn after winning last out at the $12,500 claiming level however has hit the money in stakes race taking 3rd opening day in the Claiming Crown Iron Horse. Quenane (9) is coming back to the 1 mile distance where he has won his last two and it’s a positive that Luis Saez retains the mount.
The late pick 4 begins with a 7 ½ turf starter stakes in the Sage of Monticello for 3 year old fillies. Cash Call Kitten (11) won at first asking in a maiden $20,000 stakes race from an outside post at a mile by 5 ¼ furlongs. The outside post is always troubling at this 7 ½ furlong distance but it is a strong positive that the connections thought to enter this one in a stakes race for a 2nd career start and with the reigning eclipse award winning jockey in Jose Ortiz staying in the irons you have to be encouraged that this one can improve at 2nd asking. Forever Taken (10) won last out at this distance from the 9 post for the Antonio Sano barn and although Jose Ortiz elects to ride Cash Call Kitten you do end up getting the services of Saez in his place. Seattle Treasure (7) will be running for the first time with his new connections but does retain the services of Irad Ortiz who took the mount with the previous connections which is a positive.
The Mary Todd starter stakes will be run at 1 1/16 miles on the turf course. Peru (9) is another horse out of the Maker barn that looks live and will be getting the services of Jose Ortiz for the first time. This horse has had a case of running 2nd finishing in that spot in her last 3 however the hope is with the services of Ortiz this one can get back into the winner’s circle for the first time with these connections. Starship Jubilee (8) will look to make it win number 2 and is a graded stakes winner who will be a major threat in this one. Gianna’s Dream (4) will be coming from graded stakes company where she ran 2nd two races back but did run 6th last out however that was on a good turf surface so taking that race out the form fits with this group.
The 1 1/16 mile Old Hickory is for 4 year olds and up. Flowers for Lisa (2) ran 2nd last out in an optional claimer but will be getting Paco Lopez back and last time he took the mount they were victorious in the Claiming Crown Jewel and with Lopez back in the irons along with company that have all been in the claiming ranks will be a combination to get this one back in the winners circle. Bold Envoy (5) comes out of the Todd Pletcher barn and will be making the stretch out to a route for the first time in his career. The barn is 27% with the sprint/route and 26% with the 2 sprints/route so we’ll look to see if this 4 year old gelding out of Indian Express will excel with the added distance. Jay’s Way (8) has been running well for the De la cerda barn wining his last 2 including a stakes race last out at 1 1/8 miles so cutting back in distance along with getting Saez in the irons will garner attention for bettors and should come into this one the post time favorite.
The nightcap will be the 1 mile Little Magician starter stakes that will be run on the turf. Racings My Game (10) will be stretching out and making his first start off the claim for the Jorge Navarro barn. Last out was a close 2nd place finish losing by ¾ of a length. This one will look to get into the lead and with Navarro training will hopefully have the stamina to hold off all comers. Famous Fact (12) has won his last 2 races at the 7 ½ furlong distance and will look to continue that winning streak despite the post position. Creaky Cricket (11) has been in an alright form but will need to improve off that form in order to pull off an upset in this one.
|50¢ Race 1 Pick 5 $36|
|50¢ Race 2 Pick 4 $36|
|50¢ Race 5 Pick 4 $20|
|50¢ Race 8 Late Pick 5 $60|
|50¢ Race 9 Late Pick 4 $27|
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