Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, February 10, 2018
There’s been packed Saturdays of racing at Gulfstream over the past two weeks, and this Saturday is no exception. They’ve got two stakes races, headlined by the Gulfstream Park Turf. First post time is 12:00 PM EST, with the feature scheduled to go off as race 9, at (roughly) 4:10 PM EST.
We’re happy to have Shane Claypool (@SaratogaShaneR) providing free picks & analysis of all 12 races! Based at Canterbury Park, Shane is a very sharp handicapper, and we’ll be featuring his picks & analysis of Gulfstream Saturdays throughout the championship meet! Be sure to give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck to everyone playing along out there!
Another week of the Championship meet in the books, and our first race with Derby points on the line going to the Todd Pletcher trained Audible. We have a 12-race card today, with 2 graded stakes races as a highlight. We were able to improve the ROI just a little bit last week, and the SHOT OF THE DAY, Strike Power, may be one we see in the Fountain Of Youth stakes. Let’s see if we can keep getting closer to that even ROI this week.
|Top Selection||28 of 103 or 27.2%|
|ROI (based on $2 win wager for top selection)||0.90|
|Shot of the Day||5 for 9 or 55.6%|
The day starts with a 7 ½ furlong turf sprint for fillies and mares that have never won two races and will be running for a claiming price of $16,000. We will be starting the card with my SHOT OF THE DAY in Barbados Kitten (7). This Kitten’s Joy mare will be making her 4th start of the championship meet and has been on the board in all 3 including breaking her maiden last out by 3 ¾ lengths. She appears to have the best form and will have top jockey for the meet Luis Saez on board. Classic Act (6) showed speed last time out at this distance and will look to improve 2nd time against winning company for the Alan Benson barn and will look to pressure Barbados Kitten from the onset in this one. Voices Only (2) could see an improvement form last out as the trip notes indicates “Trip over fallen foe” and looking at the replay shows this one had a troubled trip with a lack of running room prior to 3 horses being taken out of the race by one horse clipping heels so the last out effort is one that can probably be crossed out and improvement warranted.
We move to the main track for the first time in the day as we have a filly maiden claiming race for 3 year olds at 6 ½ furlongs for a claiming price of $12,500. Remington Rose (1) is a first time starter out of the Ralph Nicks barn and although I’m not a huge fan of first time starters this one is coming from a barn that does well in all the areas you look for including 1st start (21%), Debut Maiden Claimer (17%) and Maiden Claiming (21%) and that along with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons make this one a strong contender for winning at first asking. Little Miss May (4) is one of a few horses in this one that will be making the switch in surface from turf to the dirt. This filly has hit the board in 2 of her 4 career starts and has not been on the main track since her 1st career start. She has been showing some early speed and that is always welcomed with the short stretch run at Gulfstream Park. Tequila N Tacos (5) is another one that is coming from the turf and gains the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. for this one.
We remain on the main track for a claiming $16,000 for three years old fillies to be run at 7 furlongs. Golda (7) will be facing winners for the first time as winning as the favorite in a 5 ½ furlong maiden $16,000 race. In addition she was claimed in this race, and will be making her debut for the Peter Walder barn who wins at 22% 1st off the claim. She has shown speed in all 3 career starts, so look for her to try and draw clear and use the short stretch run to her advantage to win her 2nd straight start. Song of Melody (2) is running for a hot barn in Armando de la Cerda and retains Luis Saez in the irons. In addition, the barn is an incredible 32% with the surface switch from turf to dirt, so this 3 year old filly out of Flat Out may be a prime candidate to be successful in her return to the main track. Fast Track Kathern (4) will be shipping in from Kentucky for the Michael Maker barn after winning last out in a mile race at Turfway Park. Her 2nd start at Churchill shows she has a little talent on the main track and the Maker barn is 21% going from a route to sprint and will have Irad Ortiz in the iron.
The boys make their debut here in race 4 with a maiden $25,000 claiming race to be run at 6 furlongs. Honza (1) missed the break with as he tossed his head which resulted in him being last but he did show the ability to run on and the connections were encouraged enough to move him up a level from the maiden $16,00 to the maiden $25,000 so if you get some improvement for his 2nd career start and a better break from the gate this one could loom a huge threat. Tizpure (9) ships is another Kentucky shipper on the card who last ran in October at the Keeneland meet however the workouts at Palm Meadows are encouraging and Dale Romans has been heating up at the Championship Meet so this one with the services of Saez will be live. Chase Your Dreams (4) will be dropping to his lowest level to date after finishing on the board in a maiden $50,000 two starts back.
The middle pick 4 begins here with a 5 furlong turf maiden special weight for 3 year old’s. Stormy Action (7) is making his first start down in Florida after trying the tapeta surface last out at Woodbine. Roger Attfield has had success bringing these horses down from north of the border and will look to do so with this one first time out. The pedigree suggests taking to the turf so we’ll look to pull off an upset at a morning line of 8-1. Solid (10) has been knocking on the door having hit the board in 3 of his 4 career starts and will look to improve 2nd time on the Gulfstream Park turf while cutting back in distance to 1 turn. Giant Dilemma (6) is the only horse in this field that has ran a race at this track at the distance and will look to improve with that experience.
We come back to the main track for a 5 ½ furlong claiming $6,250 for horses 4 years old and up. Be a Hero (2) will be making his 2018 debut after finishing in 4th at the claiming $12,500 but you have to be impressed with his 4 wins out of 9 races in 2017 as well as a prior win at this level and a cutback in distance. Where’s That Cat (4) is one that has shown speed and could see improvement starting for the first time in the Gilberto Zerpa who is 33% at both 1st claim and on this meet. Journey’s End (5) is looking to win his second straight and will retain the services of Saez.
The pick 6 begins with a 1 1/16 mile maiden special weight for 3 year olds. Locomotion (3) will be coming from a sloppy track last out, and since that time has had 4 workouts including 3 bullet drills. Bill Mott adds blinkers to this one and gains the services of Irad Ortiz in the irons, so this 3 year old colt out of Street Sense could be primed for a big one, after having excuses the last two out, having to go 5 wide last out and having lack of room in the race 2 back. He Takes Charge (6) has finished ahead of my top choice in the last two and has the pedigree to win this one being a colt out of Tapit who has hit the board in his last two starts and could be knocking on the door. Country Squire (5) is a Todd Pletcher trainee that is making his 2nd career start and is coming off of a layoff. The connections thought enough to purchase this Stay Thirsty colt for $160,000 and you do get Saez aboard and at a 10-1 morning line you do not often get with these connections.
A 1 1/16 miles turf claimer for 4 year olds and up will begin the late pick 5. Robusto (10) will be moving back to the turf where he has run his best races and has experience going longer at this track on the surface. Saez gains the mount and will look to get this one in the winners circle for the Pletcher barn. Maryland Pride (3) ran a close 2nd last time out at the 7 ½ furlong distance. Perhaps a 2nd try at Gulfstream and a stretch out in distance will be the right combination. Cruz Diez (2)
The first of 2 graded stakes race starts the late pick 4. The Gulfstream Park Turf is a grade 1 event for 4 year olds and up and will go 1 1/8 miles. I took an upset in this one in a horse that has been knocking on the door at Gulfstream Park in One Go All Go (2). Last out, this 6 year old out of Fairbanks ran a Beyer of 100 in finishing 2nd in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale at a 1 1/16 mile on a turf course that was listed as good. The horse has been able to handle the distance and at 10-1 is worth a look if you don’t have any strong convictions in this one. March (6) won last out in an optional claimer at Gulfstream Park and will be keeping the services of Gaffalione. Heart to Heart (1) is a multiple graded stakes winner who was seen last out in the Fort Lauderdale, where he ran a disappointing 7th as the heavy favorite. He had a poor break from the gate, so tossing that last race out this one has the class to take this one.
The ladies take their turn at the 1 1/8 mile turf course in the grade 3 Suwannee River here in the 10th. One thing I’ve learned playing is if Chad Brown has 2 entries in a stakes you take the one that looks 2nd best on paper and that’s one of the reasons why I’m going with Dream Awhile (7) in this one. This 4 year old filly has the turf pedigree being out of War Front and last out was victorious in the Tropical Oaks last out on December 30th. That win was at 1 1/16 mile and it was tightly contested but the combination of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz have a tendency to under promise and over deliver in a situation like this and at a morning line of 10-1 this situation fits that bill. Dream Dancing (5) is a multiple graded stakes winner with the pedigree and solid connections from John Oxley to Mark Casse and Julien Leparoux. This 4 year old filly out of Tapit ran 2nd as the post time favorite in a grade 3 stakes on a good turf surface so with a firm surface this one will loom a major threat. Ultra Brat (6) was victorious over Dream Dancing last time out and is also a prior winner of the Tropical Oaks stakes winning it back in 2016 and has been lightly raced since then but Graham Motion has this one running the best in her career coming into this one.
We stay on the turf for a 1 1/16 mile allowance optional claimer for this one. Year of the Kitten (3) is a Kitten’s Joy colt who won at first asking at Churhill Downs on a yielding course and is owned by the breeders Ken and Sarah Ramsey, with Michael Maker training, who has been heating up and is now at a 20% win rate for the meet. He’s Bankable (2) comes out of the Mark Casse barn and won last out at the mile distance at first try on the turf course at Gulfstream Park. The added distance doesn’t appear to be an issue given the pedigree and so this one will be live on the tote board. Mojovation (5) is a highly regarded colt out of Quality Road that won at first asking back at the Saratoga meet and was impressive enough the connections tried him in the grade 1 Hopeful but since then it seems like the Pletcher barn has been trying to figure out the right place for this one so perhaps this level and the turf will prove to be it in addition perhaps the rider change to Javier Castellano will get this one to improve.
A $16,000 claimer for 4 year olds at 1 1/16 miles on the turf will close out the card. Laythatpistoldown (8) won last time out at this level and distance and will keep the connections he had last time out and will loom a big threat in this one. Donation (4) will be running for the first time in the Peter Walder barn and he is 22% with this angle. They add blinkers, gain the services of Castellano, and the Looch Racing Stables has had some success this meet claiming horses and getting improvement at first asking so we’ll hope this one can pull off an upset at our morning line of 10-1. Sportscaster (12) will have a less than ideal post position to deal with breaking form the 12 post, but he did show speed last time out and if he can do that and perhaps clear the field and get to the rail before the turn the post position will be a moot point. If he is able to do this, then this 7 year old out of Harlan’s Holiday owned and trained by Dale Romans will be a big time threat.
|50¢ Race 1 Pick 5 $36|
|50¢ Race 2 Pick 4 $24|
|50¢ Race 5 Pick 4 $22.50|
|50¢ Race 8 Late Pick 5 $36|
|50¢ Race 8 Late Pick 4 $30|
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