Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, December 8, 2018
8 – PAULA ANDREA (4/1) – Improving daughter of Maclean’s Music (Distorted Humor) was ultra impressive in breaking her maiden last time at GPW. She’s been working smartly since and gets the services of Irad Ortiz. Draws ideally from post 8 where she can stalk the pace. I do like this gal quite a bit!
1 – IVA (6/1) – Conservatively placed by Ward in her 2 starts, this daughter of Scat Daddy out of an Empire Maker mare steps up off a pair of winning efforts and improving numbers. Draws the rail & gets Johnny V. Lots to like.
5 – CALINAS SONG (9/2) – Well bred daughter by Godolphin has worked sharply following her maiden win & gets the services of Saez for this. It’s possible she may be a little short here, but would be no surprise.
8 – 1 – 5
7 – CLASSIC FIT (5/1) – By Bernardini & bred by Godolphin, this 2 yo tries the 1 turn mile for trainer Michael Stidham. He draws the perfect stalking post and appears ready to take a step forward at a solid price.
3 – SWEET DIANE (3/1) – Gets a class test here and also tries the 1 turn mile for Stidham. Has some speed but looks like he’ll stalk in this spot with Castellano up.
4 – BELLA CIAO (5/2) – Ran well in the Gr1 Spinaway at Sar then was overmatched in the Gr1 Alcibiades at Kee going 2 turns. Seems like the 1 turn mile is as far as this one wants to go. The daughter of Flatter gets Irad Ortiz and the 5/2 line seems a bit generous. Enough questions for me to not take a low price.
7 – 3 – 4
7 – ZENDEN (4/1) – There’s enough early pace projected here to put him on top. This son of Fed Biz gets a perfect stalking post and is Jaramillo’s choice over the 6. Would expect him to get even better the farther he goes!
1 – COMBINATION (5/2) – Impressive in his debut & has trained forwardly since. From the rail, Paco figures to send, but he’s likely to have company. I do think he has the ability to carry his speed but with early pressure, and the way the track has been favoring closers so far, I think he’s vulnerable late.
6 – JACKSON (3/1) – Did win a Fla stake going 6 1/2 last time, but looked to be getting a bit leg weary late. The 6 furlongs should be perfect. Jaramillo opted for the 7, but Saez gets the mount and should get a nice stalking trip. Would be no surprise.
7 – 1 – 6 – 5
5 – GARTER AND TIE (8/5) – Late runner at times leaves himself too much to do, but gets class relief here and a favorable pace scenario for Nicks and Tyler G.
3 – UNION’S DESTINY (8/1) – This son of Union Rags has speed and showed the ability to rate when taken back and off the rail in winning his maiden last time. I will consider a win bet at that morning line.
7 – SOUPER JACKPOT (3/1) – We’ll see how far this son of Ghostzapper can stretch his speed. Showed plenty of heart in breaking his maiden and now gets the services of Irad Ortiz for Mark Casse on the stretch out.
5 – 3 – 7
9 – LOUDER THAN BOMBS (6/1) – Nice timed ride here 2 back in the Armed Forces. Returns to the turf with Castellano aboard and should again be rolling late. Offers a square price!
2 – HENLEY’S JOY (5/2) – Ran a winning race 2 back in the Bourbon before showing little affection for the soft going in the BC Juv Turf. A deserving choice but a very competitive group, so I won’t take too low of a price.
6 – FARAWAY KITTEN (8/1) – Steps up after a good effort to close ground over very soft turf at Kee in a NW2. Had trouble the time before at KD, so she gets a class test here for Maker and Jose Ortiz but is worth a look at the price.
9 – 2 – 6 – 1
4 – A BIT SPECIAL (GB) (3/1) – Huge late pace numbers as she’s shown a tremendous turn of foot in all 3 of her starts. Plenty of talent and upside! Looking forward to watching this one!
3 – RED ROUNDER (6/1) – Her speed makes her dangerous as she could be allowed to set her own fractions. Gets a class test here, but worth a play at closer to 10/1.
2 – AUNT HATTIE (IRE) (9/2) – Sat just off quick fractions for the conditions in her opener & finished up nicely. She’s trained forwardly since for Mott & Saez gets the call.
5 – VOW TO RECOVER (12/1) – Fl bred closed into slow fractions last time and is one to consider underneath at a price.
4 – 3 – 2 – 5
2 – MISHEGAS (4/1) – Ky bred has experience here and has worked well for this after 2 impressive efforts. Always dicey when picking a closer and these distance races can be merry-go-rounds, but that last work has me thinking he’ll be sharp here for Irad Ortiz & Jose Velez.
6 – CALIFORNIA MUSIC (9/5) Would expect Saez to take this Ky bred to the front where he can control things. Has shown the ability to carry speed over a distance and looks like the one they’ll have to run down late.
1 – GOING STRONG (10/1) – Was no match for Mishegas last time, but adds blinkers and from the rail, should establish position and is usable underneath.
2 – 6 – 1 – 7
2 – REGALADA (8/1) – 3 yo filly has won 6 of 8 including a nice prep for this by top conditioner Jose Arroyo. Unlikely you’ll get 8/1 with Jose Ortiz, but anything close to that would be value.
3 – KUTZAMALA (MEX) (7/2) – Has won 8 of 10 showing the ability to finish strongly. Gets Irad Ortiz and will be very hard to hold off.
4 – ETRUSKA (MEX) (5/1) – Would need to take a step forward here but that last effort gives reason for hope.
2 – 3 – 4
8 – TATI (MEX) (5/1) – One of 3 fillies in the race. It’s doubtful Irad can make the 110 lbs., but she has flashed ability and put it all together last time. Nice work over the surface since.
2 – LA POLLA (PAN) (3/1) – Another filly who has shown the ability to sprint or go long, but It just looks like she may want to go a bit farther than today’s distance.
1 – DON WILLIAM R (20/1) – Been routing but that should just serve to get him fit for this. With the addition of blinkers & from the rail, I expect this one to be sent early. Worth a wager on top & a nice use underneath.
8 – 2 – 1 – 3
8 – EXCLUSIVO (2/1) – 15 of 17 and a standout here. Doubtful we get 2/1 but anything close to that I would be value.
9 – FRAY ANGELICO (PAN) (9/2) – Some sharp works off a pair of scores and has shown the ability to carry top weight. Saez aboard.
2 – JALA JALA (MEX) (9/5) – Irad Ortiz won the Classic with her last year from well off the pace over a sloppy track. Not sure why she’s entered here and not the classic? Exclusivo is no slouch and she’ll have to be at her very best. At a low price, there’s enough to question to look elsewhere.
8 – 9 – 2 – 6
3 – KUKULKAN (MEX) (3/5) – I’m not going to overthink this. How do you make a case against a horse who’s 13-13? I guess we take the free square.
10 – BUKOWSKI (VEN) (6/1) – If you want to make a win bet, this guy might offer you a fair price from post 10. Jaramillo owns this race and looks like the logical choice if there’s to be an upset.
4 – EL SALSERO (20/1) – Improving sort that has speed and a good draw. The price is right to use underneath.
3 – 10 – 4 – 2
EARLY PICK 5
RACE 1) 8 / 3.4.7 / 1.6.7 / 3.5 / 2.6.9
LATE PICK 5
RACE 7) 2.6 / 2.3.4 / 188.8.131.52 / 2.8.9 / 3.10
BEST OF LUCK!