Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, December 29, 2018
All Selections made for FAST and FIRM. Follow me on twitter @LightningJay_ for any updates.)
3 – PARTICULARITY (3/1) – Gets top call on class edge. Appears this 3yo son of Old Fashioned (Unbridled’s Song) could be a solid $20k horse. Versatile enough to win on the front end or stalk. With speed coming from the rail in Trio of Champions, he may sit and use class to pounce late.
1 – TRIO OF CHAMPIONS (5/2) – The rail at GP (especially on sprints) is the place to be if you have speed. It would be no surprise if this guy wires the field. I suggest going 2 deep in the opener in your pick 5’s.
2 – REAL FAST MUSIC (7/2) – Steps up after a nice score at 7 furlongs at GPW. Figures suggest he’s a shade below the top 2 but has enough speed to contend for a share.
3 – 1 – 2 – 6
10 – WHO CARES (5/1) – Would expect to see this 4yo son of Papa Clem get claimed as he drops to his lowest level and has been very competitive sprinting on the turf against allowance company. He stretches out on the main track for Kenneally and gets the services of Saez who figures to have this one rolling late.
1 – EXCLUSIVE ZIP (5/2) – Finished strongly on the turn back in distance last time and comes right back at the same level for Servis. Extra furlong should be no problem.
7 – HOOKUP (10/1) – Another who drops to his lowest level and is in good form for top connections. 1 – 1 at the distance and has strong late pace numbers. Irad Ortiz gets the call on this 4yo son of Union Rags. Anything close to the morning line warrants a win bet.
10 – 1 – 7 – 2
8 – MYSTERY WITNESS (3/5) – 2yo son of Successful appeal goes first off the claim for Navarro and will offer little value. Away slowly, made a middle move before flattening, given time off, turned in a solid work last time, and drops in class. Hard to go against.
3 – SOVEREIGN WARRIOR (8/1) – Since no one else stands out on form, you look to the first-time starters. Kathleen O’Connell sends out this 2yo son of Twirling Candy and based on works & pedigree he looks like he wants the turf. Might be good enough if the top choice doesn’t fire.
5 – HEATED ELEMENT (8/1) – This son of Congrats has shown a bit of speed against much tougher. The price is cut in half and he adds blinkers for this off a nice workout. He could get bold on the lead at a price.
8 – 3 – 5 – 6
3 – VISION PERFECT (7/2) – 6yo is at the top of his game these days. Scored here in the Silks Run back in March finishing full of run. If the favorite has lost a step, this guy is too sharp!
5 – PAY ANY PRICE (7/5) – One of the reasons I enjoy doing selections is the opportunity it provides to give out what I consider value plays…horses that I like, that the public shouldn’t, running against flawed favorites. Anybody can give out chalk! That said, you could make a small case that the favorite here is 8 years old and in a new barn off a layoff.
1 – FIELD TRIP (20/1) – Tremendous advantage from the rail in these sprints! 4yo has shown some improvement this year and he has enough speed to show up at a big price.
3 – 5 – 1 – 9
6 – MR. KISSES (5/2) – Early speed numbers are solid. Must avoid dueling with rival just inside of him. Worked nicely for Baxter and regular rider Panici stays aboard.
5 – STAR JUANCHO (4/1) – Has shown good speed from the gate since Jaramillo’s been on, while just missing in a stake last time at the Ocala Training Center. Looks like he’ll try to get the jump on Mr. Kisses.
3 – MORNING BUZZ (2/1) – Early pace figures just aren’t strong enough so crafty Saez may let the speed duel develop in front of him. Doesn’t appear to be as sharp as he was earlier this year when taking the Peeping Tom at Aqu.
6 – 5 – 3 – 1
7 – GOLDWOOD (15/1) – 4yo daughter of Medaglia d’ Oro out of a Rahy mare has every right to show improvement after time off. Plenty of early pace pressure projected here, with one of the fastest horses drawing post 12. That would set things up perfectly for the late players. Workouts have been stellar for new trainer Duarte and if we get anything near the morning line, we have a value play!
4 – MIZ MAYHEM (4/1) – She’s taken a pair of turf sprint stakes here at GP and comes off a win in the Lightning City at TB. Enough speed to wire these or can sit just off the lead. Draws ideally.
12 – GIRLS KNOW BEST (4/1) – With the best early pace numbers in the group, this daughter of Caleb’s Posse may be vulnerable late from post 12 if she has to work to get the lead.
7 – 4 – 12 – 8
9 – BEAU TRACE (9/2) – Just not sold on the TAP firster. I could be dead wrong, and that’s fine, but I’m looking elsewhere. Modestly bred colt was squeezed at the start last time, but advanced along the rail. Would appear to appreciate the added distance. Took some tote action in that race and I look for him to brake much better and lay closer to the pace.
5 – ART G IS BACK (6/1) – Exchange Rate offspring are usually better on the grass, but this one has been training superbly over the dirt for this. The last 2 over 5 furlongs tell me he’s ready in this spot. Adds Lasix for debut and gets Irad Ortiz.
6 – SQUEEZEADIOS (6/1) – Ran well on debut back in July and the work tab has been solid leading up to this. Not sold on him at 7 furlongs, but still one to consider.
9 – 5 – 6 – 4
9 – MRS. RAMONA G. (9/2) – Daughter of Kantharos has improved dramatically since the spring under the patient hand of Jeremiah Englehart. She tries 2 turns and Saez opts off, but a forward style can play well at GP and Landeros is no slouch!
2 – TAKECHARGEDELILAH (20/1) – Stakes placed over yielding turf, this daughter of Take Charge Indy has shown a strong closing kick and improving numbers. New connections add blinkers and at the price she offers plenty of value.
10 – TOO CHARMING (12/1) – Came back from the summer to post her best number and the time in between efforts suggest a repeat is probable.
9 – 2 – 10 – 7
6 – SI QUE ES BUENA (ARG) (15/1) – Was closing strongly to the top choice in the Long Island last time in her first start in the US. Those fractions were slow, yet she kicked strongly. Her 2nd start comes for Graham Motion and she has every right to improve.
4 – TRICKY ESCAPE (7/2) – 5yo mare is plenty tough and has the ability to close out races over a distance of ground. She’s not a stone closer but a grinder, and that should play well here.
3 – HOLY HELENA (5/2) – Jerkins adds Lasix for the first time and let’s see if that helps her return to form. She does her best running late so she’ll have to outsprint them. Not wiling to take a low price on anybody.
6 – 4 – 3 – 7
12 – LASCAUX (20/1) – Hard to really know what will happen in a 2 mi. marathon. You can only project based on much shorter distances. Most people will gravitate to the horse with the best closing performances but those happen when there’s some sort of pace upfront. Much like a 1 ½ mile race, I’m looking for stayers and a price. Little known sire is by A.P. Indy and the mare is by Giant’s Causeway. Should be able to run all day. These horses can improve drastically from start to start and he shows a nice progression in numbers. Well worth a wager at anything near that line.
6 – ARCHER ROAD (10/1) –This 4yo son of Kentucky Derby winning sire Leroidesanimeaux – (Animal Kingdom) beat a field of 12 others here going 1 ½ miles with a steady grind. He’s rested and has worked sharp for this. Offers nice value.
3 – SOGLIO (9/5) – Has come up a bit short in some of his distance races. That’s not what I’m looking for at 2 miles and certainly not at 9/5. Vulnerable!
12 – 6 – 3 – 2
4 – BREAKING THE RULES (4/1) – Love the breeding…War Front by an A.P. Indy mare. Bred to be good and to run all day on any surface! Very professional last time out. Working well under Shug for this and Irad Ortiz stays aboard.
5 – LOOKIN TO STRIKE (12/1) – Goes for his 4th straight win and 3rd stakes victory in a row. Casse trainee has every right to continue the streak.
11 – THERAPIST (7/2) – NY bred is a win candidate on his best. Trying to bounce back after disappointing effort in Saranac. Long series of works that appear average.
4 – 5 – 11 – 12
BEST OF LUCK!