Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, December 22, 2018
by Jay Cymerman
(All selections made for FAST and FIRM)
6 – RATTLE’M (6/1) – There are things to like about that opener for the son of Rattlesnake Bridge (Tapit). Turned in a solid work for top conditioner Becker since and a big step forward is possible.
5 – HE’S SMOKIN HOT (6/1) – 3rd start comes with a slight drop from state-bred maiden specials to open $50k. Would expect Paco to send this time and he could get bold on the lead.
3 – LUCKY RUNS NORTH (7/2) – New connections here, and another dropping from restricted maiden specials. Hasn’t shown much early speed so I hesitate to rank higher.
6 – 5 – 3 – 2
7 – DULL KNIFE (3/1) – 2yo by Scat Daddy has been working well for TAP. Bred to go long on the turf, he should be ready off the bench in this first level allowance.
3 – BLUEGRASS PARKWAY (10/1) – Graduated with a nice off the pace effort against a solid group at Kee and has every right to keep moving forward here with Gaffalione up at a nice price.
1 – ENGLISH BEE (4/1) – Gave a solid effort from off the pace last time at Kee over some very soft turf. Can move forward off that. Landeros for Motion and a cozy draw.
7 – 3 – 1 – 6
3 – ORRA MOOR (2/1) – Orb filly looks ready off the work tab for Pletcher and Johnny V. Love to see strong 5f works followed by a shorter breeze.
6 – PURPLE GIRL (10/1) – Shackleford filly looks like she’ll be quick early. In a short field, that can be dangerous!
4 – TAPIT’S PRINCESS (5/2) – Hard to argue with the breeding and work tab. Final decisions should be made by paddock appearance and tote action (or lack of it).
3 – 6 – 4
1 – SHARETHEBLAME (12/1) – Impressive bullet over the turf with the dogs up on Dec.5. Pedigree & rail draw for this sprint make 12/1 a bargain…if you can get it.
4 – OLYMPIC RUNNER (6/1) – Very nice work tab for this and being by Gio Ponti, we know she should like the turf. Could be very quick here and would be no surprise.
9 – LADY WORTHINGTON (7/5) – Would think that experience in the opener would benefit this daughter of Scat Daddy. Works have been good since, but she was well meant and had every opportunity. I will use her defensively.
1 – 4 – 9 – 5
6 – UNEXPLAINED (3/1) – Has beaten far better earlier this year and was much the best last time when dropping to this level. Connections obviously hoping for a taker along with the purse money. Makes you question just a little. One to watch in the paddock.
2 – BROWNS GAP (5/2) – 9 for 11 in the money for this 7yo who’s been very popular in the claim box. First time for Navarro and right back at the level so expect another solid effort.
5 – KING POWER (4/1) – Blinkers come off for sharp trainer Saffie Joseph who’s looking to get this 4yo son of To Honor and Serve to rate a bit and carry his speed on the stretch out. There are others in here with the same idea.
6 – 2 – 5 – 4
11 – MONDAYMORNINGMEMO (8/1) – Beat half the field last time while showing some speed. The price gets cut in half and Saez gets aboard. Worth a wager at anything near that line.
3 – DREAM OF GOD (6/1) – The wide trip while showing some speed on that extended sprint suggests better things for this son of Gemologist in his second start. Takes a big drop in class, but this is a very quick turnaround. Another I would need to see in the paddock.
6 – W W HANDSOME (20/1) – Showed some speed 2nd time out and takes another drop in class for solid connections. Worth a play at the price in a wide-open event.
11 – 3 – 6 – 4
1 – DROP KICK (10/1) – Quite a few you could make a case for, so it’s ok to look for a price. They tried last time to get this son of Power Broker (Pulpit) on the turf, but he ran well nonetheless. I agree with the connections that he should like the lawn. Draws the rail and gets Jose Ortiz in this his 2nd start for Maker. Possesses a nice stalking style and has enough upside at this price to take a small swing.
5 – COMETIN (12/1) – 5 for 7 at the distance, and stakes placed 2 back. Another I will gladly consider at a price.
12 – BANTU (9/2) – Fits nicely here. Beaten a little over 5 lengths while closing in a sprint at KD, and working strongly for this. Should be rolling late.
1 – 5 – 12 – 9
1 – R HAPPY ENDING (3/1) – Proven to carry her speed or sit just off it at this distance. Expecting a top effort 3rd start off the layoff and the cutback from 6 to 5 furlongs.
4 – CATHARSIS (8/1) – Has flashed 21 & change early fractions consistently and shown the ability to finish. Kathleen O’Connell conditions this 3yo filly by Kantharos who’ll have every chance to wire the field at a decent price.
9 – BRIGHT VENEZUELAN (12/1) – If a speed duel develops, this 3yo daughter of Justin Phillip should benefit at a good price.
1 – 4 – 9 – 6
10 – BRICKS AND MORTAR (9/2) – Chad Brown trainee makes first start of the year. A Grade 2 winner, this is obviously a prep, but the work tab is long and solid. No reason this son of Giant’s Causeway can’t roll past these on his way to better things.
7 – IRISH STRAIT (5/1) – Hard hitter was an unfortunate 3rd last time over yielding turf at Lrl. Motion has given him some time since, and he should be a major player against these in this spot.
1 – ZENNOR (4/1) – Best when allowed to settle and make one run. Leading rider Saez is aboard this Godolphin owned son of Medaglia d’Oro who is 9 for 15 lifetime in the money. From the rail he should be able to get a ground saving trip from which to launch.
10 – 7 – 1 – 3
9 – CONQUEST BIG E (10/1) – Winner of over $400k and a Gr2 here in March. Returned to form in latest and could be very hard to beat on the front end although there appears to be plenty of early challengers. Speed and class equals value.
2 – KROY (6/1) – Another who possesses early speed but not the class of the 9. From an inside post, Paco is figured to send.
8 – UNO MAS MODELO (2/1) – Overcame a terrible start and track bias to close from the clouds last time in a restricted stake. Sets up for a stalking trip from post 8 but that last race was a very demanding effort. You shouldn’t expect the same type of closing kick.
9 – 2 – 8 – 3
4 – WHO’S YOUR DRAMA (5/1) – Faces easier here and has some of the best late pace figures. One for one at the distance.
1 – RACE ME HOME (IRE) (4/1) – Honest sort who could regress, but has shown the ability to bounce back in these situations. Your call.
5 – BOLD RALLY (20/1) – Late runner gets in light for this and is very useful underneath at this distance.
4 – 1 – 5 – 8
BEST OF LUCK!
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