Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, December 1, 2018
2 – AND SHE’S GONE (10/1) – Purchased for $725k, this 2yo filly by War Front out of an Arch mare goes 2nd time for Motion and should really benefit from that troubled opener. From an inside post, over the brand new GP turf course, I’m willing to go with a bit of a price on a runner that’s expected to move forward.
5 – AVOCADO (6/1) – Well-backed in her opener, the turf is really what this gal was bred for. She’s by Noble Mission who’s a full brother to Frankel. Pletcher gets the services of last winter’s leading pilot Saez & she has every right to take another step and challenge for the win. Tough call between top 2 choices, but I’ll always go with the better price!
7 – WINGS OF DAWN (8/1) – $600k purchase by John Oxley for Mark Casse has Leparoux aboard. Casse is traditionally very good with 2 year olds & this gal can fire first time under his care. Adds lasix for the debut following a series of steady works.
6 – SOLAR KITTEN (9/2) – Could turn out to be a steal at only $20k! Ideally bred to go longer, she should move forward off that rallying effort over yielding turf at Kee. Look for her late.
13 – PRINCESS TRINA (20/1) – Obviously a terrible post & probably better suited to dirt. That said, she has posted some very quick numbers & would be one to consider underneath in your exotics.
2 – 5 – 7 – 6
3 – CAUTIOUS GIANT (3/1) – 5 for 9 at the specialist distance of 7f. & has early pace figures to be the speed of the speed. Appears to be sitting on a top effort and they’ll have to come catch him. He should offer a fair price.
1 – UNO MAS MODELO (2/1) – Much improved to say the least! From the rail, he will be stalking the choice & have every opportunity late. I just think he’ll be quite an underlay & there is a chance he could regress a bit here.
10 – CHUNNEL (8/1) – Strongest of the Navarro entries, he cuts back slightly and figures to have a say at the end. Coul be one of the best prices you’ll get today on a Navarro contender.
5 – MORNING BUZZ (6/1) – First off the claim for sharp trainer Saffie Joseph. Tough as nails & capable of stringing hard efforts in a row. Has numbers that fit here and loves the distance.
3 – 1 – 10 – 5
8 – BOURBON IN MAY (4/1) – Failed as a lukewarm choice in debut at Kee. but there was plenty to like about that effort which came over very soft turf. The son of More Than Ready was running on well down the lane and should appreciate the added distance. We’ll see if he handles the 2 turns as he is bred to do, but there are others in here that are live so I wouldn’t take too low of a price.
7 – LUCKY MIKE (5/1) – Has experience going 2 turns and showed that he may want a little more distance than this, but the addition of blinkers may keep this son of Handsome Mike in position where he won’t have so much to do late. Hopefully, that doesn’t take away from his closing kick.
3 – SKYCHIEF (9/5) – Just failed to last as the choice last time at CD while on an uncontested lead over a tiring turf course. Really, no excuses though. He adds blinkers and appears the one they’ll have to catch. Has the look of an underlay that may be vulnerable late.
5 – MANTRA (12/1) – I could very easily rank this one higher. $90k purchase has the breeding to improve his speed on the grass. Figures to benefit off that opening race and can sit just off the likely pacesetter (Skychief). The price will be right!
8 – 7 – 3 – 5
14 – FIRST GROWTH (10/1) – Won a stake here last year sprinting from post 12 and has the right style along with some of the best pace figures in this group. Very live longshot!
9 – BROTHER CHUB (5/1) – 3rd start off the layoff & appears to be sitting on a top effort. First or second in 10 of his 11 starts this year & has the perfect stalking style from an outside post in a field with plenty of speed on paper.
2 – APPEALING FUTURE (7/2) – 4yo Parx specialist is at his best right now. Could very well romp here but may have to be used a little from an inside draw and there is the chance he could regress a bit off that last effort. Nonetheless, a major win candidate.
3 – CREATIVE ART (8/1) – This hard-knocking 8yo is 44 for 75 in the money and has numbers that are very competitive. I expect this one to be double digits, since the majority of his races have come from TuP & Cby. But I think those efforts translate and the pace scenario is favorable to his running style from off the pace.
10 – HARRYHEE (12/1) – I don’t think anyone can go early with him as he is capable of a 21.4 opening quarter. That said, there is other speed and from an outside post, he appears vulnerable late. At double digit odds, he’s worth a wager just in case he forgets to stop!
14 – 9 – 2 – 3
8 – OXFORD COMMA (9/5) – Modestly bred 3yo filly has really come to hand for Amoss! 2 for 2 on the turf and has early pace figures that have her out in front as they turn for home! Class test late.
3 – BLUE BAHIA (4/5) – Not sure about that morning line, but definitely will be the betting choice. Servis has been giving this mare plenty of time between starts and her latest was on pace with her previous efforts, (nothing better.) Will be going for her 10th win in 19 starts, but I’m just not willing to take her at that price.
5 – LADY’S ISLAND (12/1) – It’s possible she could be sitting on a huge race! Capable of 21.4 speed! Most people won’t get past her 0 for 2 record on the turf, but with the addition of blinkers and Gaffalione, she will try to get the step on Oxford Comma and play catch me if you can! Beware!
8 – 3 – 5 – 2
9 – TWOCUBANBROTHERSU (8/1) – At 8 it might look on paper that this guy has lost a step, and maybe he has. But those last 3 races were against better company than he faces here. Top pilot Saez gets the mount and with his early speed, he should make the lead without losing too much ground and could be hard to run down late. Worth a win bet at 8/1 or higher.
5 – TO DARE (12/1) – 7 for 9 in the money with 4 wins at GP. Second in the Rough and Ready here last year and will look to run them down late. At the price, another win candidate and a nice exacta play with the front running choice.
2 – QUENANE (15/1) – Has solid numbers and a nice record here at GP. Will be tested for class but gets the services of Paco here who could secure a nice spot from which to launch. There’s value here at the price.
4 – DONJI (5/1) – Former $8k claimer, resurrected by Navarro…go figure! Not sure even he can work his magic to get this one home first, but if he fires his best, he’s capable of a solid finish.
9 – 5 – 2 – 4
1 – PERU (GB) (5/2) – The turn back from the mile and a half over soft ground should set her up perfectly for this. Second by a nose here last year in the CC Tiara. Draws a cozy spot for Leparoux & Maker.
9 – VALEDICTORIAN (7/2) – 9 wins and almost $350k earned for this daughter of Temple City who can use her speed to gain early position, quite possibly on the front end where she would be tough. Love the spacing of her races and comes in off a 46b bullet.
12 – STARSHIP JUBILEE (9/5) – Won the Gr2 Canadian at WO & was 4th in the G1 EP Taylor at 1 1/4 mi. Another who should like the turn back in distance and is working sharply. Finished 3rd behind Peru in CC Tiara.
2 – SHE’S SO FINE (20/1) – Diodoro – off the claim! Not up to these, but worth using in your exotics at a price.
1 – 9 – 12 – 2
3 – STARSHIP REINA (9/2) – Navarro has a strong entry here and I like the speed this one possesses. Toss that last 2 turn effort over the bull ring at CT. A one turn mile should be as far as she wants to go. Looks like the one to catch.
6 – EXPECT INDY (20/1) – This Indiana bred is not to be ignored. She has tactical speed and little know trainer Allen Iwinski takes over with some really good numbers, including 20% with first timers. Has the look of a live longshot.
4 – VIVA FOREVER (5/1) – Has been crushing suspect foes at Prx, but has numbers that fit in a wide open event.
11 – RADIANTRITHYM (10/1) – This Navarro runner may be overlooked, but that was a nice effort at Kee and she has the speed to overcome this seemingly impossible post. She makes sense underneath in your exotics.
9 – RANSOMED (10/1) – I’m including this one because it’s such a wide open race. Claimed by Van Belvoir for $40k and now first time Diodoro. Has been facing better and is in with solid shot at a nice price.
3 – 6 – 4 – 11 – 9
9 – DOWSE’S BEACH (8/5) – 10 for 33 with $600k earned. Now 7, was entered for $25k & has since regained the form that made him a runner up in the Play The King last year at WO. The draw here is not ideal which is why I wouldn’t take too low of a price.
7 – DANCE PROUDLY (8/1) – Second off the claim for Navarro & gets Jaramillo. That was a really quick time last out for this Indy bred and I expect him to run back to that effort.
1 – BUSHROD (8/1) – Should be the perfect late player! Won from off the pace at KD and had traffic issues in the Gr2 Nearctic. The turn back in distance is another plus. Not sure about this trainer change though?
11 – ROCKET HEAT (6/1) – 21.4 speed in the Gr2 Woodford at Kee, but the draw is killer. Will most likely get caught wide but could hang around.
9 – 7 – 1 – 11
8 – MONTCLAIR (IRE) (4/1) – Claimed for $5k by Servis last Oct and was dq’d in an overnight stakes! Looking for his 5th win in a row, but hoping there’s enough pace in here to chase. Lukewarm selection.
6 – AQUAPHOBIA (7/2) – Shortens up out of the G2 Knickerbocker. Closed for the win last time when doing a similar move over at SA. Works suggest another top effort.
1 – BIRDSNEST PARTY (8/1) – Not that much speed on paper here and this one should get a comfortable early lead where he can dictate. If left alone, he could go a long way (again)!
7 – SALUTE THE COLONEL (10/1) – Won a stake here over the summer and Leparoux will have this 4yo son of Colonel John rolling late at what should be a decent price!
11 – SLIM SHADEY (GB) (5/1) – 10yr old still competing well but would need some racing luck from that outside draw. Will make one run and can get there if he’s able to save ground at some point.
8 – 6 – 1 – 7 – 11
6 – AZTEC SENSE (2/1) – 11 time winner for Navarro couldn’t be doing better! A winner at this distance in stakes company, this 5yo son of Street Sense can sit the perfect stalking trip off the likely speed of the 7 & 8 or carry his own speed from wire to wire. One of the best bets on the card.
7 – FLOWERS FOR LISA (7/2) – Navarro has this race covered with this speedy daughter of Flower Alley. I think she’ll have company from the 8 which could set things up nicely for the top selection. Still talented enough to stick around and would be dangerous if the speed dual doesn’t develop.
3 – ST. LOUIE GUY (12/1) – At the top of his game for Diodoro! Fired a bullet to confirm. A very live longshot with enough early speed & a great post to stalk and pounce if good enough.
1 – RICH DADDY (12/1) – 7yo would do well to save all the ground and benefit from a speed dual upfront. Look for this one late to pick up any pieces.
5 – RACE ME HOME (IRE) (9/2) – Won at this distance at Saratoga last year & goes 2nd off the claim for Maker. Tyler G. aboard and he should get the right pace set up. Would be no surprise.
6 – 7 – 3 – 1 – 5
LATE PICK 4
RACE 8) 18.104.22.168.11 / 1.7.9 / 22.214.171.124.11 / 3.6.7
BEST OF LUCK!