Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, February 23, 2018
The rainbow pick 6 pool keeps building at Gulfstream Park! Today, the carryover is $1,359,960. That wager begins in race 6, with a post time of 3:05 PM EST. The first of 11 races on the Friday card will be 12:35 PM EST (roughly).
We’ve got Jason Perry (@jmanmetsfan1) providing free picks & analysis of the entire program. Jason’s been writing about New York racing for a while now, and we’re happy to have him handicapping Florida racing this winter. Give him a follow on twitter when you can.
Good luck, and take it away, Jason!
Hard to be creative in the opener. Indian Chaser (6) is an eight time winner running against a field made up entirely of two time winners sans Roll it Gal (1) who has been awful in her two races this year. She’s clearly the best early speed in a field without much of it. In her last start she rebounded first off the claim as you would expect from a Navarro runner, but that said she probably shouldn’t have lost after establishing a clear lead. The difference on Friday might be the jock change to get the weight off. Navarro has been successful employing Medina.
A J’s Amex (8) is on a roll torching money, and I don’t know why we would see improvement three races removed from being claimed from “the Juice Man.” She took a step backwards from a speed perspective last out, and is probably racing for another minor share.
E Z’s Mistress (5) would be a more logical upsetter racing second off the claim for the capable Wilensky. The one mile distance is the question, as this mare has never gone eight furlongs. Often these closing sprinters hang at longer distances. She is also quite the money burner after losing at 5-1 or less in her last twelve starts, and ten of those times she was less than 3-1.
I suppose White Moon (2) could fire here with a clean break. She’s had trouble in her last two races at the start. She’d probably need to rate to win though, and it’s uncertain if she’s capable of doing that.
Won’t spend much time on this race. Beautiful Ally (7) has five straight second place finishes. She turns back in distance, but that’s not necessarily a good thing when you are dealing with route speed. She’s just one for twenty-eight lifetime with the lone win coming on grass. The jock and trainer are both winless for the meet as well. So while she certainly fits against this group, I would have a hard time making her my top pick for the aforementioned reasons.
Lexi’s Doll (6) has been second twice and third twice in four starts at Gulfstream. She gets weight off with the jock change, but do you really want a one for sixty-two rider? I think the winner will likely come from one of the three inside posts.
Adosinda (3) might have needed the race off the freshening, and she did a lot of the dirty work exiting a common race against a couple of today’s rivals. She forced a quick pace for this level, and really didn’t fall apart all things considered. She should be able to carve out more reasonable fractions while taking the hood off. I would think that Wolfson would eventually be able to do more with her than the prior barn she raced for three back.
Schmiss (1) didn’t have as clean of a run as she could have most recently. Marcus Vitali is a useful conditioner that could have her more fit second off the short layoff. I’d want a little more than the morning line odds bough. Simplychardonayanae (2) drops to her lowest level yet. She’ll race route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt, while being reunited with the rider she earned her lone win for. She’s getting back to the distance and surface she began her career, an angle that I am fond of.
Hard Way Winner (7) is the best speed in a race there isn’t much of it. In his last start he was never able to make it to the top, and consequently yielded late. On Friday he should be able to clear, even with the similar outside draw he just had. Two of his six rivals exit the same race.
Oh My Warrior (2) finished second at a big price that day after enjoying a perfect trip.
I really don’t want him or the third place finisher from their common race, Bee Quiet (5). Jose Ortiz will ride again virtually assuring an underlay. His fastest races don’t look fast enough to beat any of these on their best day. Miago (4) had a dream trip victory four back, and then was thrown to the wolves, at least relatively, in his last three starts where he was uncompetitive.
Can’t Say No (3) broke his maiden at Woodbine over a synthetic surface in fine fashion. It looks like he was a private purchase for Looch Racing who took a couple unsuccessful shots against better on the main track. Now he is offered for a tag, and I have to say I’m really surprised that the connections didn’t try to find a spot on the turf for him. The win on synthetic suggests to me that he may like the lawn. Be that as it may he ends up here now as a previously trained by Jorge Navarro runner. That’s usually not good.
Downrange (6) was a mild upset winner in his lone start. He will have to improve if he’s going to stay perfect tackling winner’s for the first time. It’s conceivable, but generally difficult with horses running at this level.
I didn’t really understand the money Fortune Cookie (1) took in his last pair. However, he merits respect dropping in class on Friday. He should enjoy a nice stalking trip with a rail draw, and his biggest obstacle may actually be his struggling jockey. It’s really hard to believe Joel Rosario has only eight wins for the meet going into this week.
Mohican (1) really hasn’t gotten better moving from Bill Mott to Mike Maker. That isn’t a surprise though, it’s a pretty lateral barn change. His lack of early speed is a hindrance, but with an inside draw and the addition of blinkers he could be more forwardly placed.
The hanging Runaway Posse (5) was a real surprise when able to grind out an illusive win stretching out to two turns. It seemed like he would be in the N1X level forever, so perhaps the drop in class provided a jolt. He was claimed away from Gargan for a lesser outfit that day so I’m real circumspect he can repeat, and definitely will look elsewhere at the low ML odds.
You can also have Bold Daddy (7) for team Pletcher. He’s a $180,000 son of Scat Daddy that didn’t make it to the races until July as a three year old. The late start is a concern, as is the fact he debuted for a tag at 12-1. I was against him last out when victorious off the layoff for 35K, but he grinder out a win versus a weak group. Clearly this gelding has problems, and win or lose he won’t provide enough value.
Barn mate Candy Asset (4) is a lot more intriguing. He too has his own issues as a Pletcher trainee that debuted for a tag. He won his first two starts, then had a legitimate excuse at this level when seeking a third straight win, but finished third beaten about a length. He got “pinballed” at the start, and I think with a clean break he should look to get the lead early. That should make him dangerous.
Little No Way (6) exits the same race without as much excuse. He’s a consistent sort that’s fired in all starts except the debut and the yielding ground race at KD.
I don’t have the guts to pick Storm Ruler (2) on top, but I think he can outrun his odds. His lack of two turn credentials is a concern, but I’ve always loved these Stormy Atlantic progeny. This race is light on speed, and he figures to be forwardly placed exiting sprint races.
Trouble in Phoenix (3) could be a solid claim for Vitali. This is a significant step forward, but it’s nice to see Irad take the call.
Abounding Legacy (4) is the logical favorite exiting races versus some quick rivals. This race is light on early speed, and he could find himself on the front end should Zayas wish. Most likely he will end up stalking the pace set by Storming My Way (1) who probably needs to send early with the inside post. I’d like to see some kind of pace materialize because I believe in a couple off the pace runners. Graded Stakes placed Realm (2) has not been the same horse he was a year ago. He could wake up turning back in distance and coming in off a string of really nice works. I’m just not excited at anything close to 2-1. This looks like a good spot for Impressive Edge (3). He likes this course, and both of his career wins came sprinting. Dale Romans is good with horses returning from layoffs of this nature, and this colt is reunited with the jock he had success with. This pricey son of Harlan’s Holiday has demonstrated talent, particularly when sprinting. Tyler U (6) gets back on the surface he began his career while taking a significant class drop. He faced considerably better in his last pair. This horse has some talent, and if he can transfer turf form to the main track he could be a fine long shot option. I’d certainly use him.
In His Image (5) will be out there winging it in a turf dash without much other early speed. He may have needed the last off the long layoff, and doesn’t seem to be a red flag. He has a win and a second at this distance and retains the top jock.
Coleman Rocky (1) goes first off the claim for Servis who is nothing short of lethal. It’s a curious claim given this gelding’s current form. You don’t see horses claimed very often that were over 25-1 at post time. It’s interesting to see him turned back in distance like this, but remember, before Servis was good at everything he was the king of turn sprinters. It can only be encouraging that he runs here as well as the fact that Irad is riding. If the race had more early speed type he would definitely be a top choice.
Diamond Majesty (4) has not been seen in over thirty months. He returns as a first time gelding with a low profile jock named to ride. I must admit that his morning activity is encouraging, but regardless he’s pretty hard to trust. Three and four races back he was banging heads with the likes of Richard’s Boy. Win or lose he will likely be more well supported than he should be.
Harry’s Gone Gray (3) is probably not going to cross the wire first, but I think he’s one you can rely on to fire some shot.
This is a legitimate drop in class for Wishfully (6) who could sit a perfect stalking trip. He looks too slow, but from a pace perspective should enjoy the right trip in this spot.
Lukewarm favorite Miz Mayhem (4) seemingly is amongst a declining form cycle. She is now offered for 50K after a subpar main track effort. She can certainly wake up, but I’m more interested in finding a better price in a race that looks pretty wide open.
It’s surprising to see Classy Dancer (7) return from the layoff unprotected. Pletcher could have opted to not open up a claiming opportunity since this well bred filly is just a one time winner. It turns me off a bit, and even if it doesn’t mean anything, she doesn’t figure to offer much value for top flight connections.
Overdraft (6) races first off the claim for Englehart. If she can transfer her dirt form to the grass she would fit versus these. In five furlong turf races I prefer horses with experience though.
Gran Letitizia (2) broke her maiden in her second start getting on the grass for the first time. She underwhelmed in her subsequent start against winners when unable to get the lead. I think the plan has to be to go hard early with Jamarillo once again taking the call. You have to love when he rides for this barn as he posts monster numbers for Barboza.
Burke’s Garden (3) should be the one that gets the right trip. She won last out dropping in class besting ten rivals including a next out winner, and is well spotted on Friday where she will be protected from a claim. These Speightstown progeny are fantastic sprinting on grass.
Look I hate this race. I’m giving predictions only
I don’t care for anyone here, but I’m always chasing trainer Michelle Nehei so I’ll take a shot with Spring Joy (7) dropping in class. I suspect we will get more than the listed 4-1 morning line odds.
You know what to expect from Going to the Beach (6), and he’s an obvious inclusion in exotics as one of the few who have shown remote signs of life.
I never like seeing horses leave the Christophe Clement barn, but first time gelding Bakelite (8) need not improve a bit to factor here.
Conquest Hardcandy (4) and Team of Teams (6) should ensure an honest pace here. Of the two I definitely prefer the former at a much better price. She can get bravo on occasion, and if she gets clear she’s a little dangerous. If they both go I’ll look for an off the pace runner, but unfortunately that lands us on short priced horses.
Lido (2) rarely gets an honest pace to run at, and should finally on Friday. She’s typically faced better, and if she can keep contact early as she did in her last start, I think she will be tough.
I prefer her a bit over Noble Ready (3) who should also work out a nice trip. Sometimes with these Clement runners you don’t see a lot of improvement once established.
I’ll pass on TAP here because I doubt Psalmody (1) is going to get any better, and she won’t offer good value.
In the wide open finale I’ll take Cheytac (6) dropping in class, and getting back onto the surface he ran his two best races over. His grass races at Keeneland last fall weren’t that bad, and they came against significantly better than these. Trainer Darren Miller isn’t going well right now, but he’s probably better than his record indicates. He’s also been successful when he’s gotten hungry so to speak. He has won twice in three tries dropping from straight maidens to maiden claimers.
Jailhouse Kitten (10) just missed last out when dropped to this level. He enjoyed a perfect trip under Jose Ortiz, and I’m not sure if a repeat of that race would be good enough to graduate on Friday. Obviously he must be included, and would not be a surprise, but I think others can spring an upset.
Toss the last for Hey Howie (9) after a tough trip from a wide post. However, prior to that he has had his shots though. I see a small share at best.
Ox Bro (7) appears headed in the right direction. He’s got some tactical speed that should serve him well here. Marcus Vitali is a good conditioner, but he’s not known for claiming horses, and he took this horse from a pretty good barn.
He will also have to contend with Long Blade (12) on the front end. That colt could certainly factor second time around two turns for a real strong outfit.
I was interested in Masquerader (4) in his debut, and will give him another shot here. That was a useful debut from an outside post, and he could move forward as a second time starter.
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